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Forums - Sales - Gamepass Numbers

 

How many subscribers does MS need for other companies to follow?

20 million 6 13.33%
 
30 million 4 8.89%
 
40 million 6 13.33%
 
50 million 13 28.89%
 
60 million 2 4.44%
 
70 million 1 2.22%
 
80 million 0 0%
 
90 million 1 2.22%
 
150 million + 12 26.67%
 
Total:45

The problem with the Netflix comparison is that Netflix does not make top rated blockbuster movies inhouse. While they do make top notch series, I feel like that's less relevant for gaming.

Clearly this is due to budget constraints imposed on Netflix by their subscription model which needs to cater for inhouse development, and purchasing rights from other content suppliers to make an overall worth while service.

If you superimpose this with Gamepass - you going to ultimately end up in a scenario where the quality of inhouse content will have to drop. That being said the output from MS first party studios has been so low of late, that they are still going to be in a better position with gamepass either way. However, once their content is on par with Sony and Nintendo I think they too will end up in a predicament - especially with escalating game development costs for AAA games.

Sony and Nintendo on the other hand can not and should not adopt the exact same model. I suspect they will both adopt a hybrid model - whereby they can still make huge profits from new releases in the launch period - while simultaneously offering a more comprehensive service than PS+ or PS Now etc.



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Shinobi-san said:

The problem with the Netflix comparison is that Netflix does not make top rated blockbuster movies inhouse. While they do make top notch series, I feel like that's less relevant for gaming.

Clearly this is due to budget constraints imposed on Netflix by their subscription model which needs to cater for inhouse development, and purchasing rights from other content suppliers to make an overall worth while service.

If you superimpose this with Gamepass - you going to ultimately end up in a scenario where the quality of inhouse content will have to drop. That being said the output from MS first party studios has been so low of late, that they are still going to be in a better position with gamepass either way. However, once their content is on par with Sony and Nintendo I think they too will end up in a predicament - especially with escalating game development costs for AAA games.

Sony and Nintendo on the other hand can not and should not adopt the exact same model. I suspect they will both adopt a hybrid model - whereby they can still make huge profits from new releases in the launch period - while simultaneously offering a more comprehensive service than PS+ or PS Now etc.

Nteflix also uses a lot of local content and producers. I can't remember the last time I watched something in English on Netflix lol.



shikamaru317 said:
src said:

I was showed you higher growth isn't happening so whats the trade?

This is meme worthy, sub service model is easy to see growth for movies/tvs/music/PSN+/Prime, pretty much any service, but Gamepass is special

Half your post relies on unofficial data.

GP took 2 years to go from 10M to 18M. PSN+ grew faster than this (12-27M in 2 years) . Netflix absolutely obliterates this. They added 36M users this year while being nearly 10 times bigger than Gamepass.

The numbers don't lie. Gamepass is not showing the growth successful sub services show, in revenue or users.

That is a bald faced lie. Gamepass did not take 2 years to go from 10m to 18m, it took 9 months. Subs were at 10m on the April financial results for the quarter ending March 31 2020, and 18m on the January financial results for the quarter ending December 31 2020. That is 1.8x growth in 9 months. 

As for the rest of my post being based on unofficial data, that is because unofficial is all we have for 2021 growth, MS decided to stop posting official numbers. However, it makes logical sense that the strong growth from those previous 9 months would continue in 2021, especially since MS started spending even more money to improve Gamepass' library. In March they put Square Enix's Outriders, a AAA game, onto Gamepass day one, where it was quite successful. Then in April they followed that up with day one Gamepass on Sony's MLB The Show 21. Day One Gamepass on a 3rd party AAA game doesn't come cheap, but MS is doing it for 3 games just in 2021, Outriders, MLB The Show, and Back 4 Blood, and they have day one gamepass on even more 3rd party games in 2022 and beyond, like STALKER 2, Plague Tale 2, and Atomic Heart. Microsoft is investing big money into boosting Gamepass subscription counts as fast as possible, because the bigger it grows now, the more money they make in the future. It's a proven sales tactic, and MS has the capital to eat lower short term profits in exchange for higher profits in the future.

