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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS5 Japan Top 10 Famitsu

Kyuu said:
Agente42 said:

1. Momotaro, Monster Hunter Rise, and other games have grown on Switch or Switch/Ps4 

2. Digital ratio in Japan is minimal. Japan it´s a physical massive market, with a massive used gaming market. 

3. Use market for ps4 goes down. But the Plus thing is it´s a trend. Let´s see if this was bothering about this. 

4. Agreed. We seeing Japanese Ps5 in China, Taiwan and Brazil.

5. It´s the norm, the new-gen works old gen and the old gen only works old gen. 

1. Monster Hunter declined as have virtually all major 3rd party games including Dragon Quest and certainly Final Fantasy, and the vast majority of A/AA games. Nintendo's first party games on the other hand kept climbing, it's an utter monopoly. Rise barely or moderately outselling World in Japan isn't really a feat when you consider portability and the massive popularity/install base gap between PS4 and Switch. MHRise will not achieve the numbers of Portable 3rd, which came out on a system not nearly as popular as the Switch. The series definitely declined in Japan despite the insane growth in the rest of the world. But thankfully the decline isn't as severe as Final Fantasy or Resident Evil or Gran Turismo, etc. It does seem to have the potential to bounce back if released on Playstation and Switch simultaneously (Dragon Quest couldn't with XI).


2. Pretty sure the ratio significantly increased compared to PS4 at launch. PS5DE being digital only will accelerate the ratio growth even further, as will Series XS.

5. No it isn't the norm. PS3 and PS4 weren't backwards compatible. Anyone who bought the PS2/PS3 version of a certain game bought it to play it ONLY on the native console. This may not apply PS4/PS5 if my understanding of "Dumb Delivery" is correct. It looks like at least in some cases, PS4 version works on both (and most give you a free upgrade when a native PS5 version is available), whereas the PS5 version wouldn't work on PS4. In other words, PS4 versions are superior due to accessibility. In the case of Horizon 2 it's actually cheaper (PS4 version literally gives you more for less. It's ridiculous).

5. You are correct. PS5 physicals dont work on ps4. It just makes more sense to buy the PS4 physical version because it works on the PS5 too and 99% of the games so far are free upgrades. The only 2 games i know that cost $10 to upgrade are GoT and death stranding. Even with the $10 fee to upgrade, most people would still buy the PS4 version so they can play on both PS4 and PS5

Last edited by Pinkie_pie - on 03 October 2021

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Pinkie_pie said:
Kyuu said:

1. Monster Hunter declined as have virtually all major 3rd party games including Dragon Quest and certainly Final Fantasy, and the vast majority of A/AA games. Nintendo's first party games on the other hand kept climbing, it's an utter monopoly. Rise barely or moderately outselling World in Japan isn't really a feat when you consider portability and the massive popularity/install base gap between PS4 and Switch. MHRise will not achieve the numbers of Portable 3rd, which came out on a system not nearly as popular as the Switch. The series definitely declined in Japan despite the insane growth in the rest of the world. But thankfully the decline isn't as severe as Final Fantasy or Resident Evil or Gran Turismo, etc. It does seem to have the potential to bounce back if released on Playstation and Switch simultaneously (Dragon Quest couldn't with XI).


2. Pretty sure the ratio significantly increased compared to PS4 at launch. PS5DE being digital only will accelerate the ratio growth even further, as will Series XS.

5. No it isn't the norm. PS3 and PS4 weren't backwards compatible. Anyone who bought the PS2/PS3 version of a certain game bought it to play it ONLY on the native console. This may not apply PS4/PS5 if my understanding of "Dumb Delivery" is correct. It looks like at least in some cases, PS4 version works on both (and most give you a free upgrade when a native PS5 version is available), whereas the PS5 version wouldn't work on PS4. In other words, PS4 versions are superior due to accessibility. In the case of Horizon 2 it's actually cheaper (PS4 version literally gives you more for less. It's ridiculous).

5. You are correct. PS5 physicals dont work on ps4. It just makes more sense to buy the PS4 physical version because it works on the PS5 too and 99% of the games so far are free upgrades. The only 2 games i know that cost $10 to upgrade are GoT and death stranding. Even with the $10 fee to upgrade, most people would still buy the PS4 version so they can play on both PS4 and PS5

Yeah, but the software for ps4 not increase but decrease go on, (the last white paper demonstrates this), the multiplat ps4/ps5 demonstrates this too. 



Kyuu said:
Agente42 said:

1. Momotaro, Monster Hunter Rise, and other games have grown on Switch or Switch/Ps4 

2. Digital ratio in Japan is minimal. Japan it´s a physical massive market, with a massive used gaming market. 

3. Use market for ps4 goes down. But the Plus thing is it´s a trend. Let´s see if this was bothering about this. 

4. Agreed. We seeing Japanese Ps5 in China, Taiwan and Brazil.

5. It´s the norm, the new-gen works old gen and the old gen only works old gen. 

1. Monster Hunter declined as have virtually all major 3rd party games including Dragon Quest and certainly Final Fantasy, and the vast majority of A/AA games. Nintendo's first party games on the other hand kept climbing, it's an utter monopoly. Rise barely or moderately outselling World in Japan isn't really a feat when you consider portability and the massive popularity/install base gap between PS4 and Switch. MHRise will not achieve the numbers of Portable 3rd, which came out on a system not nearly as popular as the Switch. The series definitely declined in Japan despite the insane growth in the rest of the world. But thankfully the decline isn't as severe as Final Fantasy or Resident Evil or Gran Turismo, etc. It does seem to have the potential to bounce back if released on Playstation and Switch simultaneously (Dragon Quest couldn't with XI).


