By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 26, 2021 - (June 21 - June 27)

trestres said:

Not much coming up for the Switch in the next months that could help sales maintain the lead vs. its last year performance.

Zelda SS HD won't do the trick. Next big thing is Mario Party N64 boards Remake, but that's not that big either. Pokemon remakes will be respectable, but nothing super big. Unless SMTV is huge, it's a missed opportunity for Nintendo this year. Metroid, WarioWare and the Advance Wars remakes will be small to medium sized.

You seem to not grasp the situation in japan at the moment, as well as not thinking some of those games you mention as big. You have 3 million sellers from what you listed, and possibly 2 of those games reaching 3mil and 4mil:”.



Around the Network
curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Pokemon, SMT V, Metroid Dread says you're wrong

I'm not saying those games won't sell well, I just can't see them lsignificantly boosting hardware sales. SMT and Metroid are niche and Pokemon is a remake and from a series that already has two games on Switch.

So let’s take a looksy here, going by japan sales since this is a Famitsu thread after all

May/Jun/July/Aug is the 2/3rd your talking about which imo is usually slow (at least july/aug) and I already disagree with you in terms of releases. You don’t look at system sellers and niche only. There is an in between here and that’s exactly what we have...

May is over but it had essentially Pokémon snap (releases last day of April) as well as some other small but meaningful games such as Miitopia (port), Detective games (this one is niche), Game builder Garage (might be as sleeper hit with 500k sales or more). June was slow but it had a few small releases and a new Mario golf game. In terms of July it has a lot of games actually. From Skyward Sword which is still a notable release as well as the new soccer game, Shin Chan game (potential sleeper), Monster Hunter Stories 2, NTWEWY, and more (you can add Pokémon Unite, a F2P but still a huge game). Aug is slow but sept will pick up but to name a few, the new Yugioh Game that has potential to be a million seller and a system seller as well as holiday Obon week. NMH3.

Regardless of the games you mentioned, Pokémon BDSP is a Pokémon game which is a huge game that sold nearly 6mil in japan. Metroid can surprise even it’s niche but it can still change so it’s a wait and see. I totally disagree with SMT as it’s a system seller, nothing like a new Zelda/Pokémon but a system seller regardless. And you underestimate a new WarioWare and Mario party superstars, a franchise in which was loved back on n64, now having the best of the best from the franchise. I haven’t bought a Mario party since the GameCube days and I’m very interested in this one for many reasons.

Lastly, not sure why not many people realize the OG model is still sold out. The rumor of the pro and manufacturing might actually be hindering the OG model, if demand was really going down numbers would be hitting 30k-40k weekly with no sellouts.

...



tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

I'm not saying those games won't sell well, I just can't see them lsignificantly boosting hardware sales. SMT and Metroid are niche and Pokemon is a remake and from a series that already has two games on Switch.

So let’s take a looksy here, going by japan sales since this is a Famitsu thread after all

May/Jun/July/Aug is the 2/3rd your talking about which imo is usually slow (at least july/aug) and I already disagree with you in terms of releases. You don’t look at system sellers and niche only. There is an in between here and that’s exactly what we have...

May is over but it had essentially Pokémon snap (releases last day of April) as well as some other small but meaningful games such as Miitopia (port), Detective games (this one is niche), Game builder Garage (might be as sleeper hit with 500k sales or more). June was slow but it had a few small releases and a new Mario golf game. In terms of July it has a lot of games actually. From Skyward Sword which is still a notable release as well as the new soccer game, Shin Chan game (potential sleeper), Monster Hunter Stories 2, NTWEWY, and more (you can add Pokémon Unite, a F2P but still a huge game). Aug is slow but sept will pick up but to name a few, the new Yugioh Game that has potential to be a million seller and a system seller as well as holiday Obon week. NMH3.

Regardless of the games you mentioned, Pokémon BDSP is a Pokémon game which is a huge game that sold nearly 6mil in japan. Metroid can surprise even it’s niche but it can still change so it’s a wait and see. I totally disagree with SMT as it’s a system seller, nothing like a new Zelda/Pokémon but a system seller regardless. And you underestimate a new WarioWare and Mario party superstars, a franchise in which was loved back on n64, now having the best of the best from the franchise. I haven’t bought a Mario party since the GameCube days and I’m very interested in this one for many reasons.

Lastly, not sure why not many people realize the OG model is still sold out. The rumor of the pro and manufacturing might actually be hindering the OG model, if demand was really going down numbers would be hitting 30k-40k weekly with no sellouts.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
curl-6 said:

I'm not saying those games won't sell well, I just can't see them significantly boosting hardware sales. SMT and Metroid are niche and Pokemon is a remake and from a series that already has two games on Switch.

