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archbrix on 05 February 2025
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I think it's unlikely that Switch 2 is as cheap as $349 and a $299 price point is a piranha plant pipe dream. $399 in today's market is perfectly acceptable for a new game system that delivers the goods. And something with Switch 2's technical capabilities that can be used as both a home console and a portable applies (with the right software, of course).

But just as there are plenty of people that will make Switch 2 sell great at $400, there's still the market of potential new customers that don't spend that much (plus $70 on games) that Nintendo is not going to abandon. At least not until a Switch 2 Lite arrives, and even that I don't think will launch for as little as $199. This is why I believe that Switch 1 still has a 10 year total life span for its legacy, just like the NES, and temporary price reductions/bundles will help it along the way.

When you consider what software we could see this year:

Metroid Prime 4, Xenoblade, Pokemon Legends: Confirmed
Prime 1 & 2 ports, Wind Waker HD, Twilight Princess HD, appealing bundles (SMBW): Likely
A Switch Sports or RFA sequel, F-Zero GX port, Kid Icarus Uprising port, Yoshi's Wooly World port, Pokemon Legends special edition Switch: Possible

That, along with the "niche" IP title we've heard rumored would make for a pretty solid 2025, all things considered. Switch's days selling ~10m/year are over going forward, but sales are not going to just disappear for a system with a library as strong as what the Switch offers, particularly if there is an official price drop in its future this holiday or next year, which I still believe is possible. Not to mention that anyone buying into the Switch ecosystem now has a future for their games/account with its successor.

The Switch beating the sales of the PS2 is obviously not Nintendo's priority, but when you consider that what is paramount for the company just happens to align with that outcome, it becomes far more likely that it finishes with the same end result.

Last edited by archbrix - on 05 February 2025