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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS5 and Xbox Series X|S Sales on the Rise - Global Hardware Oct 24 to 30

Dulfite said:

You strongly advise me to review my assertions? What is this, some drama show like Dr. Phil? Lol chill, it's my opinion.

Metroid Dread is the first game in a long time because the previous games didn't sell well compared to other series(if they did, they would have made more 2d Metroid games despite whatever technological barrier they referenced as being the problem). Metroid 1 sold the best, at 2.73 mil. The rest of them sold 1 mil or more less, with multiple not even topping 1 million according to the database.

It's a LOT riskier for Nintendo to greenlight a full HD 2.5d game made by a much larger team on a niche series than it was for a tiny team to make an artful, less graphically intense Hollow Knight. I absolutely love Hollow Knight's art style, by the way, as I own the game, but it wasn't nearly as expensive to make as something like Dread, so the risk taken here is more impressive for Nintendo.

The price is also a big thing. If Nintendo sells just 1 million Dread copies at $60 each, that's $60 million in revenue. Hollow Knight's full price was/is $15 from what I've researched (further reflecting how cheap to make it was). If it sells 3 million copies that's $45 million in revenue, which is less than Dread will make selling a lot less copies. Plus, Hollow goes on sale a lot more than Dread will (being a first party Nintendo game) so the difference is probably even greater there. Again, Dread impresses me more here.

You are right on marketing, at least for now. Nintendo has talked and advertised Dread a lot, but that will quickly evaporate as they move on to their next big exclusives coming. The indy game scene has basically continued focusing on whatever the best games it has in each genre until something comes out that finally beats it. People still talk about Shovel Knight, Minecraft, and Hollow Knight all these years later (not just players and companies, but gaming websites, giving them continued advertising constantly) because nothing had come out to beat those games in their fields, despite thousands of attempts. Sure, companies will hype up whatever they think the next big thing is, but when it fails to beat the indie Giants they rapidly move on to the next 4 person team working from a basement. It makes Hollow Knight getting to the top impressive, but it doesn't make its leg sales or continued being at the top seem impressive to me, because in my opinion, the Indy scene continues to freely advertise and highlight it's historically best games, which causes people like me to buy Hollow Knight or Minecraft years after everyone because of all those free references they receive years later by gaming websites, only to discover I didn't even play them much after purchasing.

I'm perplexed you really find that. After all Metroid is still one of the Big3 hardware manufacturers and have a long story of hit games 3D and 2D alike. Anything that ever comes from Nintendo will have free hype because the company itself has fans, let alone fans of the IP. A game like Hollow Knight was made by a completely unknown team and had a chance to just get tossed into obscurity like almost any other indie. Quality play no weight here, as you first need people to play the game first before giving it any good world of mouth. You want an example? Among Us. The game was released in 2018 and only had its breakthrough last year, the game haven't suddenly become good overnight, it's just didn't have enough userbase to grant it enough visibility 

Any game with Nintendo label is not bonded to this destiny, not in 2021 at least. I would understand if you were talking about Silksong as Hollow Knight is no longer a unknow IP in the scene and already have a fandom (even though still likely to suffer with the lack of expensive and high end advertising), but the original game? 

I'm even more surprised you think Metroid Dread is more risky for Nintendo than Hollow Knight was for Team Cherry. If Dread bombed Nintendo would keep business as usual and would be at best a small nuisance in their profit sheet, if Hollow Knight bombed (and the odds of this happening with indies are not lean) you would have a company in the verge of bankruptcy made by 3 middle class workers who would by then be jobless 

What's next? You will say is more impressive a millionaire's son end his life with 1 billion than a blue collar's son ending his life with 100 million?



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Following Mat Piscatella's statement about the PS5 and Xbox selling the same as PS4 and Xbox One during their first year in NA, do you know how many units are being currently tracked for the NA for both systems now and what was the actual numbers back in 2014 ?



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
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IcaroRibeiro said:
Dulfite said:

You strongly advise me to review my assertions? What is this, some drama show like Dr. Phil? Lol chill, it's my opinion.

Metroid Dread is the first game in a long time because the previous games didn't sell well compared to other series(if they did, they would have made more 2d Metroid games despite whatever technological barrier they referenced as being the problem). Metroid 1 sold the best, at 2.73 mil. The rest of them sold 1 mil or more less, with multiple not even topping 1 million according to the database.

It's a LOT riskier for Nintendo to greenlight a full HD 2.5d game made by a much larger team on a niche series than it was for a tiny team to make an artful, less graphically intense Hollow Knight. I absolutely love Hollow Knight's art style, by the way, as I own the game, but it wasn't nearly as expensive to make as something like Dread, so the risk taken here is more impressive for Nintendo.

