If you base it on the DS, then you have to expect the same timeline the 3DS went through during its launch year. The 3DS tremendously underperformed which forced Nintendo to issue a major price cut that was so severe that it sandwiched the 3DS at $170 between the DSi at $150 and the DSi XL at $180. With this kind of setup it's no wonder that the backwards compatible 3DS cut into DS sales in a significant way.

We don't know what Switch's successor price will be nor its year 1 lineup, plus we lack reasons to assume that it could be as bad as the 3DS following the DS. In the event of lack of knowledge, I refrain from assuming the worst and the best case scenarios as the likeliest ones. So if we default to the middle, yes, 11m this fiscal year are good enough to push Switch past 160m.

Nintendo tends to tie games to SKUs that make sense. Metroid Dread was pitched as a home console-scale game, so it launched alongside a new premium SKU. On the other hand, Echoes of Wisdom screams handheld with its continuation of the artstyle that was used in the remake of a Game Boy Zelda game. This special Switch Lite SKU is not at odds with a revision coming.

The Switch Lite in 2019 was announced out of the blue with no rumors accompanying it beforehand; it happened in July 2019, only two months before its launch. And while there wild rumors and speculation about a new Switch SKU in 2021, the OLED was absolutely not what was fantasized about. So neither previous event supports your argument here. If there's a new revision coming in September or October like I expect, then its announcement will happen in either July or August.

We are late in the lifecycle of Switch, so I don't expect another premium SKU, but rather the opposite. Especially because of the reluctance to cut the price of the hardware.

Since there's already a handheld-only SKU that can't switch like a Switch, I don't see a problem with launching a home console-only SKU at this stage. The Lite didn't threaten the value of a hybrid (it was consistently the worst-selling SKU), so a TV-only unit isn't going to threaten it either, not now or going forward when the time has come for Switch 2. No screen, battery and built-in control inputs save costs, so bundling this SKU with either a pair of Joy-Cons or a Pro Controller should make it possible to sell it at the same price as the Lite.

If the number of production lines is a concern, then just one of the existing models (namely the original hybrid) needs to be phased out.

Yeah, at this point, the only SKU left that makes sense is a TV-only model. The problem is that it would destroy the Switch concept. Sure, The Lite alreday destroyed that concept but at least it was still in line with the philospohy of "playing everywhere". But who knows, maybe a TV-only model could be tiny and be easily carried around. From the various surveys Nintendo made regarding the use of the Switch, i.e. portable-mode, TV-mode or both, the result was that not an insignificant percentage of people using the Switch mainly or even only in TV-mode. Surely, the result was noted by Nintendo and they are clever enough to make bank on it, i.e. releasing a budget TV-only model, still overprized as usual for a Nintendo product but nevertheless around the price of a Switch Lite.

The Wii had several revisions like the Wii Family Edition, Wii Mini, etc. Each iterations was cheaper than the last, but would continually cut features. I'm not sure what could be cut beyond the Switch Lite to get costs down...would a "digital only" Extra Lite system be possible? Charge $150 and that thing would practically fly off store shelves.

CheddarPlease said: Spoiler! I just found this random image of a purported SIE PS2 plaque saying the final sales total is 160,636,885 from April. Given that people haven't said anything about I suspect the consensus is that it's not legit but I'd be curious to hear if anyone has any info on this

The consensus with that image is that it is most likely a fake. If Shawn Layden posted it that would be an entirely different story as he posted a similar image of the PSP with the exact number of units produced of the handheld.

The DS Lite also got a price cut in 2011 though so there was still some gap between it and the 3DS after that and the Switch falling a little bit short of the DS's post successor wouldn't be the worst case scenario since the DS shipped 17.5m in its final fiscal year before the 3DS came out so the Switch wouldn't need to fall off as hard to fall a bit short. The worst case scenario would be it falling off harder followed by it falling off equally as hard. The Switch Lite being a notably cheaper option will help avoid those scenarios though.

To be clear at this point it definitely has a good shot of reaching 160m, I just think there's still a reasonable chance it falls a bit short depending on what Nintendo does over the next couple years.

What I said above.

The real problem of this whole ordeal is if the Switch gets into the 155M+ range but doesn't reach the 160M+ What should we do ? Like this would likely end up on a huge debate over which of the PS2 or the Switch gets the title of best selling console with no end in sight ... Forever ...

I am hoping the Switch clears 160M so we don't have to worry about which one sold more. 

(Hi long time reader of this thread, first comment)

I suspect it depends on how much support Nintendo give the system after the successor comes out. I can see Nintendo using the Switch Lite as a sort of small pocket handheld cheap alternative to the successor console for a few years. It's no coincidence the new version is a Zelda Switch Lite special edition being released I think also Nintendo have more switch games than expected in the pipeline.

I'm confident at more life in the Switch as no one expected a few of the reveals in the Nintendo Direct 2 days ago. We also haven't seen any sort of price drop boost as Nintendo have not done one and that is surely coming in the next year. That's where the switch can have a continued boost against the DS.  Given the Switch 2 has been predicted to sell at $400, that does leave space for a cheap console that still has games coming and a wide library and it looks like they are cleverly using remakes/remasters to keep the console going with a few key new titles here and there. Looks to me Nintendo still has a good line-up in their back pocket until 2025 and 2026 at least to keep sales going, even as they decline. 

It looks to me they will be following the 3DS end of generation tactic rather than the DS one. Expect a few new surprise titles, plenty of ports, remakes and remasters, price drops and new model/special editions to keep if falling off a cliff edge in sales.

Im confident  Switch will reach 165 - 170 million 

Lots of comparison's about the DS end, but that was unique where the DSi was more expensive than the 3DS at one point, as one poster pointed out. I'm sure the 3DS history is going to be more reflective of the declining sales, ignoring the fact sales went up when the year the Switch was released. I see sales going down to being around 40%-60% of the previous years. Something like 12 million this year (2024), 7 million next year (2025), 3 or 4 million the year after (2026) then a million or so (2027).

So by March 2026 the Switch will be on the border of the biggest ever seller. Everything after that will be what the final new 'most ever' figure will be