The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Slownenberg]

I think it'll probably end up between 155 and 160m, but definitely a chance to break 160m.

Successor likely won't come out for 2 to 2.5 years, and they've got Pokemon soon, and then Zelda. After that there's supposedly Prime remake, maybe Prime2+3 remasters, maaaybe WW/TP HD, Prime 4, Pikmin 4, possibly DK, whatever other games they've announced for next year, more MK8D course waves, obviously a 2D Mario is gonna hit at some point and that's an automatic 20m seller and a HW mover, and then of course they still have a bunch more smaller series they could bring in 2023/24/25. I could see another Mario Party as well towards the end of Switch's life. And it's always possible there will be one more Pokemon towards the end of Switch's life unless the next one ends up being cross gen for the Switch 2 launch which is a possbility.

Then there's always the possibility of price cuts, as I doubt in 2+ years when Switch 2 comes out at let's say $300 or $350 we're gonna have Switch and Switch OLED selling at the same price as the new system, so LITE/OG/OLED should at least each drop $50 at some point and maybe another smaller cut later on.

Then there's the question of if Nintendo is gonna do the Nintendo Select's games at some point for the Switch and drop a bunch of their first party games to $30 which would be an enticing offer for anyone who has held out on getting a Switch.

I think 150m is guaranteed at this point. Ending up within 2-3 million above or below PS2 I think is very likely. But >160m is a possibility if Switch 2 doesn't launch until 2025 and if Nintendo has price drops and plenty more games planned for Switch the next two years.