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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware June 20-26 - Switch Sells 376K, PS5 Sells 226K, XS Sells 136K

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

That would be fine for a drop to, say, 18 or 20 million, but when it's on tracking similarly to last year's 28 million this year, 15 million the following year is simply unrealistically low when its appeal is broader than dedicated consoles due to its hybrid nature, it's already tracking well ahead of PS4 and Wii, and it likely won't have the premature replacement that was the only reason DS dropped off so fast.

Basically, none of the reasons that caused other systems to stall passed 100 million apply to Switch.

Rather than a cliff, it will more likely taper off more gradually.

I added some lines in my previous post, put them here as well. - Also as I already said, the fruits of it's downfall have already started. It's second quarter is down with full million from it's first one, and it's the weakest one since quarter 3 of 2019. I expect Switch to hit 300K weekly by end of august. Starting January I expect numbers not higher than 300k weekly that can possibly reach the range of 200-250K weekly further in the year (without holiday season).

This year switch is making no more than 25. And okay, 18M is not out of the question, although a little optimistic for my expectations but still possible.

I said around 15M so where is the 16M standing it's not very from 18M right? but this is the best performance it can do if Nintendo don't do some surprise 100$ price cut. Then I agree it can even reach 25M for next year as well. However I am doubting it very much they would do so big of a price cut.

Also PS4 was ahead of PS2 sales too in 2019 .. but look what happened.

Wii have been ahead at one point from many systems, DS, even 3DS may have been ahead of PSP, PS3, 360, at one point but look at where it ended ..

PS4 and Wii are not good points of comparison for the Switch as they are totally different platforms. The Switch has wider reach than both and is not limited by their patterns.

No offense, but this whole thing just comes off as you desperately wishing for the Switch to fall off a cliff because the PS4 didn't live up to your expectations.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:

PS4 and Wii are not good points of comparison for the Switch as they are totally different platforms. The Switch has wider reach than both and is not limited by their patterns.

No offense, but this whole thing just comes off as you desperately wishing for the Switch to fall off a cliff because the PS4 didn't live up to your expectations.

PS4 has nothing to do with that. I am just giving it as an example because it is other successful console. I am giving also Wii and DS as an examples.

Also Yes, switch is different consoles. Every console have different characteristics, different prons and cons, different sales, different sales trajectories, however all of the consoles have one thing in common that all of them are going through - demise and death. I am just predicting that this time has come for switch.

And since pretty much every console in the last 10-15 years has died with medium to big drops I am expecting switch to follow as well. It had early years - till 2019, it had it's peaks - 2020, 2021, and now it's time to demise. 2022 - 15 to 18M at highest, 2023 - 6-10M 2024- 2-3M. Total lifetime prediction 130-140M

And also no offense to you, you are from the small number of people here I can say I like and respect, even if you have different opinions for some things, you know how to properly tell your words and thoughts while making valid points for the arguments.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 13 July 2021

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

PS4 and Wii are not good points of comparison for the Switch as they are totally different platforms. The Switch has wider reach than both and is not limited by their patterns.

No offense, but this whole thing just comes off as you desperately wishing for the Switch to fall off a cliff because the PS4 didn't live up to your expectations.

PS4 has nothing to do with that. I am just giving it as an example because it is other successful console. I am giving also Wii and DS as an examples.

Also Yes, switch is different consoles. Every console have different characteristics, different prons and cons, different sales, different sales trajectories, however all of the consoles have one thing in common that all of them are going through - demise and death. I am just predicting that this time has come for switch.

And since pretty much every console in the last 10-15 years has died with medium to big drops I am expecting switch to follow as well.

Your prediction is premature; 2022 is too early for Switch's death when its still selling like hotcakes and has no forthcoming reason for the stall you forecast. 2023 would be a better bet.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

Your prediction is premature; 2022 is too early for Switch's death when its still selling like hotcakes and has no forthcoming reason for the stall you forecast. 2023 would be a better bet.

edited last post.

Many consoles in the past have done the same, and next year they fall of a cliff.

We will see 2022



yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Your prediction is premature; 2022 is too early for Switch's death when its still selling like hotcakes and has no forthcoming reason for the stall you forecast. 2023 would be a better bet.

edited last post.

Many consoles in the past have done the same, and next year they fall of a cliff.

We will see 2022



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yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Your prediction is premature; 2022 is too early for Switch's death when its still selling like hotcakes and has no forthcoming reason for the stall you forecast. 2023 would be a better bet.

edited last post.

