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Forums - Sales Discussion - Data analyst Ampere: Xbox Series X/S sales at 6.7 million by Sep 30th, S outselling X in key markets

trunkswd seems to be pleased that the switch us numbers for October are in line with NPD. So are the NPD numbers correct for VGC?



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

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If so, how do they explain the consistently higher usa xbs  numbers for VGC than for npd?

What is right for Nintendo is different for xbs.

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 20 November 2021

My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
Machina said:

1) It isn't only Xbox that's bigger; they're all bigger for October. Switch by 52k, PS5 by 28k, and XS by 99k - and our Switch figure ended up being much closer to NPD's in the end. 

Whenever Will's estimates end up being off then he adjusts them - he always does.

2) Exactly. 

You are ignoring that only the Xbox numbers are very much larger than the WELFARE estimates.

And this is a comparison with Welfare's numbers, not an actual estimate.

One more thing, if Nintendo is right about being in line with NPD, does that mean that NPD is the right number for VGC?

Comparisons can be made for past months.can you give us the data for VGC's previous usa months?

2) I am not sure.

Ampere estimates the Xbox number to be 6.7million by September. This is not in line with ZhugeEX and welfare's estimate that Xbox has sold over 8million. Which does VGC think is correct ?

On the other hand trunkswd claims that ps5 numbers are in line with Ampere's estimate of 12.8million.

1) Bit rich of you to accuse me of ignoring something - all you've done is cherry pick throughout to try and make us look bad. And each time we answer you, you go off on some other tangent.

Yes, we consider NPD more accurate than our own initial estimates and we always adjust if needed whenever NPD figures (or a range) leak. 

Go get the data yourself, it's publicly available on the site.

2) At the moment we're sceptical of the Ampere estimates. They could be right be we need more points of reference/corroboration before we'll change anything. Why?

Firstly, their figure for Switch is extraordinarily low (would you like us to lower our Switch estimate up to October by 1.8 million too?), even if taking into account stock build up for the OLED launch, and that calls into question all of their figures.

Secondly, according to Zhuge they're essentially using the same tracker data we eventually get and then projecting it worldwide to get overall totals. They don't have more data than we have, but their model for extrapolating it is producing some much lower global estimates. 

Thirdly, their figures for XS (and NS) are significantly lower than other analysts and reports have indicated, including the Zhuge and Welfare ones I linked you to earlier in the thread, as well as other news articles. We treat all of these with some scepticism, but at the moment they all point to our XS figure being more accurate than Ampere's.

Ampere's estimates could be better than ours, and if this proves to be the case then we will gladly adjust, as we always have done since Trunks took over producing our figures.

Last edited by Machina - on 20 November 2021

Machina said:

1) Bit rich of you to accuse me of ignoring something - all you've done is cherry pick throughout to try and make us look bad. And each time we answer you, you go off on some other tangent.

Yes, we consider NPD more accurate than our own initial estimates and we always adjust if needed whenever NPD figures (or a range) leak. 

Go get the data yourself, it's publicly available on the site.

2) At the moment we're sceptical of the Ampere estimates. They could be right be we need more points of reference/corroboration before we'll change anything. Why?

Firstly, their figure for Switch is extraordinarily low (would you like us to lower our Switch estimate up to October by 1.8 million too?), even if taking into account stock build up for the OLED launch, and that calls into question all of their figures.

Secondly, according to Zhuge they're essentially using the same tracker data we eventually get and then projecting it worldwide to get overall totals. They don't have more data than we have, but their model for extrapolating it is producing some much lower global estimates. 

Thirdly, their figures for XS (and NS) are significantly lower than other analysts and reports have indicated, including the Zhuge and Welfare ones I linked you to earlier in the thread, as well as other news articles. We treat all of these with some scepticism, but at the moment they all point to our XS figure being more accurate than Ampere's.

Ampere's estimates could be better than ours, and if this proves to be the case then we will gladly adjust, as we always have done since Trunks took over producing our figures.

1) I can't reply to all of them at once.

2) I'll reply here as well. But from the question in 1), I don't want Machina and trunkswd to run away from question 1). The criticism of cherry picking to make Vgc look bad is a word that came from you. You have to take responsibility for that.

It is interesting that VGC says that NPD is a more accurate number. Not the right number, but more accurate than VGC. In other words, it sounds like an excuse for VGC to have its own numbers. First, about the discrepancy between VGC and NPD. I am not cherry picking. I could do my own comparisons, but since the weeks are out of sync, I can't do an accurate comparison. If you have the past USA monthly figures, you can compare them to the npd estimates.

