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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware June 20-26 - Switch Sells 376K, PS5 Sells 226K, XS Sells 136K

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Your bar for good sales is unrealistically high. Very few consoles in history have ever hit 20 million plus in a year, and only 11 systems in the history of gaming have ever sold over 80 million.

But even by those standards, Wii and DS pulled insane numbers side by side. Because as very different devices they didn't directly compete, just like Switch and PS/Xbox don't.

PSP, GBA , GAMEBOY did very good sales overall. I am just talking purely about reaching high year sales. And they did their best years. Okay forget that example if you want, it wasn't the best one. Here is another one.

Just imagine some pie. If the one console get's bigger slice the other consoles get's smaller. It can still be okay sized one, but it is way smaller than the bigger slice.

Wii and DS were the only example 2 consoles have sold best at the same time. And that was because one was handheld other one was home and they both hit their peak years back in 2007/2008. Switch had already hit it's peak years, and PS5 and XB are now rising. Everytime when some console comes out and start to rise the other that is/was on top goes down at some medium level. It can't happen for next year the switch to be 25M PS5 to be 20M and XBOX to be 15M. It's too much.

To use your pie example, I would say Xbox and PS are taking slices from the same pie while the Switch is a separate pie due to it being such a hugely different product, much like Wii and DS.

We are kinda going in circles at this point though, this is ground we've covered previously. At this stage, I think 15m for Switch next year is extremely unlikely. We will simply have to wait and see how 2022 plays out. 



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:

To use your pie example, I would say Xbox and PS are taking slices from the same pie while the Switch is a separate pie due to it being such a hugely different product, much like Wii and DS.

We are kinda going in circles at this point though, this is ground we've covered previously. At this stage, I think 15m for Switch next year is extremely unlikely. We will simply have to wait and see how 2022 plays out. 

I agree. Like concept and what it's doing is different than traditional console. However it is still a console. And I am talking about the big pie here.

The pie that contains all of the video game buyers/players/sales. That one. Not the handheld/home/hybrid ones. Because that big pie that contains all of them also has some limitations and records how big it can be. It is not infinite.

And yes, we will wait and see. I can give the margin of error and doubt up till max 16-17M for the year.

And also to make it clear. I am making this statement only in the case that PS5/XBXS got in full stock by next year, and switch doesn't receive price cut neither Pro release. If it does then it may reach 20M. If with that also there is still the problem with the stock of the new consoles, then it may reach even close to 25M. Yes, I think this - the number of choices, for big factor of the sales of every console. I have done my prediction based on my opinion that the stock should be in full by next year and that there is small chance of Nintendo doing price cut next year (since the system is selling very good this year) and releasing Pro model (since they are releasing new OLED model this year).

Last edited by yo33331 - on 14 July 2021

yo33331 said:

For the tie ratio, okay, then the switch players are just playing more on it outside. It is not needed to be always in home to buy new games for your console.

Also I don't need to be active for 15 years here to have good knowledge on different type of things or sales. And my track record on this site is more than just making PS4 predictions in the past. I've been reading many articles charts comparisons and topics since 2011 here, and also have sometimes commented on things related to XBOX as well. Also recently I began different comparison like yours for year on year, console vs console. And I will continue doing it and making it better and more interesting for the future, maybe adding new comparisons or consoles, different combinations.

But really I don't know why everyone has to have some track record that you like here for him to have the right to express his opinion or prediction/thoughts about some consoles, or it's sales projection or whatever it is. Everyone can make his own prediction or thoughts and no one is required to give his reasons. 

My statement for the % of home and handheld use of switch is totally different thing than my prediction, and it does not have to be connected. I am giving my prediction and that's it. If it happen I will be right and all of you wrong. No and or buts. If it doesn't happen I will come out and say that I've been wrong.

I am not requiring anyone to take my prediction heavily. Do as you like. Everyone has brain and it have to have the ability to think. This is just saying my opinion and giving my prediction like everyone else. Mine is different big deal. Others are different too, just are higher numbers than what I am giving.

The reason PS4 didn't reach what I was going to sell was because of Sony not emerging markets or anything like that. And even then I've told in the past also that if they don't do price cut and stop all the support then PS4 won't reach 140M, even 130M, I was giving 120M as the bare minimum, and it looks like I've been only 2-3M off. The things happened in the way they happened because Sony just didn't care and didn't do anything about, not even giving full stock for the system.

Also almost no one would've give PS4 lifetime sales projection of only 118M like it's what will finish like. So everyone have been wrong about the PS4. Because even the worst predictions here were for around 120-125M. So from your logic no one here have to receive the benefit of the doubt and everyone here things wrong because no one could've predicted the fast death and the big drops of PS4. No one. Not even the haters or the worse prediction were giving PS4 8M in 2020 and 2M for this year. So you can see by that that my prediction was normal and okay based on the situation at the moment. There were many more peoples like me back then that were prediction 130-140M and even decent number of people also giving the possibility of PS4 passing 140M. So here you are not only telling how wrong have I been but also everyone who made predictions about the PS4 as well and making it like because of wrong prediction that no one could've predicted right, those people are not valuable or relevant to have the right of making new predictions and be taken serious or what ?

So my reasons and predictions were fully true and valid if Sony were to give the PS4 full stock at all times like it have to be along with 100$ like it was done for the consoles before last 2 generations. However they didn't.

So no, I have not been wrong before, I clearly said that if they don't do the normal things that every manufacturer should and most of them have done in the past PS4 wouldn't go much after 120M. I was just doubting they will abandon the system like they really did.