The price is also a big thing. If Nintendo sells just 1 million Dread copies at $60 each, that's $60 million in revenue. Hollow Knight's full price was/is $15 from what I've researched (further reflecting how cheap to make it was). If it sells 3 million copies that's $45 million in revenue, which is less than Dread will make selling a lot less copies. Plus, Hollow goes on sale a lot more than Dread will (being a first party Nintendo game) so the difference is probably even greater there. Again, Dread impresses me more here.

You are right on marketing, at least for now. Nintendo has talked and advertised Dread a lot, but that will quickly evaporate as they move on to their next big exclusives coming. The indy game scene has basically continued focusing on whatever the best games it has in each genre until something comes out that finally beats it. People still talk about Shovel Knight, Minecraft, and Hollow Knight all these years later (not just players and companies, but gaming websites, giving them continued advertising constantly) because nothing had come out to beat those games in their fields, despite thousands of attempts. Sure, companies will hype up whatever they think the next big thing is, but when it fails to beat the indie Giants they rapidly move on to the next 4 person team working from a basement. It makes Hollow Knight getting to the top impressive, but it doesn't make its leg sales or continued being at the top seem impressive to me, because in my opinion, the Indy scene continues to freely advertise and highlight it's historically best games, which causes people like me to buy Hollow Knight or Minecraft years after everyone because of all those free references they receive years later by gaming websites, only to discover I didn't even play them much after purchasing.

I'm perplexed you really find that. After all Metroid is still one of the Big3 hardware manufacturers and have a long story of hit games 3D and 2D alike. Anything that ever comes from Nintendo will have free hype because the company itself has fans, let alone fans of the IP. A game like Hollow Knight was made by a completely unknown team and had a chance to just get tossed into obscurity like almost any other indie. Quality play no weight here, as you first need people to play the game first before giving it any good world of mouth. You want an example? Among Us. The game was released in 2018 and only had its breakthrough last year, the game haven't suddenly become good overnight, it's just didn't have enough userbase to grant it enough visibility 

Any game with Nintendo label is not bonded to this destiny, not in 2021 at least. I would understand if you were talking about Silksong as Hollow Knight is no longer a unknow IP in the scene and already have a fandom (even though still likely to suffer with the lack of expensive and high end advertising), but the original game? 

I'm even more surprised you think Metroid Dread is more risky for Nintendo than Hollow Knight was for Team Cherry. If Dread bombed Nintendo would keep business as usual and would be at best a small nuisance in their profit sheet, if Hollow Knight bombed (and the odds of this happening with indies are not lean) you would have a company in the verge of bankruptcy made by 3 middle class workers who would by then be jobless 

What's next? You will say is more impressive a millionaire's son end his life with 1 billion than a blue collar's son ending his life with 100 million?

Metroid being a Nintendo game hasn't made it sell great for decades, so the series doesn't get a boost from that association or other games like Super, Fusion, or even the recent Samus Returns Remake would have sold much more than they did. Dread appears to be blowing them all away, which is shocking considering how poorly the series has sold. Truly impressive.

When I talk about risk, I don't mean for the whole company. I mean for that team that made the game. This team had to go up to the big bosses and say they wanted to make a brand new game in a series that has been dead (from new games) for over a decade and which had horrible sales for years before that. You don't think that team's life was on the line with that decision? If it bombed, people would have lost their jobs just like Team Cherry. For those individual workers there was just as much risk involved as the guys from Team Cherry, arguably more. Failing on something like a major series (like Platinum failed on Star Fox Zero) can really stain your record and hireability. Failing on something no one ever heard of? Good for you for trying! Keep at it!

And please don't assume I am not sympathetic towards the plight of the working class, as I belong to the working class.



SKMBlake said:

Following Mat Piscatella's statement about the PS5 and Xbox selling the same as PS4 and Xbox One during their first year in NA, do you know how many units are being currently tracked for the NA for both systems now and what was the actual numbers back in 2014 ?

Numbers according to VG charts after 51 weeks in the US:

PS4: 5.029 million units 

PS5: 4.93 million units

Xbox One: 3.94 million units

Xbox Series: 3.83 million units 

Didn’t find the numbers for NA as a whole.



IcaroRibeiro said:
Dulfite said:

You strongly advise me to review my assertions? What is this, some drama show like Dr. Phil? Lol chill, it's my opinion.

Metroid Dread is the first game in a long time because the previous games didn't sell well compared to other series(if they did, they would have made more 2d Metroid games despite whatever technological barrier they referenced as being the problem). Metroid 1 sold the best, at 2.73 mil. The rest of them sold 1 mil or more less, with multiple not even topping 1 million according to the database.

