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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware June 20-26 - Switch Sells 376K, PS5 Sells 226K, XS Sells 136K

curl-6 said:

Again though, the reasons for those mistakes do not exist with Switch, nor is there any sign at all Nintendo are heading in a similar direction.

Phones aren't a good point of comparison for Switch either, again totally different product. Wii's decine isn't analogous either as it followed a totally different trajectory.

If Switch's tech or competition from PS/Xbox was a problem it never would've sold in the first place, launching as it did midgen against more powerful dedicated consoles.

That was one of the reasons (along with the pandemic and some big games) why switch jumped from 13 and 16M in 2017 and 2018 to almost 30M now, because of those consoles being more relevant and looked for back in 2017 and 2018, and almost no interest to them in 2020 and 2021 (and limited stock of new ones).

The home consoles are not so much direct competition as a consoles, as much as they are like a different choice for the mass consumer who doesn't understand very well all the hardware and software differences.

If PS5 and XBSX were in full stock since start of this year, I can guarantee you switch would've been at around 7-8M now, not 11M, and would do 20M for the year at best, not around 25M (or whatever it will)

Also I am not saying they are a problem, but they shrink each other's share on the market little or more.

Therefore If all 3 are in very good place you won't see them making insane numbers.

When Switch is making them it's alone. When PS4 made them was alone. When PS4 began to drop, the Switch started rising. When DS and Wii made them 360/PS3 were doing 10M at best for those years. They began doing close to 15M per year when Wii and DS began to drop.

When PS2 made the high numbers no one made them. When the PS2 began to drop the DS and Wii started to rise.

Every time something is selling really well, other are selling bad or mediocre at best. It's like puzzle.

Now with the next year the PS5 and XBSX are coming full stock and are rising, the switch is going down, for this and for all the other reasons I already said.

And this is just something normal and ordinary I am not bashing Switch or something.

It's just the way things works and are. With every console. In every generation.

Also about the mistakes.. one of the possible mistakes is already done .. Nintendo could and had to release Pro model this year. With this I can agree that the next year sales would've been at least 20M or even had a chance of reaching 25M. However they didn't do it, and that is one thing that will cut the switch's life at least by 1 year (maybe 2) of what will be now and what could've been (and overall end the hopes for DS/PS2 numbers)

Last edited by yo33331 - on 14 July 2021

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yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Again though, the reasons for those mistakes do not exist with Switch, nor is there any sign at all Nintendo are heading in a similar direction.

Phones aren't a good point of comparison for Switch either, again totally different product. Wii's decine isn't analogous either as it followed a totally different trajectory.

If Switch's tech or competition from PS/Xbox was a problem it never would've sold in the first place, launching as it did midgen against more powerful dedicated consoles.

That was one of the reasons (along with the pandemic and some big games) why switch jumped from 13 and 16M in 2017 and 2018 to almost 30M now, because of those consoles being more relevant and looked for back in 2017 and 2018, and almost no interest to them in 2020 and 2021 (and limited stock of new ones).

The home consoles are not so much direct competition as a consoles, as much as they are like a different choice for the mass consumer who doesn't understand very well all the hardware and software differences.

If PS5 and XBSX were in full stock since start of this year, I can guarantee you switch would've been at around 7-8M now, not 11M, and would do 20M for the year at best, not around 25M (or whatever it will)

Also I am not saying they are a problem, but they shrink each other's share on the market little or more.

Therefore If all 3 are in very good place you won't see them making insane numbers.

When Switch is making them it's alone. When PS4 made them was alone. When PS4 began to drop, the Switch started rising. When DS and Wii made them 360/PS3 were doing 10M at best for those years. They began doing close to 15M per year when Wii and DS began to drop.

When PS2 made the high numbers no one made them. When the PS2 began to drop the DS and Wii started to rise.

Every time something is selling really well, other are selling bad or mediocre at best. It's like puzzle.

Now with the next year the PS5 and XBSX are coming full stock and are rising, the switch is going down, for this and for all the other reasons I already said.

And this is just something normal and ordinary I am not bashing Switch or something.

It's just the way things works and are. With every console. In every generation.

