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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: This is the last decade a game will sell over 10 million physical copies

 

Which decade will be the last a game sells over 10 million physically?

2020's 12 30.77%
 
2030's 10 25.64%
 
2040's 3 7.69%
 
2050's 0 0%
 
Never, physical will live on forever 14 35.90%
 
Total:39
Wman1996 on 21 November 2021

Probably this decade, maybe the 2030s.

Even Nintendo encourages digital purchases, though of course they still have immense amounts of their software sold in physical copies.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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Ashadelo on 22 November 2021

Theres no reason to have physical next generation, even a lot of physical games now have huge downloads. Microsoft just launched on xbox it's cloud gaming, games like Halo 5 and MCC which have over 100GB download are no longer need to be downloaded to play as it runs off the the cloud beta service.



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konnichiwa on 22 November 2021
brute said:

I would also say that "gifting" a game is much different than gifting music or movies which will continue to drive physical sales.

When parents buy their kids games for their birthdays or holidays or whatever special event they tend to mostly buy physical, as it brings greater joy when a kid opens the package and sees the game case there.

And the whole switching discs to play a different game isnt as inconvenient with Switch as other consoles. Switch games barely have an install and switching the cards takes a few seconds at best.

True that's why they sell fortnite games in stores that just comes with a digital code.






Mandalore76 on 22 November 2021
Chicho said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I voted never.  Nintendo isn't going all digital.  There are too many customers in physical sales.  The "inevitable" all digital future has been talked about for so long now, that it's passe.  It's not coming.

People that say never usually end up wrong. 

Flight by machines heavier than air is unpractical and insignificant, if not utterly impossible.
— Simon Newcomb, 1902

There is just as much absolutism in statements like "thinking physical will still be a thing in 2060 is hilarious" and "the idea that physical media will even exist in 2060 is a crazy notion".  It's not much different from someone in 1960 being convinced that we'd all have flying cars or jet packs by now.

Newcomb's position is humorous to look back on in hindsight for sure.  However, flight didn't completely eradicate other methods of travel (automobile, locomotive, sail, etc), so it doesn't really apply here.  Meanwhile, print media is supposed to be dead, but even though E-readers have been around for a while, books still exist and achieve million sellers.  

I don't deny the rise of digital media, but I also don't think physical media will completely disappear either.  Projects like the Intellivision Amico are a worrisome prospect of the future.  I can still insert one of my grandfather's Intellivision cartridges into a Mattel Intellivision from 1979 and play it 42 years later.  But if the all digital Amico from Intellivision Entertainment goes bust, will there be a server running to download its games from even 5 years from now?  The Ouya, which has been rendered a $40-$50 doorstop on ebay tells me the answer to that question is no.