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Forums - Sales Discussion - June NPD 2021 thread

Nice to see Monster Hunter Rise in the top 10 YTD.
We already knew its doing great in Japan and globally but nice to see America getting in on the action as well.



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Farsala said:
Ryng said:

thread update.

We know Switch is at least 400k because it had a double digit YOY increase over last year (365k)

Switch was 365k last year? You should update the old threads if we have confirmation.

Now i remember, the reason i didn't post it was because it was a "secrect leak", but then everyone knew about it so whatever.

I still can't reveal PS4/XBO numbers though sadly.



Shadow1980 said:

To expand on what the XBS's performance means for the other systems, well, assuming $150M in revenue for it that would leave $251M for everything else. Assuming the PS4 & XBO are only 5% of the total revenue, that would leave $231M for the Switch and PS5. Assuming those systems had a SKU split 3:1 in favor of the hybrid and Blu-ray models, respectively, and the PS4 sold 250k, then the Switch would have sold around 410k. If the PS4 sold closer to 230k, the Switch may have sold closer to 440k. If the Switch sold about 500k, though, that would put the PS5 potentially under the 200k mark. Between the two of them, though, the PS5 & Switch sold somewhere between 650-700k, unless the SKU split was much closer than 3:1 in the cheaper models' favor. For example, if it was a 50/50 hybrid/Lite and digital/BD split, then if the PS5 sold 250k the Switch would have sold 474k. If the Switch sold only 425k, the PS5 would have sold 277k. Of course, if the PS4 & XBO had a larger combined revenue share, say, 10%, that would reduce the combined revenue share of the Switch & PS5. But in any case, the PS5 likely sold over 200k and the Switch over 400k. Hopefully we'll get better numbers at some point.

So, how do these numbers align with the VGChartz numbers?



Shadow1980 said:

Since nobody has posted it yet, the best-guess estimates for June were posted a few days ago over at Era (as per Xevross):

NSW: >490k
XBS: >289k
PS5: 243-253k

While we don't know the SKU splits, I could see something like this producing the $401M HW revenue figure:

NSW: $127.4M (490k units @ $260/unit)
XBS: $135M (300k units @ $450/unit)
PS5: $117.8M (248k units @ $475/unit)
PS4+XBO: $21M (70k units @ $300/unit)

Total: $401.2M

Of course, the XBS may have been even higher than that, depending on what the SKU split for the 360 was in June 2011. As mentioned, if the average price per unit was $280, then at 507k units the 360 would have generated $142M in revenue, which would put the XBS at at least 315k assuming an average of $450/unit (a 3:1 split between the X and S). . So, we could also have something more like this:

NSW: $127.4M (490k units @ $260/unit)
XBS: $144M (320k units @ $450/unit)
PS5: $110.25M (245k units @ $450/unit)
PS4+XBO: $19.5M (65k units @ $300/unit)

Total: $401.15M

Also, Welfare gave his own estimates based on the results:

NSW: 477k
XBS: 310k
PS5: 250k

Assuming a 3:1 split in favor of the more expensive SKU of each system, that would give us revenue totals (rounded to the nearest $100k) of:

NSW: $131.2M
XBS: $139.5M
PS5: $118.75M

Total: $389.45M

Of course, that leaves a paltry $11.55M for the PS4 & XBO, and assuming they retailed for $300/unit on average, that would put their combined sales at less than 40k. Of course, we could nearly double that figure for the PS4+XBO if we drop the ARP for the Switch and PS5 from $275 to $260 and from $475 to $460, respectively.

Unfortunately, we've never been privy to SKU splits for U.S. sales like we usually see from Japan sales, so there's definitely going to be some margins of error associated with any of the above estimates. Still, the XBS is almost certainly at least 300k. The PS5 range seems pretty narrowed down, so if the XBO did do over 300k, the Switch may not have broken 500k unless the PS4 & XBO actually did do exceptionally poorly and/or a majority of the Switch's sales came from the Lite, though it's still almost certainly in the very high 400s.

Hopefully we get more accurate numbers down the line.

In any case, since we don't have exact figures, I'll just update my charts with the best guesses we have since I haven't updated them in a long time. Hopefully if we get the actual numbers at some point it won't nudge the data points more than a couple of pixels. I'll try to post them tomorrow, time permitting.

You mean Switch < 490k not >490k right?



Shadow1980 said:
Ryng said:

You mean Switch < 490k not >490k right?

Xevross' use of greater & less than threw me off. He posted:

Switch < 490k
243k < PS5 < 253k
289k < XBS

Which now that I think of it, he put the Switch's name before and the XBS's name after. So, "Switch less than 490k" and "289k less than XBS"?

It's not about where the name of the console is but on what side of the arrow the number is. If the open side of the arrow is pointed at the number it means the number is greater than the unknown number. Switch < 490k means the Switch sold less than 490k and could also be turned around. 490k > Switch. The number 490k is bigger than what the Switch sold.

Is the pointed side of the arrow pointing towards the number it means that number is smaller than the unknown number. 289k < XBS might as well be XBS > 289k, means the XBS sold more than 289k.

Bold: so basically yes.