Also about the mistakes.. one of the possible mistakes is already done .. Nintendo could and had to release Pro model this year. With this I can agree that the next year sales would've been at least 20M or even had a chance of reaching 25M. However they didn't do it, and that is one thing that will cut the switch's life at least by 1 year (maybe 2) of what will be now and what could've been (and overall end the hopes for DS/PS2 numbers)

Switch and PS4 both sold well in 2017-2018, DS, Wii, 360, PS3, and PSP all sold well alongside each other in different combinations throughout the 7th gen, GBA sold well alongside PS2, Gameboy sold well alongside NES, SNES, and PS1. As a vastly different product, Switch doesn't directly compete with XS/PS5 so I do not see the rise of these systems as having a significant impact on Switch sales, just as sales of a motorbike wouldn't be affected by the release of a new family car.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

yo33331 said:

you are from the small number of people here I can say I like and respect

You never said that to me



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Your prediction is premature; 2022 is too early for Switch's death when its still selling like hotcakes and has no forthcoming reason for the stall you forecast. 2023 would be a better bet.

edited last post.

Many consoles in the past have done the same, and next year they fall of a cliff.

We will see 2022

Look son.  Dad is getting real tired of this.  Rick, it's time you stopped this cliff nonsense. You have posters of Switches photoshopped falling off cliffs all over your bedroom walls. Yesterday we saw you wearing a T-shirt that said, "Cliff 2022".  And you got a "Cliff for President" pin in the mail last week. 

I was reading your social media profile pages and you listed "moving goalposts" as your favorite sport.

Your mother and I think it's best that we cancel your Playstation account.



curl-6 said:

Switch and PS4 both sold well in 2017-2018, DS, Wii, 360, PS3, and PSP all sold well alongside each other in different combinations throughout the 7th gen, GBA sold well alongside PS2, Gameboy sold well alongside NES, SNES, and PS1. As a vastly different product, Switch doesn't directly compete with XS/PS5 so I do not see the rise of these systems as having a significant impact on Switch sales, just as sales of a motorbike wouldn't be affected by the release of a new family car.

Yes, well.. not insane numbers coming from every console, only from one at a time.

Switch making 15M next year is very good number, just not insane.

PS4 and switch in 2017-2018, PS4 was making the best out of it's years, and switch was doing just mediocre numbers compared to now.

DS WII were the consoles that were making the insane numbers, PS3 360 and PSP at that time were making just Okay numbers, not insane, and 360 and PS3 not their strongest. They did their strongest numbers when DS and Wii began to drop. PSP was making mediocre numbers all life.

GBA ,NES, SNES, Gameboy also weren't doing insane numbers for the given year. They did very well overall but their strongest period wasn't the same with other consoles strongest period at the time.

This is what I am trying to see. Not that the systems sell bad with other one selling great, just not showing their full potential at the same time.

There is no point in time where the one system was doing insane at it's peak, and the other ones too.

Wii and DS only, and that's because one is purely handheld other one is purely home console. And even the Wii was selling not more like traditional home console for home hardcore gaming but more of a casual system to play mom and dads and grandpa with children.

Your example with the cars and motorbikes is not relevant here because there are hundreds of models and manufacturers of cars and motorbikes, and only 3 manufacturers of consoles releasing 1 console per 6-7 years.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 14 July 2021

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yo33331 said:
SKMBlake said:

The whole topic isn't about Switch beating PS2 and DS, the whole topic is about fighting your statements:

- Switch is being used 90% of the time as a handheld

- Switch sales are no different than PS4 sales and thus will have a huge drop after 2022

The Switch can still sell below 140 million and those statements will still remain wrong. That's the whole point of everybody here.

What ? Don't put words in my mouth please. First of all the topic is my prediction that the switch will make not more than 140M and will begin to drop starting next year and my prediction is also that it will do something around 15M for next year. Anything other than this is just conversation or replies to other people's comments.

The topic is not about what % is being used as a handheld. And also I have never said that switch is no different than PS4 sales.

I just gave an example with PS4 how it dropped in it's last 2 years and that switch will have similar drops. Not just because of PS4, the same were also happening to DS and to Wii. But those were just examples. Also the drop will begin with 2022, it won't be after that.

If switch sells below 140M I will be right and all of you wrong. Cuz when I made my prediction of 140M and that it will start to go down from next year then all of you attacked me. It has nothing to do with the percentage of handheld. Don't shift the goalpost. If that was the point of everyone here then they wouldn't say anything to my original post which was that switch will start going down from 2022. Don't shift the topic in a way you wanted or understand to be. That is your problem.

The drop you are predicting Switch to experience next year is larger than any year on year drop the Wii experienced. 



Mandalore76 said:

The drop you are predicting Switch to experience next year is larger than any year on year drop the Wii experienced. 

