Few of you know that I had already predicted that the hybrid Nintendo console would dominate gen 9. I did this years ago (in 2014) because I understand the video game market and was able to predict years in advance the factors that would make that a reality. The main reason was a unified library between Nintendo's home and portable console, which prior to the hybrid were fragmented, and fragmented their release schedule, making it much stronger once unified.

Like TBone, I like to make controversion predictions because, like history has shown us, when most people take for granted by looking at popularity, they are often wrong by using the popularity factor alone. Much more important real factors make the success of a console, and now with Xbox we have an upcoming winner. Let me explain.

The xbox gamepass looks like just any other game delivery service, but in reality it is a very special one. Xbox gamepass is very aggressive.

On day 1, xbox owners get to play the very best offerings because Microsoft is putting their 1st party games on gamepass at launch. Not only that, but they are hard at work with partners, making sure they do the very same thing. Let's compare some alternatives. Stadia for example was a ruin from the start. Google offers users a membership, but users still have to pay full price for games during their membership. Apple offers Apple arcade, but the games are not what most gamers expect, many being small indie app-like games that are not strong in front of the main industry games. Playstation offers Playstation now, however the main games are not there on launch and the service is streamed.

With Xbox gamepass, gamers can download top games directly to their xbox and play them as if they own the game. And even games they might not buy, they can play due to their subscription, like icing on a cake.

This makes gamepass a very enticing service for people who want to play games without committing to high prices for a full game purchase, while giving others the option to do so if they want to. Someone unsure of what console to choose can easily purchase an xbox with a gamepass subscription and get playing immediately.

As people become more and more aware of this purchasing option, I predict the following:

• Microsoft will gain a lot of ground in the US, probably beating the playstation by a two to one ratio in console sales over the course of the generation.
• Sony will continue to keep a hold on Europe as gamers are very loyal to the brand there and Sony's marketing is very strong there. Over the course of the generation, Microsoft will get strong in the UK but continue to struggle in Spain, Italy, France and other mediterranean countries that are dominated by Sony.
• In Japan, Nintendo will continue to dominate leaving little room for the other two, esp. Sony, to get an advantage there.
• While gamepass will be popular on PC, Xbox will be the place to play since the console is a lot cheaper than a gaming PC, and thus much more accessible to the mainstream.

Therefore, my prediction is that while Sony will be very strong this gen with 1st party software, with a similar strength to the PS4, Xbox will catch up to Sony within the first 3 years of the lifespan of the gen. This will surprise a lot of people because most underestimate the importance of gamepass and its upcoming impact.

The sales for both consoles will be very strong, stronger than the PS3 era. Both consoles will finish at around 100M units each.

People seem to forget that the Xbox 360 had it's own mishaps that held it back and damaged the brand as well.

Aka. RROD.

Sony wasn't the only company to drop the ball, they just dropped more balls and more often.

I dunno, man, GamePass has been out for more than four years, and while everyone seems to agree it's a good service...it hasn't had much of an impact on console sales. No more than PSNow (which is a similar but less-known service). 

The power differential between the consoles is negligible, and how can anyone say the XSX's controller is better? I dunno, man, I still don't see it and PS5 is still regularly selling almost 2x what Xbox is on a week to week basis. A similar ratio to last generation. 

I think the only thing Xbox can do is release some games. so far, we're nearing the 1 year anniversary of these consoles and Xbox still only has two exclusives. a Gears tactics game and Death's Door. Halo doesn't come out until December, and I don't personally know of any games that are coming out between them. On the flip side, Sony has countless exclusives - some cross generational, some Gen 8 remasters/rereleases, some indies, some on PC, some that are pure exclusive - and I think gamers worldwide know this. 

As far as I can tell, this generation's competition doesn't start until Halo comes out, and hopefully with every few months when something like Forza Horizon 5, Avowed, Everwild, Perfect Dark, Elder Scrolls VI, Starfield, etc comes out. They've got a lot in the pipeline and damn near unlimited potential, but this generational battle really doesn't start until they start releasing games that can't be bought on the competition. 

GamePass is constantly evolving and getting better, the place it was in four years ago is completely different than now. It’s not all that similar to Now either, because it offers bigger games and offers them day one at times, too. It’s also offering DLCs now. It’s not going to have a huge effect on sales until it reaches a wider audience, which MS is working on with xCloud and the GamePass smart device. 

Idk if the DualSense is better or not, it’s too early, but I was speaking entirely on the value perspective. It’s not even close imho. Also if you say you’re counting cross gen and PC and indies etc on PS5 then Xbox has more than two exclusives lol. I agree about the games though, like I said, once all these studios start dropping games it’s going to make GamePass even more insane than it already is.

Yes, GamePass is getting better all the time. this is true. Yet so is PSNow. Oh, and the weekly sales gap between the two has stayed pretty consistent ever since the launch of the new consoles. 

This is exactly the reason I've always been so critical of Microsoft and the arguments people use to support them. All of the arguments make sense on paper, but there are no tangible results. "Oh, they have so many games in the works! Microsoft owns 23 studios!" yeah? Well then why do we not see a lot of new games coming out for the systems? Why are we nearly a year into the XSX's life and there's nothing on that system you can't get on PS consoles or Nintendo consoles or PC aside from 2 games? (You say there's more, but I couldn't find any. and so you know I keep my count to only games with 75 or higher metacritic; shit like Destruction All-Stars isn't helping PS with its 62 so neither is State of Decay 2 with its whatever it was, I think 67).

"GamePass is going to be a game changer!" people say. Well....then why hasn't it changed the game? aside from getting more, newer games on the system, where does it have to grow? People have been saying this for 4 years, and while it seems to be the only real argument people make for XSX anymore, it's still not enough to compete. Some people care, of course. But then you look at Nintendo and Sony's offerings and both of those are selling far better, far more consistently, and have many more games you can't play on the competition. Look at games like Breath of the Wild and Mario Kart and Animal Crossing and God of War and Horizon Zero Dawn and The Last of Us Part 2...all games exclusive to their respective brand, sold remarkably well, and got great reviews. When was the last time Xbox had that? 

It's nice to have hope, I'll never denounce that reality. buying new consoles, no matter the company it comes from, is always a long-term investment. nobody buys a PS5 because they just HAVE to have Bugsnax or even Returnal. The thing is, until we actually start seeing some of these promises on Microsoft's end come true, there's literally nothing anyone can say that will make it seem like Xbox is ever going to return to the same heights of the 360's glory days. Without any of their promises coming true, or any of their predictions being made into reality, it's just hopeful thoughts and wishes. Until the industry is actually changed, we can't assume GamePass is going to change the industry. it's had four years to do so, and while it's moved the needle a notch or two, it has not tipped the scales like Microsoft and its many fans have been saying since its inception. 

Your perception is not the same as the reality we live in. What you say is happening is not happening. what you think is going to happen isn't likely to happen unless some drastic changes occur, first. 

Plus you seem to think there's ANY parity between the Dualsense and the Xbox Series X's controller. I thought that was as foregone a conclusion as one could possibly imagine (That the Dualsense is superior in literally every way except price, which even then isn't enough of a disparity to disregard the leap between them in terms of features and quality) 

Hilarious nonsense unrelated to like 90% of what I said or completely missing the point of what I said all while ironically claiming I didn't actually read their posts or understand what they said...