For smartphones I am not saying that it is connected directly, but I am just giving an example, because of tech like smartphones and not only smartphones, people in general have learned in the last 10 years to change and to upgrade much faster than they've done before.

I am the one who will lean back and wait for 2022, and to see what most of switch defenders will tell then, and what reason will they make up for the dropping under 20M for the year. The only thing that can stop that from happening is price cut.

Direct response to the bolded part: Anyone who claims to have extensive knowledge and demands that others accept their words as the one correct analysis, such as you, naturally has to have the track record to back it up.

Regarding your final paragraph, if a price cut or a new model is all it takes to prevent Switch sales falling off a cliff in 2022, then you should realize that your 15m prediction is doomed to fail from the get-go. A price cut is the most basic strategical option to keep sales high and Switch has yet to have one after over four years, so Nintendo can afford to do that with ease. That's why Nintendo fans can be confident that there won't be a sharp decrease in yearly Switch sales anytime soon.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

This is the most entertaining weekly sales thread in a while. It brings me back to the quickrick days when threads like this were common.



RolStoppable said:

Direct response to the bolded part: Anyone who claims to have extensive knowledge and demands that others accept their words as the one correct analysis, such as you, naturally has to have the track record to back it up.

Regarding your final paragraph, if a price cut or a new model is all it takes to prevent Switch sales falling off a cliff in 2022, then you should realize that your 15m prediction is doomed to fail from the get-go. A price cut is the most basic strategical option to keep sales high and Switch has yet to have one after over four years, so Nintendo can afford to do that with ease. That's why Nintendo fans can be confident that there won't be a sharp decrease in yearly Switch sales anytime soon.

I don't demand other's to accept, everyone can make or think how they like. I am just saying my prediction, and some attacked me because they don't think so. Okay their problem. I am not changing my prediction.

Nintendo have had very good selling consoles in the past where they didn't change the price in the right moment to continue the good pace but waited until their console started to drop, which is also some help however not as good as if it's before reaching the cliff. Just like Wii and DS.

Therefore they can wait till 2023 to make a price cut. And I think that if they have any thoughts of doing price cut at all it will be after 2022. So you are betting 100% they will do price cut next year, I doubt it. That's why my projection is 15M.

A price cut may really be the most strategical option to keep sales high yes, you are right, but in the recent years the price cuts are very rare and far between and often aren't used in the most needed moment but after it. Not only by nintendo but also with other manufacturers too.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 15 July 2021

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yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

To use your pie example, I would say Xbox and PS are taking slices from the same pie while the Switch is a separate pie due to it being such a hugely different product, much like Wii and DS.

We are kinda going in circles at this point though, this is ground we've covered previously. At this stage, I think 15m for Switch next year is extremely unlikely. We will simply have to wait and see how 2022 plays out. 

I agree. Like concept and what it's doing is different than traditional console. However it is still a console. And I am talking about the big pie here.

The pie that contains all of the video game buyers/players/sales. That one. Not the handheld/home/hybrid ones. Because that big pie that contains all of them also has some limitations and records how big it can be. It is not infinite.

And yes, we will wait and see. I can give the margin of error and doubt up till max 16-17M for the year.

And also to make it clear. I am making this statement only in the case that PS5/XBXS got in full stock by next year, and switch doesn't receive price cut neither Pro release. If it does then it may reach 20M. If with that also there is still the problem with the stock of the new consoles, then it may reach even close to 25M. Yes, I think this - the number of choices, for big factor of the sales of every console. I have done my prediction based on my opinion that the stock should be in full by next year and that there is small chance of Nintendo doing price cut next year (since the system is selling very good this year) and releasing Pro model (since they are releasing new OLED model this year).

Oh now your argument is that the competition will impact sales. It's still wrong.

Remember: the PS4 had its best year in 2017, the launch year of the Switch, which was a huge success from day one. And sales the following years were still very strong, despite the huge Switch success.



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
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SKMBlake said:

Oh now your argument is that the competition will impact sales. It's still wrong.

Remember: the PS4 had its best year in 2017, the launch year of the Switch, which was a huge success from day one. And sales the following years were still very strong, despite the huge Switch success.

No. My argument has been this all the time. However not only this, many other reasons too. I already explained in my previous posts. I am not repeating my self.

We will see who and what is wrong next year.

The demise of one console and the competition factor doesn't begin to work instantly. That's why Switch hasn't dropped late last year, and that's why switch is still selling very well. However next year is when PS5 and XBSX will be in full stock and are starting it's way up towards their peak years (which I assume will be 2023 onward)

Every console needs some time. Switch needed time till 2019 and unleashed in 2020 along with other factors that had helped it too.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 15 July 2021

Norion said:

This is the most entertaining weekly sales thread in a while. It brings me back to the quickrick days when threads like this were common.

Oh my.  How long has my son been doing this?



QuickRicksDad said:
Norion said:

This is the most entertaining weekly sales thread in a while. It brings me back to the quickrick days when threads like this were common.

Oh my.  How long has my son been doing this?

I literally just noticed your username and that your account is brand new lol.



So all in all even Pachter agrees with me and is saying that more of the users are playing in handheld mode than docked. That's why Nintendo releases new model that is only improving the picture when you are in handheld mode, and they are doing nothing for the docked mode. Watch the video at 2:40. Also other thing that is the same as what I said is the 25M projection of sales for this year.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 15 July 2021