30% down is wayyyy too much. It'll probably be like 10% down when the year is over. 15% at absolute worst if saturation is really starting to become a thing this year.
OLED stock looks low. Plus Switch had a big January last year and in general was still hitting 2020 and above numbers for the first several months of the year.
Need to remember that a few months into 2021 it looked like Switch was going to easily sail over 6.5 million that year. So comparing early year numbers to its final year total doesn't compute.
So it is definitely possible that Switch is down YTD 30% for the first few months, but then catches up the rest of the year. Remember there's Splatoon 3, and presumably BotW2 for the holidays, and possibly other big games in the Japanese market that aren't announced yet. Plus Pokemon Legends is about to hit as well. Plus there are stock shortages right now. There are a lot of reasons why Switch is significantly down right now compared to last year but won't be by the end of the year. I expect close to 5 million sales this year - probably 11% to 13% drop from last year.
We have honestly no clue what's going to happen, 30% or 10% or even up it is all guesswork =p
Poor PS4, yet to cross 100 units YTD. At least PS5 seems to be doing good on the hardware side.
Signature goes here!
Hardware pre Pokémon launch —> Launch
118k —> 243k: XY (3DS / Y3)
51k —> 83k: ORAS (3DS / Y4)
30k —> 114k : SUMO (3DS / Y6)
19k —> 41k: USUM (3DS / Y7)
53k —> 181k: LGPE (NSW / Y2)
89k —> 180k: SWSH (NSW / Y3)
87k —> 168k: BDSP (NSW / Y5)
77k —> ???k: PLA (NSW / Y6)
i went with 190k at first but im going with 210k
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Looks like another week of Japan = Switch. For next week, I'm sure Arceus will post big software numbers. I expect hardware to be up too, but I'd be surprised if hardware broke any records. There is supposed to be a big chip shortage going on still.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
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Ouch the OLED model really isn't stopping the bleeding.
| RolStoppable said: If 2022 manages ~1.25m through the first 13 weeks of the year, then that will be a more than decent result. Minimum target is 1m which means average weekly sales of ~55k for the next nine weeks; if 2022 doesn't manage that, the outlook will be grim. I don't expect Pokémon Legends Arceus to result in many, if any, wins for 2022 in the upcoming comparisons. But as mentioned above, if weekly sales stay above 60k for the next two months until Kirby releases, that will be okay.
|
Nintendo often holds back some units for the launch of their high profile games. Depending on stock in Japan, the low sales this last week could have been due to held back stock and not necessarily anticipation for Legends: Arceus.
If this is true, then I expect a good boost for the week of Legends: Arceus simply for the fact that there will be increased stock available, and not only because of the launch of the game. I could see sales going up to 180k during that week if the supply is there, which will make up some of the deficit.
| refutableport said: Ouch the OLED model really isn't stopping the bleeding. |
What bleeding? If anything it shows how strong NSW is doing…..
week 4 ———> YTD
2018: 40k —— 269k
2019: 52k —— 432k
2020: 68k —— 566k
2022: 77k —— 516k
bonus (3DS same time frame)
easy to miss/not see the full picture when you focus on 1 particular year. Keep in mind 2021 is the only year where H1 > H2 in sales ?
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