Many consoles in the past have done the same, and next year they fall of a cliff.

We will see 2022

Thank you for the kind words. (Edited post)

The way I see it, when a console falls off a cliff its always for a reason, from software support disappearing overnight on the Wii, to DS being cut short by 3DS; Switch isn't facing any of these things, it's just turning 5 years old in 2022, and still moving at a blazing pace. Something would have to happen to stall this kind of momentum, and I can see no such thing on the immediate horizon.

Personally, I just can't see any factor aside from it being straight up replaced holiday 2022 that could cause a drop of around 10 million or more year-over-year.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 14 July 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

Thank you for the kind words. (Edited post)

The way I see it, when a console falls off a cliff its always for a reason, from software support disappearing overnight on the Wii, to DS being cut short by 3DS; Switch isn't facing any of these things, it's just turning 5 years old in 2022, and still moving at a blazing pace. Something would have to happen to stall this kind of momentum, and I can see no such thing on the immediate horizon.

Personally, I just can't see any factor aside from it being straight up replaced holiday 2022 that could cause a drop of around 10 million year-over-year.

Let's put it that way.

If we had a time machine and could go back to the year before DS fell, or Wii fell or even PS4 fell, everyone you asked here would tell you the same for those same, not because of logic, but because of liking the console, wanting to do more, and also because of the current pace of the given console at the moment. Because in life is the same. When you are up most of the people start to think they are invincible and that they can't go down. They become confident and so on and so on. And then it is very difficult to see and to believe how you from being up will just go down. You don't believe it. But it happens.

DS was being cut why ? because Nintendo did so that the things turn out to be in that way. This is mistake from Nintendo. They did this mistake once, they can do it again.

And okay. something will happen - shift of the choice of most console buyers. 2020 2021 the choice of most people was what ? really. Switch. By 2020 everyone that wanted PS4 or xbox one already bought one. 2021 Most of the people can't get their hands on PS5 or XBSX. But they want to play on something. They get Switch. Without this exclusive choice that the most people had for this period of time as the most relevant and exciting console Switch would again do great numbers in 2020 and 2021 but would probably be at least 5M down for both years. 2022 will be the first year since 2019 people really would have a valid relevant choice other than Switch to choose. But with that reason, are coming some more that haven't been much of a reasons for the last 2 years as they will be now. Age of the system (people have used to buy new things/generations/tech whatever in the last 10 years as opposite to before where it wasn't so much widespread to always buy the newest thing) saturation point (many people that hadn't have switch - those 50M people since 2019, they already have and have no reason to buy new one again) price - not changed since launch which is leading to being on par with the new gen Series S and just 100$ less than PS5 digital.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 14 July 2021

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Thank you for the kind words. (Edited post)

The way I see it, when a console falls off a cliff its always for a reason, from software support disappearing overnight on the Wii, to DS being cut short by 3DS; Switch isn't facing any of these things, it's just turning 5 years old in 2022, and still moving at a blazing pace. Something would have to happen to stall this kind of momentum, and I can see no such thing on the immediate horizon.

Personally, I just can't see any factor aside from it being straight up replaced holiday 2022 that could cause a drop of around 10 million year-over-year.

Let's put it that way.

If we had a time machine and could go back to the year before DS fell, or Wii fell or even PS4 fell, everyone you asked here would tell you the same for those same, not because of logic, but because of liking the console, wanting to do more, and also because of the current pace of the given console at the moment. Because in life is the same. When you are up most of the people start to think they are invincible and that they can't go down. They become confident and so on and so on. And then it is very difficult to see and to believe how you from being up will just go down. You don't believe it. But it happens.

DS was being cut why ? because Nintendo did so that the things turn out to be in that way. This is mistake from Nintendo. They did this mistake once, they can do it again.

And okay. something will happen - shift of the choice of most console buyers. 2020 2021 the choice of most people was what ? really. Switch. By 2020 everyone that wanted PS4 or xbox one already bought one. 2021 Most of the people can't get their hands on PS5 or XBSX. But they want to play on something. They get Switch. Without those things Switch would again do great numbers in 2020 and 2021 but would probably be at least 5M down for both years. 2022 will be the first year since 2019 people really would have a valid relevant choice other than Switch to choose. But with that reason, are coming some more that haven't been much of a reasons for the last 2 years as they will be now. Age of the system (people have used to buy new things/generations/tech whatever in the last 10 years as opposite to before where it wasn't so much widespread to always buy the newest thing) saturation point (many people that hadn't have switch - those 50M people since 2019, they already have and have no reason to buy new one again) price - not changed since launch which is leading to being on par with the new gen Series S and just 100$ less than PS4 digital.

