So lets calculate how much dent it will actually make to Playstation.

Breakdown of AB $8 billion revenue as of 2021

• Content for Video Game Consoles: 25%
• PC-Related Content: 28%
• Mobile and Ancillary (including non-platform-specific game-related revenues such as standalone sales of toys and accessories): 40%
• Other Sources: 7%

So consoles make about $2b. Of that probably 60% comes from playstation. So activision revenues about 1.3b from playstation per year and Sony make about $400m profit from it or 30% cut. 

So there is you go, lets say $400m loss for playstation in royalties per year. Thats huge amount of money because its pure profit. Obviously in future activision will loss money as well as not every playstation COD player will buy XBOX. Sony will have to give them alternatives to make up for that.

Sony probably was paying at least 100m each year for marketing and exclusive dlc. Also the people who were playing cod on Playstation will just buy a different game

But this is huge dent though. PlayStation made about $3b in profit last year, of that good chunk came from Activision just for hosting their games. Unless something else replaces COD on playstation platforms, this will be huge loss. Much much bigger then Bethesta. Without 3rd parties royalties playstation division will be in losses. 

Not sure how can Sony compete with MS. Need to buy Capcom, SE, Take two before MS get them. Otherwise playstation as we know it will not survive next generation. EA isn't that big of deal because their biggest games will always stay multi platform like Fifa and Madden.

You know this won't affect Sony until at least 2024 right?

COD has a devout and loyal yearly fanbase. They will not buy a different game.

They will all most likely buy a PC or Xbox for future COD's if they become exclusive.

The only question for Sony is do they keep their PS5 and see a reason to have a PlayStation at all :)

It's not as big a loss as you think. I'd say a small dent. Playstation were paying big dollars for marketing rights and such for cod. Me and my friends bought cod every year but if cod isn't coming to Playstation anymore we will just use that money to buy another game. Not everyone will but I think the majority would move on. And even if Microsoft buy another 2 or 3 huge studios which is unlikely, playstation will survive with just their 1st party games and the 3rd parties

Yup.

That casual crowd who flipped from the ps2, to the 360 back to the ps4 will just follow back to the series X.

It has cod, Fifa, gta, madden... Etc.

With more locked in accounts, maybe the transition won't be so harsh but 10-20 million swing is big. Turns a 60 million series x/100 million PS5 into an even 80 a piece.

You're here though. Not some buy one or 2 games a year kinda person. 

That's who will switch. 

And I don't think 20m buy a playstation just for cod and one other game. The last few cod sold around 10m each on ps4. So yeah I'd say half of that 10m are casual and would probably switch