This is a comparison of NPD and vgc for September. Left: npd, right: vgc.

PS5: 404k - 425k : 421k (4.2%↑- 0.95%↓)

NS : 355k - 387k : 410k (15%↑- 5.9%↑)

XBS : 226k - 258k : 311k ( 37.6%↑- 20.5%↑)

Yes, only the Xbox numbers are very large, as was the case in October. If this is just a coincidence and I'm wrong, I'd like to compare with other months.

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 21 November 2021

My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

By the way, the VGC before July still seems to be unrevised from the NPD estimate.

Why is that? Probably because no one has pointed it out.

At least September has been revised by trunkswd. That's probably because I've been relentless in pursuing it.

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 21 November 2021

My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

Around the Network

That Ampere report reads like trash to me. The switch estimate alone seems laughable, my local stores only had like 2 or 3 switch in stock whenever I checked during the time period this estimate covers, and they expect people to believe the discrepancy between shipped and sold was that high? Not a chance. Their Switch estimate being that far off also calls into question the validity of the Xbox estimate, especially since VGC lines up with 2 other analysts on Xbox numbers.



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
Machina said:

1) Bit rich of you to accuse me of ignoring something - all you've done is cherry pick throughout to try and make us look bad. And each time we answer you, you go off on some other tangent.

Yes, we consider NPD more accurate than our own initial estimates and we always adjust if needed whenever NPD figures (or a range) leak. 

Go get the data yourself, it's publicly available on the site.

2) At the moment we're sceptical of the Ampere estimates. They could be right be we need more points of reference/corroboration before we'll change anything. Why?

Firstly, their figure for Switch is extraordinarily low (would you like us to lower our Switch estimate up to October by 1.8 million too?), even if taking into account stock build up for the OLED launch, and that calls into question all of their figures.

Secondly, according to Zhuge they're essentially using the same tracker data we eventually get and then projecting it worldwide to get overall totals. They don't have more data than we have, but their model for extrapolating it is producing some much lower global estimates. 

Thirdly, their figures for XS (and NS) are significantly lower than other analysts and reports have indicated, including the Zhuge and Welfare ones I linked you to earlier in the thread, as well as other news articles. We treat all of these with some scepticism, but at the moment they all point to our XS figure being more accurate than Ampere's.

Ampere's estimates could be better than ours, and if this proves to be the case then we will gladly adjust, as we always have done since Trunks took over producing our figures.

1) I can't reply to all of them at once.

2) I'll reply here as well. But from the question in 1), I don't want Machina and trunkswd to run away from question 1). The criticism of cherry picking to make Vgc look bad is a word that came from you. You have to take responsibility for that.

It is interesting that VGC says that NPD is a more accurate number. Not the right number, but more accurate than VGC. In other words, it sounds like an excuse for VGC to have its own numbers. First, about the discrepancy between VGC and NPD. I am not cherry picking. I could do my own comparisons, but since the weeks are out of sync, I can't do an accurate comparison. If you have the past USA monthly figures, you can compare them to the npd estimates.

This is a comparison of NPD and vgc for September. Left: npd, right: vgc.

PS5: 404k - 425k : 421k (4.2%↑- 0.95%↓)

NS : 355k - 387k : 410k (15%↑- 5.9%↑)

XBS : 226k - 258k : 311k ( 37.6%↑- 20.5%↑)

Yes, only the Xbox numbers are very large, as was the case in October. If this is just a coincidence and I'm wrong, I'd like to compare with other months.

I said to try and make us look bad. Again, cherry picking.

NPD's figures are estimates. More accurate than ours because they get a lot more raw data than me do, especially nowadays, which is why we adjust whenever figures/ranges are revealed or looked. But estimates nonetheless. Everyone knows this.

--

September (was 4 weeks for us, so I've added the first week of October to make the comparison work). USA. VGChartz. Post-adjustments:

PS5 - 421,285

NS - 386,657

XS - 257,866

NS and XS were lowered to bring them within the NPD ranges that were revealed. PS5 was unchanged as our initial estimate was already within the range.

If you're aware of ranges for months that weren't adjusted, as you claim in your follow up post, then link Trunks to the source; he will adjust the old figures if they genuinely don't line up.