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Forums - Sales Discussion - How Series S could be last place in the US, Europe, and Japan, but first-place globally

Zippy6 said:

How do people like digital games in those countries? The low price will obviously be appealing but I'm not sure what their infrastructure and isp services are like for a digital only console.

https://www.speedtest.net/global-index

At least when it comes to speed, pretty much half of the courtiers listed are above 30Mbps, which I'd call accaptable for all digital console and around 75% above recommended 9Mbps for game streaming. However, there's a question of accessibility per capita and potential data caps. 

We could extrapolate the broadband access from this data and combine it with the average speed: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.NET.BBND

For example:
Brazil - 36M fixed broadband subscribers, average speed of 78Mbps 
Argentina - 9M, 37Mbps
India- 22M, 46Mbps
Mexico - 21M, 35Mbps
Vietnam - 16M, 64Mbps

I'm going to massively oversimplify, but if (let's say) one in ten of those subscribers would be intersted in a gaming console, that's over 10M potential customers in those 5 countries. 

Last edited by Kristof81 - on 08 December 2021

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src said:

Try doing this without connecting to the Internet. It may be your Xbox sees that your internet connection is quicker than HDD speed.

Most physical discs should be playable with no internet connection unless the box specifically says internet connection is required.

Obviously day 1 patches require Internet. A game unplayable without a day 1 patch is extremely bad practice such as Cyberpunk.

The base game should be playable without Internet. Switch cartridges have lower storage size (32GB).

Nope. Some of the best selling consoles in India sold like 100k. You need to educate yourself on living cost.

The avg salary in India is $400 a month. The US equivalent would be a game console costing nearly $5000.

I have no idea what game boxes say about it, I stopped buying physical copies late in the 360 era.  What I know is that there are a growing number of games that won't fit on a single disc, and that developers would rather have you download the rest of the game rather than including multiple discs.

Switch cartridges can go higher, or multiple cartridges could be included in the box.  But both are more costly and, again, developers would rather just make you download the rest of the game.  Did you watch the video I linked to?  Some Switch cartridges are little more than a dongle for a streamed copy of the game.

I didn't say past sales in India were proof of this being a good strategy, I said even a small increase relative to India's population could move the needle a lot.  No need to be rude.  And surely inviting this discussion in a forum like this *is* me trying to educate myself, by putting my thoughts out there and inviting comment?  Sheesh.

And average salary can be very deceptive.  The average salary in the U.S. is really high, but that's exaggerated because they have, last I checked, 630 billionaires (and untold thousands of millionaires) pulling up the average.  It sounds like you're talking "mean", but I think "median" or "mode" would be a better way of expressing real world salaries in a country.  That said, I appreciate your point, and I agree.  I don't expect hundreds of millions of game consoles to be sold in India this generation.

Last edited by scrapking - on 09 December 2021

So it looks like I was right.


Nearly all PS and SW games play without Internet connection. It should say on the box if Internet is required, if not, the publisher is violating law in many countries. Also PS uses BDXL with 100GB capacity.

This seems to be an Xbox problem/DRM.

Last edited by trasharmdsister12 - on 24 December 2021

src said:

So it looks like I was right.


Nearly all PS and SW games play without Internet connection. It should say on the box if Internet is required, if not, the publisher is violating law in many countries. Also PS uses BDXL with 100GB capacity.

This seems to be an Xbox problem/DRM.

Interesting statistics, thanks for sharing.  Fundamentally, I think this will keep shifting over time, though.  Games will keep getting bigger, but discs and cartridges won't (or at least not as fast as games do).  As time goes by, I predict fewer Switch and PS games will work without an internet connection.

I agree with you that they should internet required if the internet is indeed required.  I imagine they probably do?  I wouldn't know, I haven't bought a physical game disc in about a decade.

PS5 uses BDXL, but I don't think PS4 (or even PS4 Pro) do.  They can't play UHDs, and it wouldn't make sense to have DBXL capability and not also UHD movie disc capability.  If they support one and not the other, that would be a design fail on Sony's part IMO.

Last edited by trasharmdsister12 - on 24 December 2021

scrapking said:
src said:

So it looks like I was right.



Nearly all PS and SW games play without Internet connection. It should say on the box if Internet is required, if not, the publisher is violating law in many countries. Also PS uses BDXL with 100GB capacity.

This seems to be an Xbox problem/DRM.

Interesting statistics, thanks for sharing.  Fundamentally, I think this will keep shifting over time, though.  Games will keep getting bigger, but discs and cartridges won't (or at least not as fast as games do).  As time goes by, I predict fewer Switch and PS games will work without an internet connection.

I agree with you that they should internet required if the internet is indeed required.  I imagine they probably do?  I wouldn't know, I haven't bought a physical game disc in about a decade.

PS5 uses BDXL, but I don't think PS4 (or even PS4 Pro) do.  They can't play UHDs, and it wouldn't make sense to have DBXL capability and not also UHD movie disc capability.  If they support one and not the other, that would be a design fail on Sony's part IMO.

