The game just keeps selling more than anything. Now at 238M.

Is it hoing to reach 500M?

How long until it's popularity starts dwindling? Another ten years maybe, or more?

What do you guys think?

Everyone tends to rebuy it when new hardware platforms release, it's one of those games that will just get perpetual sales everytime new hardware drops.

June 2016 - 100 Million
February 2017 - 122 Million
January 2018 - 144 Million
October 2018 - 154 Million
May 2019 - 176 Million
May 2020 - 200 Million
July 2021 - 238 Million

Averaged 27m a year over the past 5 years. So reaching 500m would require selling at the same rate for the next decade. Really it depends on how well microsoft support it long-term and if they release a "minecraft 2" or not. It'll keep selling for now, but I would never make a prediction for how a game will be selling 5-10 years down the line.

I bought it in 2011 never 'had' to rebuy it :).

Anyway sales aren't what makes it impressive.

The game has still an + 100 million monthly active userbase possible more play Minecraft each month then people play on their switch/PS4/Xbox one together. 

The game has more than 400 million users in China

The game is one of its kind considering it never went on sale and in fact became more expensive

Slightly less than infinity.

7.9 billion

I voted for 300mm, but I really have no idea. Who knows whether there will be a sequel? Also, it is mostly played by kids, and kids are particularly fickle. So, sales could drop like a brick if Minecraft becomes uncool.

Fondly remembering the "concern" certain people had that MS would never make back the money.

That's actually not true. The document where they mentioned the new sales numbers also mentioned the average age of Minecraft players in North America and Europe, which is 27 years. Most Minecraft players are adults.

That said I also don't see a sequel within the next five or so years, because the game is still getting huge updates and they most likely don't see the need for a sequel. It wouldn't be easy for a hypothetical Minecraft 2 to differentiate itself from Minecraft.

Also it has 139M monthly players, to abandon such a huge active user base wouldn't be smart.

Oh right, only saw it yesterday on the Wiki page for best selling video games though. But thanks.

That also means 38M in 11 months. Looks like it's biggest year yet.