It was not my intention to make things out as "dire". The Switch is in no danger. I just feel like their second half of the year lacks a big system seller like 2017/2018/2019 had and as such isn't quite as robust as it could've been if, say, they had Pokemon Legends in place of D/P or something. That's all.

Your right, there is no game that is on that level.ironically 2022 seems like it can be a potential 2017 all over again with major releases. (Pokémon LA/BotW2/Splat3)

...

Pretty much yeah, plus Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope, Project Triangle Strategy, and a bunch more we don't even know about yet. I have high hopes for 2022.

2020 H1 TOTAL: 3.102.694
2020 H1 NSW HW: 2.666.882 (86%)
2020 H1 PS4 HW: 435.812 (14%)

2021 TOTAL HW: 3.685.073
2021 TOTAL NSW HW: 3.001.457 (81%)
2021 TOTAL PS4/PS5 HW: 683.616 (19%)

Top 30 2020 H1 Famitsu:

1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.004.720 NEW
2. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 931.165 NEW
3. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co) - 650.859
4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 577.875
5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 346.034
6. [NSW] Smash Ultimate - 284.717
7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 280.662
8. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon (Pokemon Co) - 259.513 NEW
9. [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 NEW
10. [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769 NEW
11. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 219.039
12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 217.875
13. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 212.515
14. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 204.689 NEW
15. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 171.620 NEW
16. [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772 NEW
17. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 152.239
18. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 149.898 NEW
19. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654 NEW
20. [PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 133.593 NEW
21. [PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315 NEW
22. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 130.369
23. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 123.920 NEW
24. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 122.091
25. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) 119.007
26. [NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 NEW
27. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 111.474
28. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094 NEW
29. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 109.584
30. [NSW] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 NEW

NSW - 20
PS4 - 10

TOTAL: 11.783.143

NSW TOTAL: 9.312.518 (79%)

PS4 TOTAL: 2.470.625 (21%)

Top 30 2021 H1 Famitsu:

1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.272.644
2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) – 1.009.417
3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 790.477
4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 567.664
5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 431.300
6. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 429.186
7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) – 316.005
8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 305.386
9. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140
10. [NSW] New Pokemon Snap (Pokemon Co.) - 248.991
11. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass (Pokemon Co.) - 238.732
12. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 214.588
13. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 200.065
14. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 189.718
15. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 188.692
16. [NSW] Miitopia - 169.640
17. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 158.265
18. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091
19. [NSW] Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 127.968
20. [NSW] Game Builder Garage - 126.008
21. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 103.273
22. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 101.352
23. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 100.954
24. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 80.912
25. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 80.508
26. [NSW] Mario Golf: Super Rush - 80.430 / NEW
27. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 73.581
28. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
29. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 68.533
30. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 67.692

NSW - 28
PS4 - 2

TOTAL: 9.232.008

NSW TOTAL: 8.884.025 (96.2%)

PS4 TOTAL: 347.983 (3.8%)

Nothing this year could match New Horizon last year on the Software side, however the real story is the decisive decline of the PS4/PS5 software Year over Year. Ten titles managed to make it in the Top 30 during the first half of 2020, in 2021 only two titles manages to make the Top 30 - Resident Evil: Village and Nier Replicant this doesn't bode well for the rest of the year as we enter the slow period for PS4/PS5. 

Next major titles on the system are Demon Slayer, Tales of Arise, Lost Judgement, Idolmaster, Horizon Forbidden West, Kena: Bridge of Spirits(maybe), Battlefield 2042, from these it's difficult to think of many that will surpass 200K which is the minimum needed to 100% ensure you make it into the Top 30 End of Year. Resident Evil: Village could very well end up the best selling PS4 game this year if software continues to under-perform. Demon Slayer is attached to a huge IP and is possibly the other game that has a chance to surpass 200K, while Tales of Arise & Lost Judgement would have probably gotten to 200K if they were launched an year earlier. 

In any-case there is definitely an existing scenario where the Top 30 is entirely Switch games, last year there were 8 PS4 titles that made the End of Year Top 30 - Final Fantasy VII Remake, Ghost of Tsushima, Resident Evil 3, Yakuza: Like a Dragon, The Last of Us Part II, eBaseball, Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost On & Nioh 2

This will be down to third parties support greatly accelerating compared to last year especially from Capcom, Konami, Marvelous, Atlus, Neos. The other factor is more mid-sized titles from Nintendo - Super Mario Party, Miitopia, Game Builder Garage, Mario Golf, Skyward Sword HD, Wariowear, Metroid Dread all have a good chance to make it to 200K leaving fewer slots for PS titles than ever before, especially as evergreens are already surpassing 200K. 

Legs for titles like Fitness Boxing 2, Human Fall Flat, Sakuna, DQXIS, Age of Calamity, Pikmin 3 Deluxe, might also push them towards 200K, as these games are continuing to add a thousand sales at the very least per week & likely to get boosts during Obon/December - making it very likely that a majority of them might also reach the milestone. 

It would be wild if PS manages zero percent market share in the Top 30 and would definitely hurt the long term aspirations of titles like Final Fantasy XVI or Monster Hunter World 2 as PS exclusives. 

Outside of actual hardware being re-sold outside of Japan there is no explanation on how on a system that has so far surpassed 850K units sold the best selling game is barely above 50K. Worst still is the PS4 software situation, as the audience there seems to have stopped buying software at large, leaving to a huge collapse for the system in terms of software sales YoY. 

It was always expected that Japanese third parties would be slow to transition to the PS5, we've seen it with the PS3 and the PS4... but now it's more of a question of what you are transitioning to? In the past you could make plans that were founded on strong third party sales on the PS ecosystem, PS2, PSP, PS3, PSV, PS4 all brought relative success for their third party backers, but those systems never really faced competition like the Switch. Even during the Wii/DS era at best Nintendo managed 65% of the hardware market-share and as far as third party sales there were fairly close between the two major platform holders. This year Nintendo continues to maintain over 90% of the software market and with Splatoon 3, Open World Pokemon and Zelda Sequel launching next year it's likely they will maintain their momentum into 2022. 

I don't want to say too much at the moment, as I'm currently finishing up an article on the subject, but I believe that Nintendo may have one more game up their sleeve for this holiday that could potentially boost hardware like you say.  Let's just say, we may be in for some jungle fever before the end of the year. ;)

If you are referring to what I think you are, then that would be a dream come true for me. I'm trying not to get my hopes up too high but I would absolutely love it if the rumors were correct. Though it does beg the question of why on earth it would skip E3 haha.

Looks like Rol isn't posting his table as the new week is out so here I'll update it.