So games only count as success and pushing hardware if they sell 25-30 million copies? Seriously, are we at that point now where expectations of sales are this ridiculously high? 3 million sales is WONDERFUL and absolutely moves hardware. Yes, nothing beat ACNH, but I didn't say anything did last year.
In my opinion, OLED Switch is just filling a niche market on Switch. It will do no better than the New 3ds/New 3ds XL did compared to 3ds.
Just to add my two cents into this conversation.
Q1. The primary sales driver for last fiscal year was definitely Animal Crossing. Q1 for 2017, 2018, and 2019 were around 2M, yet Q1 2020 was over 150% boost to 5.68M. Q2, Q3, and Q4 did not see anywhere near those increases. So, yes those smaller titles are "system sellers", but nothing close to Animal Crossing. In which case, trying to judge Switch's 2021 FY performance from just this quarter is not going to yield an accurate result. Animal Crossing just came at the PERFECT time. The percentage drop is because Q1 2020 was freakishly large, not because Q1 2021 is disappointing.
Q2. Q2 for Switch in 2020 had a much lower increase than typical from Q1 for two reasons. A) Q1 was freakishly large (as listed above) and B) Q2 production wasn't available because it was an unpredictable spike. Q2 2021 could very well be on par with Q2 2020. Personally I think it might be slightly down due to withholding some production for OLED launch and just some customers waiting for the "better" Switch.
Q3. Q3 is the biggest determining factor here, and Nintendo is primed for success. Q3 2020 was surprisingly tame compared to what was expected. Now, you are suggesting their were big system sellers last year, but there really weren't for this quarter. The games that were released from Nintendo amount to: Pikmin 3 Deluxe (a port of a less popular franchise), Mario Kart Live Super Circuit (an expensive remote control video game), and Hyrule Warriors Age of Calamity (A Musou type game that probably sold as well as it did due to using the BotW look). Meanwhile, Q3 for Switch has Metroid Dread (a brand new entry in a less popular franchise), Mario Party Superstar (Popular franchise), Wario Ware Get it Together (Not a very popular franchise, but still a unique game), Pokemon Diamond and Pearl (Even the worst selling Pokemon remake is over 12M, this will do 10M+), and Advanced Wars 1+2 Remake (less popular franchise). Add that to the OLED model which will increase sales, even if only for the double dippers, well then you see how Q3 2021 is going to be bigger than Q3 2020 guaranteed.
Q4. The fact that Q4 2021 is launching with a Pokemon game right out the gate means it is probably going to be at least on part with Q4 2020. The only thing I could see is sales being slowed since Pokemon D&P just launched and people are "Pokemon'd out", but that didn't happen with Mario for 3D World, so I don't think it will happen with Arceus Legends. Especially since it's such a radical departure from traditional Pokemon games. Other than that, if Nintendo can somehow get BotW 2 to launch in March of 2022, just in time for Q4, we will probably see a HUGE spike. I don't know if that will happen, but it could. Regardless, this quarter is the biggest unknown, and it's still looking pretty positive.
Overall, given all this information, the Switch at worst will make Nintendo's sales projections (25.5M), and that's if Q2 is down by a significant amount and Q4 is down by a significant amount. Otherwise, Switch should be on par (plus/minus maybe 3%). This is all coming from a guy who thought Switch sales would drop after 2020, btw. But, based on everything we know, it's probably not going to happen this FY. So, yeah you could be right with your prediction, but I think your prediction is worst case scenario.