Again, if we look at the unofficial numbers, MS going from 10m subs March 21 2020, to "around" 30m subs late September 2021 (according to Take Two CEO Strauss Zelnick), that is roughly a tripling of subs in a year and a half, 18 months. That is faster growth than PS+ at it's fastest growth period. But comparing growth of Gamepass to PS+ or GWG doesn't make sense anyway, it's an entirely different subscription service. The selling point of PS+ and GWG was the ability to play online games, at least initially (the free monthly games were only added as a benefit later on), Gamepass is a service that is all about Games, access to a library of 419 games currently. It's an apples to oranges comparison, just like comparing it to movie/tv or music streaming services is apples to oranges.

Thanks for the correction. 10-18m in 9 months is correct. While thats a lot better, it needs multiple years of such growth, which remains to be seen.

I'm not going to comment on unofficial data.

smroadkill15 said:
src said:

A bad analysis.

Netflix pioneered streaming content ten years before Gamepass. Streaming models are more common in 2020 and customers are quicker to adopt said services thanks to Netflix.

Disney+ has 100M+ subs in less than two years.

Also please look at revenue, subs each have different pricing options. Spotify has 300M+ subs but many are free tier. Revenue is what makes the business.

This is why I showed YoY growth throughout the years

Notice, subs start with big growth usually 50%+ and then the successful ones still maintain 20-30% growth despite making billions and having 100M+ users.

Xbox is hardly moving the needle and growth is sub 20%

This shows the difference even clearer. Notice the exponential increase in revenue from everything but Xbox.

Stop talking out your ass. The growth of Game Pass is greater than 20%. It took less than a year to go from 10M-18M and you bold that comment like you're making a point lol. The only one failing at math is you. 

Revenue wise it hasn't moved the needle at all.



I'm glad we both agree Game Pass is in its early stages of growth, and won't see the revenue MS desires for several more years. But don't try to blatantly lie about the growth not being at a healthy rate.



Revenue wise it hasn't moved the needle at all. Netflix, Spotify, Prime, Disney+ had exponential increases in revenue in early growth stages.

Till MS releases revenue from subs and regular sub updates, its only evident from the available data that Gamepass is nothing like Netflix.



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And it shouldn't be because its a different service. Jezus man stop comparing fruit with meat. Yes both are food but thats where the overlap enda



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More like its not as successful and the business model is not scaling nearly as well as.....well nearly every other medium known to man.



src said:

More like its not as successful and the business model is not scaling nearly as well as.....well nearly every other medium known to man.

How could you possibly know it's successful or not? You said nobody, besides MS, knows where the revenue is at, so you're just assuming, yet again. Just because you repeat the same talking points doesn't make it true. 

Literally every post you make about MS or Xbox, you try to slander them in some way. Why would anyone take you seriously? Especially after being called out for make shit up. 

Last edited by smroadkill15 - on 11 October 2021

src said:

Revenue wise it hasn't moved the needle at all. Netflix, Spotify, Prime, Disney+ had exponential increases in revenue in early growth stages.

Till MS releases revenue from subs and regular sub updates, its only evident from the available data that Gamepass is nothing like Netflix.

At least you’re finally admitting that you don’t have any relevant data to base this “analysis” on ?

What available data are you using? Unconfirmed sub numbers? Guesses on what each person is paying? Trying to guess how much of the Xbox revenue given in financial reports is attributable to GamePass? 

You even made those ugly graphs ?



kirby007 said:

And it shouldn't be because its a different service. Jezus man stop comparing fruit with meat. Yes both are food but thats where the overlap enda

I thought it was phil spencer that first compared it to netflix? 



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