30% down is wayyyy too much. It'll probably be like 10% down when the year is over. 15% at absolute worst if saturation is really starting to become a thing this year.
OLED stock looks low. Plus Switch had a big January last year and in general was still hitting 2020 and above numbers for the first several months of the year.
Need to remember that a few months into 2021 it looked like Switch was going to easily sail over 6.5 million that year. So comparing early year numbers to its final year total doesn't compute.
So it is definitely possible that Switch is down YTD 30% for the first few months, but then catches up the rest of the year. Remember there's Splatoon 3, and presumably BotW2 for the holidays, and possibly other big games in the Japanese market that aren't announced yet. Plus Pokemon Legends is about to hit as well. Plus there are stock shortages right now. There are a lot of reasons why Switch is significantly down right now compared to last year but won't be by the end of the year. I expect close to 5 million sales this year - probably 11% to 13% drop from last year.
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