No, Tropical Freeze did poorly on Wii U because Wii U was not popular, not the other way around.

DK New titles

DKC-9.30m

DKC Returns-6.53m

DK64-5.27m

DKC2-5.15m

DK Land-3.91m

DKC3-3.51m

DK Land 2-2.35m

DK Land 3-1.03m

DK ports

DKC Returns 3D-2.94m

DKC (GB)-2.19m

DKC (GBA)-1.82m

DKC2 (GBA)-0.99m

DKC3 (GBA)-0.67m

Tropical Freeze

Wii U-2.02m

NSW-4.62m (end of 2022, will end over 5m)

Ironically, the Wii U version of TF sold like previous ports have and the NSW version is selling similar to new entries. Returns of Wii will likely fall in the 2-3 million range.

As for Zelda, Link’s Awakening was a remake but a remake of a game that was 26 years old at the time meaning to most gamers it was a new title.

Link’s Awakening (NSW)-6.63m (as of June 2023)

Legend of Zelda-6.53m

Phantom Hourglass-4.76m

Link to the Past (SNES)-4.61m

Adventure of Link-4.38m

A Link Between Worlds-4.28m

Oracle of Ages/Seasons-3.99m

Link’s Awakening (GB)-3.83m

Spirit Tracks-2.96m

Link to the Past (GBA)-2.82m

Link’s Awakening DX-2.22m

The Minish Cap-1.76m

It’s already the best selling 2D Zelda so people clearly are treating it like a new title and there is little reason to think Echoes of Wisdom is going to see a 2.5x increase over the best selling 2D title. It will probably sell in the 4-6 million range along with the other top selling 2D entries.

Shipped or sold? Shipped, that’s probable. Sold, that’s a stretch.

Technically possible, but not needed and not likely.

Zelda on September 26 and Super Mario Party Jamboree on October 17 are pre-holiday titles that fill a lot of that need. The Mario Party games on Switch are printing money. 

Mario & Luigi is closer to Christmas and Winter Holidays with a November 7 release. If Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity can be a holiday title, Mario & Luigi can. 

170 million is possible, but we'll see. 

Don't forget Dragon Quest III HD-2D Remake. Although, it's not published by Nintendo, it is clearly treated as a holidays title to sell consoles. Especially, in Japan this title will ship quite some units.

I don't even think 6 mill is happening for Echoes of Wisdom ... maybe 4 million. 

Link's Awakening came out much earlier in the Switch's product cycle and starred (well) Link.

Yeah I think it will follow the same trajectory that other 2nd releases on a platform have had.

NES-6.53m to 4.38m

N64-7.60m to 3.36m

DS-4.76m to 2.96m

Wii-7.50m to 3.67m

NSW-31.61m to 20.28m

I agree, ~4 million seems likely.

I'd say...

LM2 HD: 2-4m

Nintendo World Championship: 1-1.5m

LoZ Echoes of Wisdom: 3-5m

SMP Jamboree: 7-10m

M&L Brothership: 2-3m

DKCR HD: 2-3.5m

Pokemon Legends ZA: 9-11m

MP4: 2-3m

Maybe I'm too pessimistic and lowballing some of the games, but no way in hell the Zelda game sells 15m or DKCRHD sells 11m. Or M&L sells 9m.

idk about all the other games, but I do feel very confident in saying that…
(i) If Metroid Prime 4 is a launch title for Switch 2, then that’s at least 10mil LTD (bold prediction),
(ii) Zelda EoW will sell 8mil LTD (another very bold prediction).
…with how big the launch of TotK was, it’s clear that a massive Zelda base exists. I could very certainly see ~4mil at launch, followed up with ~3mil for the remainder of the quarter. (This is likely the big holiday title after all.) The remaining million will come overtime.

dupe. Ignore

Nintendo is projecting 154.8m shipped by March 31st, so yeah, Switch will have to be over 150m units actually sold by December 31st to hit that.

~153m shipped by Dec 31st would be pretty good, leaving ~1.8m for fiscal Q4 (Jan-Mar).  Although Switch only managed 1,96m for this last Q4, if Pokemon Legends arrives by next March and if the Switch has been price reduced a little by then, I can see the system doing at least 1.5m next Jan-Mar, putting it close to Nintendo's projection.