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Forums - Sales Discussion - January NPD 2022 Thread + Predictions

trunkswd said:
CourageTCD said:

The difference between them isn't that much tbh

Right now it looks all 3 were pretty close for the month. If more data comes out I'll adjust them some more. Here are our US numbers for January after adjustments. 

PS5: 350,277

XS: 326,664

NS: 302,850

If these numbers are close to correct, then Switch didn't do much worse than a year ago when leaks had it at ~385k. Still, it's surprising to see Switch in third place.

Then again, I looked at Nintendo's corporate website just now and one investor's question was specifically about the USA and rather weak shipments during the holiday quarter. Nintendo's answer was that they've been unable to meet demand and that the situation continued into 2022. So based on that, a modest January result is not really surprising.

Switch's streak of consecutive NPD wins ended last September already, so my disappointment in the January result isn't big. From the same investors briefing, Nintendo confirmed that they've secured enough production volume to meet their revised hardware forecast, plus they said that they won't let potentially increasing component prices dictate the volume of hardware they'll produce in the next fiscal year.



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RolStoppable said:
trunkswd said:

Right now it looks all 3 were pretty close for the month. If more data comes out I'll adjust them some more. Here are our US numbers for January after adjustments. 

PS5: 350,277

XS: 326,664

NS: 302,850

If these numbers are close to correct, then Switch didn't do much worse than a year ago when leaks had it at ~385k. Still, it's surprising to see Switch in third place.

Then again, I looked at Nintendo's corporate website just now and one investor's question was specifically about the USA and rather weak shipments during the holiday quarter. Nintendo's answer was that they've been unable to meet demand and that the situation continued into 2022. So based on that, a modest January result is not really surprising.

Switch's streak of consecutive NPD wins ended last September already, so my disappointment in the January result isn't big. From the same investors briefing, Nintendo confirmed that they've secured enough production volume to meet their revised hardware forecast, plus they said that they won't let potentially increasing component prices dictate the volume of hardware they'll produce in the next fiscal year.

These are as close as we can get right now without more information available. If more data comes out I'll adjust some more. Figuring out the average selling price per console is the hardest it has ever been with so many different SKUs. 

You are right about Nintendo specifically mentioning USA shortages. Shipping from the manufacture to the Americas does require either air freight or boats. in Europe, Nintendo could use trains to ship consoles. Which we know in the UK and Spain sales for the Switch are up year-on-year.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Wow even with supply issues both the Sony and MS consoles beat the Switch. When supply catches up Switch will fall really behind.



hotdogflavouredwater said:

Wow even with supply issues both the Sony and MS consoles beat the Switch. When supply catches up Switch will fall really behind.

The Switch had the biggest supply issues. This is not because of lacking demand.



That was unexpected. In my mind it was something like NS -> XBS -> PS5.

But overall, great sales for all of them, considering the shortages.



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who wins any month comes down to who can put out the most stock.



hotdogflavouredwater said:

Wow even with supply issues both the Sony and MS consoles beat the Switch. When supply catches up Switch will fall really behind.

2 posts, one of which is this one, no avatar, and you made your account today.  Yeah, this checks out.



Anecdotally i (in the US) have found Nintendo Switches and Nintendo Switch OLEDs in particular to be harder to find in the last few weeks then they were in December. Obviously that’s not hard data but I’m not surprised by these numbers. I think switch is having its own supply issues now.


This chip shortage is the worst



aTokenYeti said:

Anecdotally i (in the US) have found Nintendo Switches and Nintendo Switch OLEDs in particular to be harder to find in the last few weeks then they were in December. Obviously that’s not hard data but I’m not surprised by these numbers. I think switch is having its own supply issues now.


This chip shortage is the worst

I checked Amazon (US) right after the holidays and Switch OLED was available. The next day, it was gone (not available for a wait list) and OG Switch was available for shipping in a couple of weeks.  The OLED was not in stock every time I checked until a few days ago for about 20 minutes.

Right now, the OLED is available on Amazon, with the fastest delivery for March 2 - 3. I don't expect it to last long, though.  OG Switch is readily available, and of course, the Lite is never hard to find.

Nintendo reiterated that they plan to meet their 4m shipped for Q4 at least and, hopefully, will be able to meet the inevitable 22m+ demand for the year.



trunkswd said:
CourageTCD said:

The difference between them isn't that much tbh

Right now it looks all 3 were pretty close for the month. If more data comes out I'll adjust them some more. Here are our US numbers for January after adjustments. 

PS5: 350,277

XS: 326,664

NS: 302,850

what did you guys have it at before the adjustments?



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