Yes however drops in sales on consoles become bigger in the last 10 years than they were in 2010 or 2011.

So the drop that Wii had back then or DS in 2011 now will result in something around 15M units sold for the switch next year.

Just like PS4 drop is bigger than PS3. Or the XB1 drop is bigger than 360. Or just like 360 and PS3 dropes were bigger than previous consoles like PS2 or even PS1. Deaths on consoles are more brutal and fast now then they were before 10 or 15 years ago. With the times more and more people learn to jump from one tech to another. Those are the times we are living in.

As I said the thing that can prevent this from happening is 100$ price cut next year for switch or releasing Pro model. This will help steeping the decline.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 14 July 2021

yo33331 said:
Mandalore76 said:

The drop you are predicting Switch to experience next year is larger than any year on year drop the Wii experienced. 

Yes however drops in sales on consoles become bigger in the last 10 years than they were in 2010 or 2011.

So the drop that Wii had back then or DS in 2011 now will result in something around 15M units sold for the switch next year.

Just like PS4 drop is bigger than PS3. Or the XB1 drop is bigger than 360. Or just like 360 and PS3 dropes were bigger than previous consoles like PS2 or even PS1. Deaths on consoles are more brutal and fast now then they were before 10 or 15 years ago. With the times more and more people learn to jump from one tech to another. Those are the times we are living in.

As I said the thing that can prevent this from happening is 100$ price cut next year for switch or releasing Pro model. This will help steeping the decline.

PS4 decline was precipitated by their announcement of PS5 release.  It was Sony's decision to not attempt to produce large volume of PS4 consoles throughout 2020 while they were building up stock of PS5's so that they could have the biggest launch ever.  Unless Nintendo makes an early 2022 announcement of a Switch 2 (or whatever Nintendo names their next console) and similarly slows Switch manufacturing to a trickle, then PS4's sales trajectory have no bearing here. However, we know of too many games being released in 2022 by Nintendo for that to be the case.



Mandalore76 said:

PS4 decline was precipitated by their announcement of PS5 release.  It was Sony's decision to not attempt to produce large volume of PS4 consoles throughout 2020 while they were building up stock of PS5's so that they could have the biggest launch ever.  Unless Nintendo makes an early 2022 announcement of a Switch 2 (or whatever Nintendo names their next console) and similarly slows Switch manufacturing to a trickle, then PS4's sales trajectory have no bearing here. However, we know of too many games being released in 2022 by Nintendo for that to be the case.

This is not a problem for Switch 2. They can all become cross-gen as is now the new trend.

For PS4 yes I agree, but if Sony produced more PS4s and made a pricecut in let's say 2019, this would turn some new casual buyers to PS4 instead of switch.

And would lower at the switch numbers for 2019 and 2020 by some 2-3M at least, because there would be some relevant choice on the market that would be cheaper than switch. And for the mass consumer who doesn't have all the knowledge we all have here about tech, games, and so on, the choice is easier.



yo33331 said:
Mandalore76 said:

The drop you are predicting Switch to experience next year is larger than any year on year drop the Wii experienced. 

Yes however drops in sales on consoles become bigger in the last 10 years than they were in 2010 or 2011.

So the drop that Wii had back then or DS in 2011 now will result in something around 15M units sold for the switch next year.

Just like PS4 drop is bigger than PS3. Or the XB1 drop is bigger than 360. Or just like 360 and PS3 dropes were bigger than previous consoles like PS2 or even PS1. Deaths on consoles are more brutal and fast now then they were before 10 or 15 years ago. With the times more and more people learn to jump from one tech to another. Those are the times we are living in.

As I said the thing that can prevent this from happening is 100$ price cut next year for switch or releasing Pro model. This will help steeping the decline.

Oh okay, I understand, you took a very specific situation to extrapole to infinite and beyond.

Here are the facts: covid had a huge impact on production, video game sales were bigger than ever in 2020, and everybody gor their part of the cake.

But it was also the year where the 2 big companies decided to move to another generation, and with chip shortages and production issues, maintaining old gen production and starting new gen production was hard. 

There were consoles shortages everywhere, but Sony and MS decided to stop the production of multiple models to maximise production of new consoles. MS even stopped One X and One SAD production in summer 2020.

So, no, there is no "bigger drop than before", it's just a specific case based on a very specific situation.

Just as your "Switch is used 90% of the time as a handheld" stuff, your analysis is completely wrong.

And I don't understand your point on price cut, you stated earlier it wasn't effective as it was 10 years ago.



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me