icykai on 11 August 2021
With an OLED version, Pokemon Gen 4 remake, Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, BOTW sequel, Switch (Base, Lite, OLED) price cuts and possibly a Switch Pro release, I don't see how it's possible for the switch to sell less than 135m LT. It will most likely end this year with a ~105m. so 35 mill to end of it's LT will not be a challenge really.
Worst case scenario (2021 start 79.87m):
- 2021: 24-26m (It's already at 9.18m shipment with 2 quarters left)
- 2022: 19-21m (~80% drop) Base and lite pricecut
- 2023: 9-11m (~50%) Switch sequel releases.
- 2024-LT: 4-5m (~40%)
- Total: 135-142m
This is incase all said games and price cuts don't help the switch gain sales.
Best case scenario:
- 2021: 25-27m
- 2022: 21-23m (~90%) Base and lite price cut
- 2023: 18-20m (~85%) OLED price cut, Switch Pro release(maybe)
- 2024: 10-12m (~50%) Switch sequel releases.
- 2025-LT: 2-4m (~25%)
- Total: 155-165m
I'll go with 145m atleast just to be safe.