2. Pretty sure the ratio significantly increased compared to PS4 at launch. PS5DE being digital only will accelerate the ratio growth even further, as will Series XS.

5. No it isn't the norm. PS3 and PS4 weren't backwards compatible. Anyone who bought the PS2/PS3 version of a certain game bought it to play it ONLY on the native console. This may not apply PS4/PS5 if my understanding of "Dumb Delivery" is correct. It looks like at least in some cases, PS4 version works on both (and most give you a free upgrade when a native PS5 version is available), whereas the PS5 version wouldn't work on PS4. In other words, PS4 versions are superior due to accessibility. In the case of Horizon 2 it's actually cheaper (PS4 version literally gives you more for less. It's ridiculous).

so the majority of games go up, the total software sales go up, but you say I´m wrong? The problem is, in Japan, it´s not Playstation. The ecosystem of sony, in the software department, has decreased, but the Japanese market increase. The majority of the decrease came from thirds bet only in Sony consoles. Bandai Namco it´s the perfect example of this. Bet against the market leader. 

The ratio may be increased, but not enough; it´s two different things: digital minimal growth and digital majority or dominance. Japan has a huge second-hand market, some games slash the price in two weeks or less. 



Kyuu said:

1. Monster Hunter declined as have virtually all major 3rd party games including Dragon Quest and certainly Final Fantasy, and the vast majority of A/AA games. Nintendo's first party games on the other hand kept climbing, it's an utter monopoly. Rise barely or moderately outselling World in Japan isn't really a feat when you consider portability and the massive popularity/install base gap between PS4 and Switch. MHRise will not achieve the numbers of Portable 3rd, which came out on a system not nearly as popular as the Switch. The series definitely declined in Japan despite the insane growth in the rest of the world. But thankfully the decline isn't as severe as Final Fantasy or Resident Evil or Gran Turismo, etc. It does seem to have the potential to bounce back if released on Playstation and Switch simultaneously (Dragon Quest couldn't with XI).

I agree with your general point that Nintendo's software have increased their influence among the japanese audience while big franchises from third-parties have overall weakened their pull which is at the base of the current situation extremely lopsided in Nintendo's favour (even more so than what happened in the past).

However I think it's naive to take the peak point of a series to determine its current health without considering if that peak could be easily attainable in the future or if the special circustances around which happened made it unlikely to repeat the phenomenon with the same intensity with the sequels.

For example no one should fault a Super Mario Bros. or Pokemon sequel because it couldn't reach the peak of the original Super Mario Bros. or Pokemon Red/Green.

While Monster Hunter Rise won't match MHP3 it could still sell in total >4M units which is, historically, an extremely high threshold for a third-party game in Japan (something achieved only by 3 Monster Hunter, 2 Dragon Quest, 1 Final Fantasy and more recently Minecraft when combining the various versions *).

The situation with the Dragon Quest franchise warrant a special discussion due to how it was handled in the recent past.

DQXI was initially planned as a PS4 exclusive, only later a custom made 3DS SKU was put in development due to Square Enix fearing PS4 couldn't guarantee the sales expected from the franchise in Japan.

Two years later SE released the director cut of DQXI for Switch.

If we combine all the three SKUs, DQXI has sold at the same level expected from a mainline Dragon Quest game (usually DQ games sell around 3-4 million units in Japan).

Obviously never before SE had to resort to create three different SKUs to manage a new mainline Dragon Quest game but this was forced onto them by initially thinking they could get away by only supporting the PS4.

The bizarre thing about DQ is that, while in the last few years we witnessed the rise of a new dominant platform in Japan therefore a prime candidate to receive the support from a huge japanese centric franchise like DQ, the release of new DQ games (mainline, remakes, spin off) dropped to zero since mid/late 2019.

Dragon Quest Builder 2 on NSW/PS4 released in December 2018 (sold the most on NSW) and DQXIS launched in September 2019 (it's currently at 700K at retail) were the last "new" DQ games released on Switch (or any other console for that matter) until now.

This is a big oversight in Square Enix's planning for the franchise.

* Also Yo-kai Watch 2 if we'd aggregate the third version.



Looks like Xbox will take a hit this week as well with a retail store no longer selling the new hardware due to low sales and gamepass as well.