I can agree with Metroid, but not with SMT, at least not in Japan. While it won't be as big as Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest or Momotaro Dentetsu, the fact is that very few games could get up to those sizes. SMT V should do a couple 100k at the very least in Japan ad push sales quite a bit.

SMT seems pretty niche, it's never sold more than 590k globally or 380k in Japan (and that was in the 1990s) according to VGChartz, doesn't exactly scream system seller. It may give a small bump, like Metroid, by bringing in a few core fans who haven't jumped on the Switch train yet but I can't imagine that will be many people.

The Pokemon and Mario Party remakes seem like stuff that will sell to the already converted, same for Skyward Sword, Warioware, etc.

Hardware supply may not be as plentiful as it could be but it feels like their lineup is very conservative for the second year running.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 03 July 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

So let’s take a looksy here, going by japan sales since this is a Famitsu thread after all

May/Jun/July/Aug is the 2/3rd your talking about which imo is usually slow (at least july/aug) and I already disagree with you in terms of releases. You don’t look at system sellers and niche only. There is an in between here and that’s exactly what we have...

May is over but it had essentially Pokémon snap (releases last day of April) as well as some other small but meaningful games such as Miitopia (port), Detective games (this one is niche), Game builder Garage (might be as sleeper hit with 500k sales or more). June was slow but it had a few small releases and a new Mario golf game. In terms of July it has a lot of games actually. From Skyward Sword which is still a notable release as well as the new soccer game, Shin Chan game (potential sleeper), Monster Hunter Stories 2, NTWEWY, and more (you can add Pokémon Unite, a F2P but still a huge game). Aug is slow but sept will pick up but to name a few, the new Yugioh Game that has potential to be a million seller and a system seller as well as holiday Obon week. NMH3.

Regardless of the games you mentioned, Pokémon BDSP is a Pokémon game which is a huge game that sold nearly 6mil in japan. Metroid can surprise even it’s niche but it can still change so it’s a wait and see. I totally disagree with SMT as it’s a system seller, nothing like a new Zelda/Pokémon but a system seller regardless. And you underestimate a new WarioWare and Mario party superstars, a franchise in which was loved back on n64, now having the best of the best from the franchise. I haven’t bought a Mario party since the GameCube days and I’m very interested in this one for many reasons.

Lastly, not sure why not many people realize the OG model is still sold out. The rumor of the pro and manufacturing might actually be hindering the OG model, if demand was really going down numbers would be hitting 30k-40k weekly with no sellouts.

Bofferbrauer2 said:

I can agree with Metroid, but not with SMT, at least not in Japan. While it won't be as big as Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest or Momotaro Dentetsu, the fact is that very few games could get up to those sizes. SMT V should do a couple 100k at the very least in Japan ad push sales quite a bit.

SMT seems pretty niche, it's never sold more than 590k globally or 380k in Japan (and that was in the 1990s) according to VGChartz, doesn't exactly scream system seller. It may give a small bump, like Metroid, by bringing in a few core fans who haven't jumped on the Switch train yet but I can't imagine that will be many people.

The Pokemon and Mario Party remakes seem like stuff that will sell to the already converted, same for Skyward Sword, Warioware, etc.

Hardware supply may not be as plentiful as it could be but it feels like their lineup is very conservative for the second year running.

A game can still push hardware even if it’s not the best selling software. SMT has a hardcore fan base as well as Metroid so I disagree, both those games can move hardware. Not as much as a new smash or Pokémon game but still can move the needle. If what your saying is true for Pokémon/MP/Skyward Sword and ironically WarioWare then system might as well not sell as high as it is now. Those games can still pull in many consumers, especially when 3 out of the 4 you mentioned can be multi million sellers in japan. It’ll push hardware.

lastly hardware supply is still not plentiful so regardless the system is still selling crazy high while selling out. It’s early to even consider what NSW can sell (as a baseline or as low) since demand hasn’t been met yet. I don’t think it’s as dire as you make it out to be. you see notable jumps when those releases, more so MPS/WarioWare. He’ll even SMTV

....



tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

I can agree with Metroid, but not with SMT, at least not in Japan. While it won't be as big as Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest or Momotaro Dentetsu, the fact is that very few games could get up to those sizes. SMT V should do a couple 100k at the very least in Japan ad push sales quite a bit.

SMT seems pretty niche, it's never sold more than 590k globally or 380k in Japan (and that was in the 1990s) according to VGChartz, doesn't exactly scream system seller. It may give a small bump, like Metroid, by bringing in a few core fans who haven't jumped on the Switch train yet but I can't imagine that will be many people.

The Pokemon and Mario Party remakes seem like stuff that will sell to the already converted, same for Skyward Sword, Warioware, etc.

Hardware supply may not be as plentiful as it could be but it feels like their lineup is very conservative for the second year running.