In many countries its the law to notify that an internet connection is required for games. I've seen it on GT Sport for instance.

BDXL is 100GB, should be enough for PS5 gen. Sony and Panasonic are working on disc for 500GB. So physical discs will always have a place.

Last edited by trasharmdsister12 - on 24 December 2021

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src said:

In many countries its the law to notify that an internet connection is required for games. I've seen it on GT Sport for instance.

BDXL is 100GB, should be enough for PS5 gen. Sony and Panasonic are working on disc for 500GB. So physical discs will always have a place.

You could do BDXL for Xbox One right now, you'd just have to orphan the OG Xbox One (VCR model) in so doing.  But you can do BDXL on the One S and One X, as well as the Series X.  I think publishers are reluctant to orphan the One VCR, but you could be clear on the box that owners of the OG One would have to buy it digitally whereas One S and X owners have the option to go digital or physical.

But BDXL discs are likely more expensive to put in the box, let alone whatever these new 500 GB discs might cost, and I think publishers increasingly don't care how much data is on the disc.

As for physical discs, I think saying they will "always" have a place may overstate.  I think there will be an eventual end to mainstream distribution of physical copies.  Whether it takes 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, or even longer, I think there will be an eventual end to them being a common fixture for almost all game releases.  If physical does persist well beyond into the future, it may do so in an extremely niche fashion (such as it's done with music discs).  Perhaps it'll be less "Walmart", and more "Limited Run".

Last edited by scrapking - on 18 December 2021

I'm from mexico, series s like 6,500 mxn, compare to ps5 and series x: 14,000 mxn each. it's not wonder almos everyone has a series s that cost less than a switch or ps4, without counting gamepass in less than 1 dollar. now add the fact you can get it anywhere, specially in stores selling it for 120 mxn weekly(less than 6 usd weekly)



XDKrieg33 said:

I'm from mexico, series s like 6,500 mxn, compare to ps5 and series x: 14,000 mxn each. it's not wonder almos everyone has a series s that cost less than a switch or ps4, without counting gamepass in less than 1 dollar. now add the fact you can get it anywhere, specially in stores selling it for 120 mxn weekly(less than 6 usd weekly)

Thanks for the on-the-ground assessment of what's happening in Mexico.  If what you're seeing in Mexico is replicated in country after country around the world, even if the numbers are small in each country they will start to really add up.

One thing I hadn't considered was Microsoft getting the price of the Series S below the Switch.  It's approximately the same price as the standard Switch in most markets (therefore more expensive than the Switch Lite, but cheaper than the Switch OLED).  But if they can get that price down to approximately match the Switch Lite, that would be a game changer in more than a few markets, I expect.

Is it your impression that the Series S price is the bigger selling point, or that Game Pass is the bigger selling point, in these very price sensitive markets like Mexico?



src said:

Bad analysis.

Demographics are a thing. You can't expect India's population to be buying $400 game consoles when they don't even buy $400 phones. You have completely missed the economic demographics of each population. The gaming population right now in India is miniscule, and depends on the economic growth of the population in that country, which will take more than 5 years. Same with the other developing nations mentioned.

Furthermore, a digital only console is DEAD in these countries where internet infrastructure is not reliable, costly and in some cases not even built out.

As someone from a smaller town in India, I disagree with some of your points.

A $400 dollar phone or a console is a luxury for sure, but not outside the realm of a once a year splurge spending. Of course this does not apply to rural India, and not 1.4 billion Indians, but the Indian middle class for whom its a possibility is fairly large, probably in the tens of millions if not a hundred. 

Fiber Internet has exploded in the past year or so. I subscribe to a 100 Mbps connection that roughly costs $10 dollars a month. If I went for 30 Mbps, it would be $5.  This is from a provider who has pretty much nationwide presence, and has forced there competitors to match those prices. Its been a year and I have had one outage, which is significantly better , and cheaper, than the experience I had with US providers while was living there.



src said:

In many countries its the law to notify that an internet connection is required for games. I've seen it on GT Sport for instance.

BDXL is 100GB, should be enough for PS5 gen. Sony and Panasonic are working on disc for 500GB. So physical discs will always have a place.

Sony is also not against using multiple discs. I just rebought Tlou2 yesterday, comes on 2 discs. No Internet required.

My internet has been getting worse. The average for Canada is 59.6 mbps, but an average doesn't mean much when it crashes during prime time. My speed varies between 100+ mbps and 2.5 mbps down (last weekend). 18 mbps up, purely down stream congestion.

Cloud streaming was still possible before the pandemic, but the current infrastructure simply can't handle the increased demand for video streaming, there's nothing left to put game streaming on top.

Atm, 10:20 AM, 78 mbps down, 14 mbps up, 10 ms ping. Yet when sitting down to game in the evening, better play an off-line game :/