DS was cut because Nintendo felt the need to get the jump on the Vita; there is no new competing system to push forward Switch's successor.

Wii's software dried up because Nintendo was having to develop for 4 systems at once due to their split hardware lines; also not so with Switch. And we can already see from what's been announced so far that Switch's software in 2022 is stronger than Wii's 2011.

Switch isn't that old, it will only be turning 5 in 2022, and it won't be hitting saturation point yet next year considering its hybrid nature and its massive breadth of appeal all the way from blue ocean casuals to "hardcore" enthusiasts.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 14 July 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

DS was cut because Nintendo felt the need to get the jump on the Vita; there is no new competing system to push forward Switch's successor.

Wii's software dried up because Nintendo was having to develop for 4 systems at once due to their split hardware lines; also not so with Switch. And we can already see from what's been announced so far that Switch's software in 2022 is stronger than Wii's 2011.

Switch isn't that old, it will only be turning 5 in 2022, and it won't be hitting saturation point yet next year considering its hybrid nature and its massive breadth of appeal all the way from blue ocean casuals to "hardcore" enthusiasts.

Why to get jump on Vita ? The psp was far below DS, they really hadn't competition on the handheld market. Their fault if it was really for the Vita.

Also I've already said it. They could wait to release it till start of 2012, since the vita was launched worldwide then.

Their fault their mistakes. They can do mistakes again. In this case maybe announcing teasing or even releasing successor in 2022. It's all on them.

Wii started dropping in 2009. They had 2 systems back then, and were having 2 systems for the next 2 and a half years. And having all 4 systems in end of 2012. So much far away from when Wii began falling and it's software was stopped.

Sony or Microsoft doesn't rush or stop the success or the software of their systems 2 or 3 years before releasing new ones.

5 years is old. After march Switch is beginning it's 6th year. That's old. Especially in the market these days, where phones get out every 6 months or 1 year, and all of the tech releases very fast. And the switch's old tech inside doesn't really help.

But the new choice on the street is also big factor. Even though Switch is different type of console it is still game console and the new consoles will still lower the switch's sales for the year comparing to what would they've been if there wasn't other choice than switch.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 14 July 2021

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

DS was cut because Nintendo felt the need to get the jump on the Vita; there is no new competing system to push forward Switch's successor.

Wii's software dried up because Nintendo was having to develop for 4 systems at once due to their split hardware lines; also not so with Switch. And we can already see from what's been announced so far that Switch's software in 2022 is stronger than Wii's 2011.

Switch isn't that old, it will only be turning 5 in 2022, and it won't be hitting saturation point yet next year considering its hybrid nature and its massive breadth of appeal all the way from blue ocean casuals to "hardcore" enthusiasts.

Why to get jump on Vita ? The psp was far below DS, they really hadn't competition on the handheld market. Their fault if it was really for the Vita.

Also I've already said it. They could wait to release it till start of 2012, since the vita was launched worldwide then.

Their fault their mistakes. They can do mistakes again. In this case maybe announcing teasing or even releasing successor in 2022. It's all on them.

Wii started dropping in 2009. They had 2 systems back then, and were having 2 systems for the next 2 and a half years. And having all 4 systems in end of 2012. So much far away from when Wii began falling and it's software was stopped.

Sony or Microsoft doesn't rush or stop the success or the software of their systems 2 or 3 years before releasing new ones.

5 years is old. After march Switch is beginning it's 6th year. That's old. Especially in the market these days, where phones get out every 6 months or 1 year, and all of the tech releases very fast. And the switch's old tech inside doesn't really help.

But the new choice on the street is also big factor. Even though Switch is different type of console it is still game console and the new consoles will still lower the switch's sales for the year comparing to what would they've been if there wasn't other choice than switch.

Again though, the reasons for those mistakes do not exist with Switch, nor is there any sign at all Nintendo are heading in a similar direction.

Phones aren't a good point of comparison for Switch either, again totally different product. Wii's decine isn't analogous either as it followed a totally different trajectory.

If Switch's tech or competition from PS/Xbox was a problem it never would've sold in the first place, launching as it did midgen against more powerful dedicated consoles.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.