A game can still push hardware even if it’s not the best selling software. SMT has a hardcore fan base as well as Metroid so I disagree, both those games can move hardware. Not as much as a new smash or Pokémon game but still can move the needle. If what your saying is true for Pokémon/MP/Skyward Sword and ironically WarioWare then system might as well not sell as high as it is now. Those games can still pull in many consumers, especially when 3 out of the 4 you mentioned can be multi million sellers in japan. It’ll push hardware.

lastly hardware supply is still not plentiful so regardless the system is still selling crazy high while selling out. It’s early to even consider what NSW can sell (as a baseline or as low) since demand hasn’t been met yet. I don’t think it’s as dire as you make it out to be. you see notable jumps when those releases, more so MPS/WarioWare. He’ll even SMTV

It was not my intention to make things out as "dire". The Switch is in no danger. I just feel like their second half of the year lacks a big system seller like 2017/2018/2019 had and as such isn't quite as robust as it could've been if, say, they had Pokemon Legends in place of D/P or something. That's all.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Around the Network
curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

A game can still push hardware even if it’s not the best selling software. SMT has a hardcore fan base as well as Metroid so I disagree, both those games can move hardware. Not as much as a new smash or Pokémon game but still can move the needle. If what your saying is true for Pokémon/MP/Skyward Sword and ironically WarioWare then system might as well not sell as high as it is now. Those games can still pull in many consumers, especially when 3 out of the 4 you mentioned can be multi million sellers in japan. It’ll push hardware.

lastly hardware supply is still not plentiful so regardless the system is still selling crazy high while selling out. It’s early to even consider what NSW can sell (as a baseline or as low) since demand hasn’t been met yet. I don’t think it’s as dire as you make it out to be. you see notable jumps when those releases, more so MPS/WarioWare. He’ll even SMTV

It was not my intention to make things out as "dire". The Switch is in no danger. I just feel like their second half of the year lacks a big system seller like 2017/2018/2019 had and as such isn't quite as robust as it could've been if, say, they had Pokemon Legends in place of D/P or something. That's all.

Your right, there is no game that is on that level.ironically 2022 seems like it can be a potential 2017 all over again with major releases. (Pokémon LA/BotW2/Splat3)

...



tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

It was not my intention to make things out as "dire". The Switch is in no danger. I just feel like their second half of the year lacks a big system seller like 2017/2018/2019 had and as such isn't quite as robust as it could've been if, say, they had Pokemon Legends in place of D/P or something. That's all.

Your right, there is no game that is on that level.ironically 2022 seems like it can be a potential 2017 all over again with major releases. (Pokémon LA/BotW2/Splat3)

Pretty much yeah, plus Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope, Project Triangle Strategy, and a bunch more we don't even know about yet. I have high hopes for 2022.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

2020 H1 TOTAL: 3.102.694
2020 H1 NSW HW: 2.666.882 (86%)
2020 H1 PS4 HW: 435.812 (14%)

2021 TOTAL HW: 3.685.073
2021 TOTAL NSW HW: 3.001.457 (81%)
2021 TOTAL PS4/PS5 HW: 683.616 (19%)

Top 30 2020 H1 Famitsu:

  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.004.720 NEW
  2. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 931.165 NEW
  3. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co) - 650.859
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 577.875
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 346.034
  6. [NSW] Smash Ultimate - 284.717
  7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 280.662
  8. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon (Pokemon Co) - 259.513 NEW
  9. [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 NEW
  10. [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769 NEW
  11. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 219.039
  12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 217.875
  13. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 212.515
  14. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 204.689 NEW
  15. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 171.620 NEW
  16. [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772 NEW
  17. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 152.239
  18. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 149.898 NEW
  19. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654 NEW
  20. [PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 133.593 NEW
  21. [PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315 NEW
  22. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 130.369
  23. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 123.920 NEW
  24. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 122.091
  25. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) 119.007
  26. [NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 NEW
  27. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 111.474
  28. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094 NEW
  29. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 109.584
  30. [NSW] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 NEW

NSW - 20
PS4 - 10

TOTAL: 11.783.143

NSW TOTAL: 9.312.518 (79%)

PS4 TOTAL: 2.470.625 (21%)

Top 30 2021 H1 Famitsu:

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.272.644
  2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) – 1.009.417
  3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 790.477
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 567.664
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 431.300
  6. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 429.186
  7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) – 316.005
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 305.386
  9. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140
  10. [NSW] New Pokemon Snap (Pokemon Co.) - 248.991
  11. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass (Pokemon Co.) - 238.732
  12. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 214.588
  13. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 200.065
  14. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 189.718
  15. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 188.692
  16. [NSW] Miitopia - 169.640
  17. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 158.265
  18. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091
  19. [NSW] Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 127.968
  20. [NSW] Game Builder Garage - 126.008
  21. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 103.273
  22. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 101.352
  23. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 100.954
  24. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 80.912
  25. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 80.508
  26. [NSW] Mario Golf: Super Rush - 80.430 / NEW
  27. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 73.581
  28. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
  29. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 68.533
  30. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 67.692

