I expect Nintendo to keep releasing cross-gen first party games until people straight up stop playing the original Switch. Especially if Switch 2 is priced at $399 (though I expect $349), there will be room for a lower priced OG Switch that will still play all first party games for years. If that’s how they go about it 160M should be a lock.

Current sales suggest that Switch outsells 2019 numbers next year, especially until the launch of Switch Lite back in 2019. So 2024 should be the first year in which we meet 2017/18/early19 numbers again with a weekly base below 200k. That still would be pretty good for such an old system.

The upcoming games lineup for 2023 suggests full first party support for next year. No signs for a need of any successor yet.

Switch performs better than I would have ever thought. It should reach 150M without any problems with a good chance becoming the most successful video game system of all time.

King Switch is coming for 160 million by spring 2025

They will release in november Pokemon Scarlet/Violet and then we have Zelda:Tears of the Kindom (may 2023). Hmm... I don't know. Between 140-145 mi. Even if Nintendo does have some ace up the sleeve they will save it for Switch 2.

Looking at this the dales trajectory and the likelihood of nintendo waiting for switch 2 for a longer time than expected, it will atleast be within margin of error of the ps2. I think switch will be the best selling console ever when all is said and done.

I think it'll probably end up between 155 and 160m, but definitely a chance to break 160m.

Successor likely won't come out for 2 to 2.5 years, and they've got Pokemon soon, and then Zelda. After that there's supposedly Prime remake, maybe Prime2+3 remasters, maaaybe WW/TP HD, Prime 4, Pikmin 4, possibly DK, whatever other games they've announced for next year, more MK8D course waves, obviously a 2D Mario is gonna hit at some point and that's an automatic 20m seller and a HW mover, and then of course they still have a bunch more smaller series they could bring in 2023/24/25. I could see another Mario Party as well towards the end of Switch's life. And it's always possible there will be one more Pokemon towards the end of Switch's life unless the next one ends up being cross gen for the Switch 2 launch which is a possbility.

Then there's always the possibility of price cuts, as I doubt in 2+ years when Switch 2 comes out at let's say $300 or $350 we're gonna have Switch and Switch OLED selling at the same price as the new system, so LITE/OG/OLED should at least each drop $50 at some point and maybe another smaller cut later on.

Then there's the question of if Nintendo is gonna do the Nintendo Select's games at some point for the Switch and drop a bunch of their first party games to $30 which would be an enticing offer for anyone who has held out on getting a Switch.

I think 150m is guaranteed at this point. Ending up within 2-3 million above or below PS2 I think is very likely. But >160m is a possibility if Switch 2 doesn't launch until 2025 and if Nintendo has price drops and plenty more games planned for Switch the next two years.

I don't think it'll reach 160m. Rol what happened to the thread tho, I wanted to go back over what you laid out when you first posted...

This past quarter not gonna lie sort of tempered my expectations with how well the Switch will sell, but still think its gonna be close to PS2 sales numbers by the end of it. Really hard to tell and it really depends on when the Switch successor releases and if we'll actually see a price cut and new models.

Did you miss the site getting hacked?

The site got hacked and all of my posts got deleted. Unfortunately, nobody quoted my original post, so the next best thing is this follow-up post from February 2022:

So let's see how it holds up:

After Nintendo's downward revision for the current fiscal year, Switch is on pace to hit ~124m shipped by the end of December 2022, so in line with the modest expectations above.

Breath of the Wild slipped into 2023 as expected, but 2022's holiday game doesn't come from EAD Tokyo; it's the next generation of Pokémon which I assumed to release in late 2023. Doesn't really matter though, because at the moment it's just two games of similar caliber swapping places. There's still no reason to anticipate a Switch successor in 2023, rather there is more reason to expect 2024 or later due to the Mario Kart 8 DLC that got announced after the above post had been written; said DLC runs through the whole of 2023. In short: While some people are back to doubting 160m+ after Nintendo's latest financial report, I am not flustered by the lower numbers, because I didn't calculate with everything playing out in the best way possible to begin with.

Of course the next Switch revision will be key to keep 2023 at a high level, but it would be pretty insane of Nintendo to bungle Switch's late life after they squeezed everything out of the 3DS just one generation before. There were six 3DS models, Switch is at only three as of now and Switch is much more successful than the 3DS ever was. One important thing that I had said in the original post of this thread is that a Switch Pro would turn most doubters into believers. I don't know if Nintendo will go for such a substantial upgrade, but Switch's final revision being 2021's OLED model would be just sad, so there has to be at least something else.

What I do know is that price cuts are off the table after this year of record inflation in the USA and Europe, so that's something we definitely won't see in 2023. But value-added bundles would work: Same hardware prices, but with a pack-in game.

As for 2023's software lineup, we don't know anything beyond May, but what has been confirmed is solid. Fire Emblem, Octopath Traveller 2, Kirby, Tears of the Kingdom. That's not shabby for the first few months of the year and there's of course a bunch of third party titles too. Ideally, a Switch revision should launch with Tears of the Kingdom because it just makes sense.