The fact that some people are still talking about a Switch cliff, in a Famitsu thread, is actually pretty hilarious at this point.  Folks, the Switch cliff is never coming. That is doubly true in Japan.  Expect gradual YoY hardware drops every year until they stop production.  What other system are actual gamers going to buy going forward?  There are several weeks where 30/30 games on the Famitsu charts are on the Switch.  Not only does Switch get the best selling first party games.  It also gets the best selling third party games. If a gamer wants to play anything in Japan, then they are going to need to buy a Switch. 

Seriously, what other system are actual gamers going to buy?  When Playstation does have charting software, it is usually PS4.  Let's see how Switch and PS4 hardware sold this week:

NSW 94,523
PS4  17

Nope, I don't think people will be buying PS4's in the coming years.  What about the PS5 though?  Well, software sales on PS5 are more pathetic than for any Sony or Nintendo system, ever.  When a Japanese gamer actually wants to play a game, it's going to be on Switch.  That is true this year, and it's going to be true every year until Switch 2 releases.  Here, let me really spell it out for you:

M-O-N-O-P-O-L-Y

There's only one real choice for a video game system in Japan.  That's why it's silly to think that Switch is going to fall off a cliff.  What else are they going to buy?

While I agree with your post, it's not entirely true.

Yes there is no cliff, just the downwards slope, I believe the switch will sell more in japan  2022 then the ps5 will sell lifetime in japan by the end of 2022, there are still a lot of games that are coming to playstation that usually do well

The atelier games, almost everything by Squeenix, the trials of cold steel and ys games retain a timed exclusivity, senran kagura and the nepu games, I bet my butt that dragon quest 12 will be on playstaion and sell better due to being timed exclusive and let's not forget about elden ring and future monster hunter games, resi evil, devil may cry and visual novels do quite well.

Like I kept telling the Sony fans who were hellbent on spreading the rumour that the switch was a failed console that will sell less then the wii u. Let's not count Sony out juuuuuust yet

There’s no confirmation that DQXII will be a timed exclusive yet. Plus, Falcom apparently is now making Switch a bigger focus so their next games are likely gonna be multiplat day and date in Japan. And speaking of visual novels, aren’t they doing better on Switch?

As we’ve seen here in the top 30, there are a plethora of titles of various genres doing well on Switch. I was surprised that Dying Light for Switch actually charted, albeit 5k units for FW is nothing to write home about. And even then, no PS title is able to crack 3k units for the week? Something is up since Tales of Arise, RE8, CoD, Spider-Man, Demon Souls, etc., have already released on PS4/5. None of them are able to crack 2-3k units for the week?

While I agree with your post, it's not entirely true.

Yes there is no cliff, just the downwards slope, I believe the switch will sell more in japan  2022 then the ps5 will sell lifetime in japan by the end of 2022, there are still a lot of games that are coming to playstation that usually do well

The atelier games, almost everything by Squeenix, the trials of cold steel and ys games retain a timed exclusivity, senran kagura and the nepu games, I bet my butt that dragon quest 12 will be on playstaion and sell better due to being timed exclusive and let's not forget about elden ring and future monster hunter games, resi evil, devil may cry and visual novels do quite well.

Like I kept telling the Sony fans who were hellbent on spreading the rumour that the switch was a failed console that will sell less then the wii u. Let's not count Sony out juuuuuust yet

Had it not been for the OLED model, the Switch could have been doing Wii fifth year numbers right now. Maybe next year they will release OLED Lite to stop the bleeding but the PS5 supply situation might improve by then and we could see a PS3-like resurgence that we saw once FFXIII released.

Excuse me? The Atelier games have been releasing day one on the Switch for several years now and after Ryza 2 almost didn't sell anything on PS5 they scrapped the PS5 version for Atelier Sophie 2. No timed exclusivity lol.

And why would Horii be so dumb to not release DQ XII on Switch day one? DQ XI is still charting on the Switch.

While I agree that Switch is starting to saturate in Japan, that should only result in mild declines year over year. The only thing that may cause a cliff for the Switch is the successor, if it's fully backwards compatible.

Don't forget what happened with the DS, where the year before the 3DS released it sold another 20M+ and was over 140M LTD. The general consensus had to be that it would outsell PS2, but after 3DS launched, DS sales practically stopped, selling less than 9M that year and around 4M from then on. Those last couple years the DS was even being outsold by the Wii in its late years. And that's with the 3DS being overpriced at launch and not selling as well overall as the DS did. (All numbers and comparisons here worldwide)