It's a LOT riskier for Nintendo to greenlight a full HD 2.5d game made by a much larger team on a niche series than it was for a tiny team to make an artful, less graphically intense Hollow Knight. I absolutely love Hollow Knight's art style, by the way, as I own the game, but it wasn't nearly as expensive to make as something like Dread, so the risk taken here is more impressive for Nintendo.

The price is also a big thing. If Nintendo sells just 1 million Dread copies at $60 each, that's $60 million in revenue. Hollow Knight's full price was/is $15 from what I've researched (further reflecting how cheap to make it was). If it sells 3 million copies that's $45 million in revenue, which is less than Dread will make selling a lot less copies. Plus, Hollow goes on sale a lot more than Dread will (being a first party Nintendo game) so the difference is probably even greater there. Again, Dread impresses me more here.

You are right on marketing, at least for now. Nintendo has talked and advertised Dread a lot, but that will quickly evaporate as they move on to their next big exclusives coming. The indy game scene has basically continued focusing on whatever the best games it has in each genre until something comes out that finally beats it. People still talk about Shovel Knight, Minecraft, and Hollow Knight all these years later (not just players and companies, but gaming websites, giving them continued advertising constantly) because nothing had come out to beat those games in their fields, despite thousands of attempts. Sure, companies will hype up whatever they think the next big thing is, but when it fails to beat the indie Giants they rapidly move on to the next 4 person team working from a basement. It makes Hollow Knight getting to the top impressive, but it doesn't make its leg sales or continued being at the top seem impressive to me, because in my opinion, the Indy scene continues to freely advertise and highlight it's historically best games, which causes people like me to buy Hollow Knight or Minecraft years after everyone because of all those free references they receive years later by gaming websites, only to discover I didn't even play them much after purchasing.

I'm perplexed you really find that. After all Metroid is still one of the Big3 hardware manufacturers and have a long story of hit games 3D and 2D alike. Anything that ever comes from Nintendo will have free hype because the company itself has fans, let alone fans of the IP. A game like Hollow Knight was made by a completely unknown team and had a chance to just get tossed into obscurity like almost any other indie. Quality play no weight here, as you first need people to play the game first before giving it any good world of mouth. You want an example? Among Us. The game was released in 2018 and only had its breakthrough last year, the game haven't suddenly become good overnight, it's just didn't have enough userbase to grant it enough visibility 

Any game with Nintendo label is not bonded to this destiny, not in 2021 at least. I would understand if you were talking about Silksong as Hollow Knight is no longer a unknow IP in the scene and already have a fandom (even though still likely to suffer with the lack of expensive and high end advertising), but the original game? 

I'm even more surprised you think Metroid Dread is more risky for Nintendo than Hollow Knight was for Team Cherry. If Dread bombed Nintendo would keep business as usual and would be at best a small nuisance in their profit sheet, if Hollow Knight bombed (and the odds of this happening with indies are not lean) you would have a company in the verge of bankruptcy made by 3 middle class workers who would by then be jobless 

What's next? You will say is more impressive a millionaire's son end his life with 1 billion than a blue collar's son ending his life with 100 million?

About what you said about word of mouth:

The effect of it can already be seen in the second week usually. In the famitsu charts a game with technical issues like SoS: PoOT or Cyberpunk 2077 can drop heavily in week 2 following bad wom. It doesn't need a longer period of time.

Metroid Dread had overwhelmingly good wom, so it managed to stay longer in some charts than expected and will sell especially well when on sale.



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Kakadu18 said:

About what you said about word of mouth:

The effect of it can already be seen in the second week usually. In the famitsu charts a game with technical issues like SoS: PoOT or Cyberpunk 2077 can drop heavily in week 2 following bad wom. It doesn't need a longer period of time.

Metroid Dread had overwhelmingly good wom, so it managed to stay longer in some charts than expected and will sell especially well when on sale.

I'm not here to deny Dread great reception and (likely) good legs, I'm sure it will sell well. I'm here to say quality and good word of mouth only works as far as there is enough "mouths" to recommend the said game. It took a while for Hollow Knight to appear in the outlets, if you go on Metacritic it's easy to see some reviews are from 2018. Even the half million sold by Hollow Knight in the first 6 months were outstanding achievement and far exceed the game's budget which was only 57k australian dollars, it was such a big deal that the game got its own space on the E3 direct, with proper advertising the game sold 250k on Switch in a matter of just 2 weeks. Just here we can really see good WOM being a thing: It's almost 2022 and Hollow Knight still at 18 on Nintendo eshop best sellers I guess they are waiting Silksong release to reveal sales numbers but I'm sure it's very likely to be north 4 million as 2.8 million were from early 2019



Can't we be impressed both by Dread breaking series records AND an indie game finding smash hit success? Why does it need to be a competition?



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.