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Agente42 said:
Pinkie_pie said:

5. You are correct. PS5 physicals dont work on ps4. It just makes more sense to buy the PS4 physical version because it works on the PS5 too and 99% of the games so far are free upgrades. The only 2 games i know that cost $10 to upgrade are GoT and death stranding. Even with the $10 fee to upgrade, most people would still buy the PS4 version so they can play on both PS4 and PS5

Yeah, but the software for ps4 not increase but decrease go on, (the last white paper demonstrates this), the multiplat ps4/ps5 demonstrates this too. 

Of course its decreasing, the ps4 is at the end of its life. People are wanting to upgrade but cant. Some new software are still selling over 100k in jaoan is very impressive 



The Famitsu sell-through for all the versions of DQXI currently stand at around 3.90 million units in Japan, that's without counting the digital copies sold.

Total shipment for mainline Dragon Quest games in Japan:
Dragon Quest IX DS 4.40M
Dragon Quest VII PS1 4.14M
Dragon Quest VIII PS2 3.80M
Dragon Quest III NES 3.77M
Dragon Quest VI SNES 3.19M
Dragon Quest IV NES 3.04M
Dragon Quest V SNES 2.79M
Dragon Quest II NES 2.41M
Dragon Quest I NES 1.50M

Sales-wise DQXI fall in line with past DQ games however what's different compared to the past is how they had to achieve those sales (by having to develop multiple SKUs).

In the past DQ appeared on the platform that dominated the japanese market instead with DQXI initially the game was thought as a PS4 exclusive, with the custom 3DS version created later in production due to Square Enix fearing that PS4 couldn't sustain the kind of sales expected by a mainline Dragon Quest game.

https://nintendoeverything.com/dragon-quest-xi-was-originally-ps4-only-3ds-version-was-added-later-on/

EDIT:

While the double/triple dippers concern is valid, I hope I don't need to explain that a game sales won't scale proportionally with the addressable install base.

What matters is the number of people who own those consoles for which the game is available who deem the purchase of the game as worthy of the asking price.

Last edited by Endymion - on 03 October 2021

Kyuu said:
Endymion said:

The Famitsu sell-through for all the versions of DQXI currently stand at around 3.90 million units in Japan, that's without counting the digital copies sold.

Total shipment for mainline Dragon Quest games in Japan:
Dragon Quest IX DS 4.40M
Dragon Quest VII PS1 4.14M
Dragon Quest VIII PS2 3.80M
Dragon Quest III NES 3.77M
Dragon Quest VI SNES 3.19M
Dragon Quest IV NES 3.04M
Dragon Quest V SNES 2.79M
Dragon Quest II NES 2.41M
Dragon Quest I NES 1.50M

Sales-wise DQXI fall in line with past DQ games however what's different compared to the past is how they had to achieve those sales (by having to develop multiple SKUs).

In the past DQ appeared on the platform that dominated the japanese market instead with DQXI initially the game was thought as a PS4 exclusive, with the custom 3DS version created later in production due to Square Enix fearing that PS4 couldn't sustain the kind of sales expected by a mainline Dragon Quest game.

https://nintendoeverything.com/dragon-quest-xi-was-originally-ps4-only-3ds-version-was-added-later-on/

EDIT:

While the double/triple dippers concern is valid, I hope I don't need to explain that a game sales won't scale proportionally with the addressable install base.

What matters is the number of people who own those consoles for which the game is available who deem the purchase of the game as worthy of the asking price.

I don't know why the development story matters. If Dragon Quest maintained popularity, XI should have performed better than it did. I predicted around 6 million across the three version, because each one offered things the other lacked, encouraging double/triple-dipping. DQXI PS4/Switch and 3DS are essentially each other's remakes. Being accessible to a larger playerbase is the other factor to consider.

Don't worry you don't have to explain that lol. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone here who spoke against gauging success or popularity based on attach rates alone more than myself. But in the case of Rise vs World, the inevitable 300%-350% install base advantage of Switch over PS4 should be expected to translate to more than the increase we're seeing. I was expecting it to sell 4.5-5 million, which is a conservative figure compared to what many others thought here.

Going by attach rates, nothing beats World which launched to a ridiculous 33%~ attach rate at 6 million PS4's, and pretty much maintained it. I hoped that this was an indicator that the series may be growing in Japan (Peak popularity Monster Hunter sold an unimpressive 1 million on Wii), but Rise is under-performing all things considered. Rise launched to an (expected and fairly impressive) 10%~ attach rate, but it's not legging out particularly well with the install base in mind (slightly/moderately worse than I expected, but not exactly a shock).

The relationship between install base and software sales is certainly not proportional, but it's linear. The popularity of Switch just isn't being reflected on Monster Hunter Rise so far, and this indicates a slight decline in the IP's popularity in Japan.

It's actually kind of funny that Capcom refuses to release a Monster Hunter game on both Playstation and Switch. Would likely break Portable 3rd's record, but probably not when counting PS3's version.

@bold, A simultaneous release is just that difficult. Porting from PS4 or PS5 to Switch or vice versa requires basically making a new game. Capcom thought it was more worth it to do just that, and made Rise.



The PlayStation brand is in decline in Japan. No ways about it. It just lacks the right games for that audience.



Very odd to see 0.5 titles sold per console =p
Several reasons possible to explain it, but it is certainly very strange.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."