NSW - 28
PS4 - 2

TOTAL: 9.232.008

NSW TOTAL: 8.884.025 (96.2%)

PS4 TOTAL: 347.983 (3.8%)

Nothing this year could match New Horizon last year on the Software side, however the real story is the decisive decline of the PS4/PS5 software Year over Year. Ten titles managed to make it in the Top 30 during the first half of 2020, in 2021 only two titles manages to make the Top 30 - Resident Evil: Village and Nier Replicant this doesn't bode well for the rest of the year as we enter the slow period for PS4/PS5. 

Next major titles on the system are Demon Slayer, Tales of Arise, Lost Judgement, Idolmaster, Horizon Forbidden West, Kena: Bridge of Spirits(maybe), Battlefield 2042, from these it's difficult to think of many that will surpass 200K which is the minimum needed to 100% ensure you make it into the Top 30 End of Year. Resident Evil: Village could very well end up the best selling PS4 game this year if software continues to under-perform. Demon Slayer is attached to a huge IP and is possibly the other game that has a chance to surpass 200K, while Tales of Arise & Lost Judgement would have probably gotten to 200K if they were launched an year earlier. 

In any-case there is definitely an existing scenario where the Top 30 is entirely Switch games, last year there were 8 PS4 titles that made the End of Year Top 30 - Final Fantasy VII Remake, Ghost of Tsushima, Resident Evil 3, Yakuza: Like a Dragon, The Last of Us Part II, eBaseball, Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost On & Nioh 2

This will be down to third parties support greatly accelerating compared to last year especially from Capcom, Konami, Marvelous, Atlus, Neos. The other factor is more mid-sized titles from Nintendo - Super Mario Party, Miitopia, Game Builder Garage, Mario Golf, Skyward Sword HD, Wariowear, Metroid Dread all have a good chance to make it to 200K leaving fewer slots for PS titles than ever before, especially as evergreens are already surpassing 200K

Legs for titles like Fitness Boxing 2, Human Fall Flat, Sakuna, DQXIS, Age of Calamity, Pikmin 3 Deluxe, might also push them towards 200K, as these games are continuing to add a thousand sales at the very least per week & likely to get boosts during Obon/December - making it very likely that a majority of them might also reach the milestone. 

It would be wild if PS manages zero percent market share in the Top 30 and would definitely hurt the long term aspirations of titles like Final Fantasy XVI or Monster Hunter World 2 as PS exclusives. 

Outside of actual hardware being re-sold outside of Japan there is no explanation on how on a system that has so far surpassed 850K units sold the best selling game is barely above 50K. Worst still is the PS4 software situation, as the audience there seems to have stopped buying software at large, leaving to a huge collapse for the system in terms of software sales YoY. 

It was always expected that Japanese third parties would be slow to transition to the PS5, we've seen it with the PS3 and the PS4... but now it's more of a question of what you are transitioning to? In the past you could make plans that were founded on strong third party sales on the PS ecosystem, PS2, PSP, PS3, PSV, PS4 all brought relative success for their third party backers, but those systems never really faced competition like the Switch. Even during the Wii/DS era at best Nintendo managed 65% of the hardware market-share and as far as third party sales there were fairly close between the two major platform holders. This year Nintendo continues to maintain over 90% of the software market and with Splatoon 3, Open World Pokemon and Zelda Sequel launching next year it's likely they will maintain their momentum into 2022. 



curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Pokemon, SMT V, Metroid Dread says you're wrong

I'm not saying those games won't sell well, I just can't see them significantly boosting hardware sales. SMT and Metroid are niche and Pokemon is a remake and from a series that already has two games on Switch.

I don't want to say too much at the moment, as I'm currently finishing up an article on the subject, but I believe that Nintendo may have one more game up their sleeve for this holiday that could potentially boost hardware like you say.  Let's just say, we may be in for some jungle fever before the end of the year. ;)



archbrix said:
curl-6 said:

I'm not saying those games won't sell well, I just can't see them significantly boosting hardware sales. SMT and Metroid are niche and Pokemon is a remake and from a series that already has two games on Switch.

I don't want to say too much at the moment, as I'm currently finishing up an article on the subject, but I believe that Nintendo may have one more game up their sleeve for this holiday that could potentially boost hardware like you say.  Let's just say, we may be in for some jungle fever before the end of the year. ;)

If you are referring to what I think you are, then that would be a dream come true for me. I'm trying not to get my hopes up too high but I would absolutely love it if the rumors were correct. Though it does beg the question of why on earth it would skip E3 haha.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.