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Forums - Sales - Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or neither?

 

Will Switch outsell PS2 and/or DS?

Yes, it will outsell PS2's (~159Million) 100 57.47%
 
Will outsell the DS, but not the PS2 74 42.53%
 
Switch will fall short of both DS & PS2 0 0%
 
Total:174
Mandalore76 on 29 April 2021
curl-6 said:

What makes Switch especially hard to predict in my view is the uncertainty regarding the length of its lifespan. Nintendo are very inconsistent when it comes to how long they support their systems for.

For this reason, while 140-150 million seems most likely to me, it's hard to nail down when I can see it being replaced anywhere from 2022 to 2024.

I think the early Splatoon 3 announcement was Nintendo's way of guaranteeing everyone there would be no Switch replacement in 2022.



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Matsku on 29 April 2021
scottslater said:
Matsku said:

The pandemic increased demand for all electronics so saying that it hurt the Switch more than helped is disingenuous at best. I agree in that I doubt the Switch would have done way worse without it though.

I think it's pretty clear that the pandemic is hurting more than helping all electronics at this point.

The current shortage is mostly because manufacturers underestimated demand. Even with it The Ps5 is having the best first six months of any console so some of the Switch demand in 2020 was definitely because of Covid.



AJNShelton on 29 April 2021

I'd like to add 2 things to the yes I didn't thought earlier:
- the Switch launched in China 2 years ago, we can def see the console reaching new hights there, unlike the PS2 (if I am not mistaken)
- the console market keeps growing, we're now 7.9 billion people on Earth, we were 6.5 billion during PS2's time, from now on successful consoles will sell way more than ever



Eagle367 on 29 April 2021
Kakadu18 said:
Eagle367 said:

It's way different though. The Wii peaked very early i.e in it's 3rd year and then had a not so steep slope decline. It was a reasonable enough decline. Whereas switch might just peak this year, it's 4th and it has sold more before the peak has happened plus it's peak is much higher. The Wii doesn't even come close. The switch potentially has 3 years that wills ell higher than the Wii's peak. As Norion has shown, even a bad slope will lead to 140mil and as others have shown, a decent slope will lead to outselling the PS2. All ninty has to do is not replace it early, keep releasing the games and maybe release that switch plus or whatever revision by the end of this fiscal year. 

This year is the Switch's 5th year. 

Sorry typo mate



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scottslater on 29 April 2021
Matsku said:
scottslater said:

I think it's pretty clear that the pandemic is hurting more than helping all electronics at this point.

The current shortage is mostly because manufacturers underestimated demand. Even with it The Ps5 is having the best first six months of any console so some of the Switch demand in 2020 was definitely because of Covid.

Has nothing to do with underestimating demand and everything to do with supply chain and manufacturing disruption paired with major shortages of materials, in particular semiconductors (and it's effecting everything).

https://screenrant.com/nintendo-switch-stock-shortage-2021-semiconductor/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-semiconductor-shortage-is-here-to-stay-but-it-will-affect-chip-companies-differently-11618678056

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/global-chip-shortage-reaching-crisis-point-as-ps5-xbox-series-x-remain-difficult-to-find/1100-6489208/

https://news.yahoo.com/playstation-5-sales-surge-despite-134210905.html

https://www.tomsguide.com/news/forget-ps5-restocks-global-chip-shortage-now-spilling-over-to-all-of-these-products

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/whats-causing-the-chip-shortage-affecting-ps5-cars-and-more.html

https://www.pcmag.com/news/sony-wants-to-double-ps5-shipments-despite-chip-shortage

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/ford-cuts-production-chip-shortage/

Last edited by scottslater - on 29 April 2021

Nintendo with the Switch:

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brute on 29 April 2021
SKMBlake said:

I'd like to add 2 things to the yes I didn't thought earlier:
- the Switch launched in China 2 years ago, we can def see the console reaching new hights there, unlike the PS2 (if I am not mistaken)
- the console market keeps growing, we're now 7.9 billion people on Earth, we were 6.5 billion during PS2's time, from now on successful consoles will sell way more than ever

There are more options to play nowadays then during the PS2 era. Additionally, consoles are becoming more and more reliable so people arent buying as many consoles nowadays (software sales support this).

Back then people would buy more than one PS2/X360 etc due to the defective issues.



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

jonathanalis on 29 April 2021

Not easy to predict when we don't know its life span and software.
Pasting covid, animal crossing and monster hunter, it has to mirror its ascending curve, but now without new 20 million seller games, I.e. it has to rely on ever greens to sell hardware rather than new system seller games.
I feel like 40% do and 60 don't outsell ps2.



scottslater on 29 April 2021
jonathanalis said:

Not easy to predict when we don't know its life span and software.
Pasting covid, animal crossing and monster hunter, it has to mirror its ascending curve, but now without new 20 million seller games, I.e. it has to rely on ever greens to sell hardware rather than new system seller games.
I feel like 40% do and 60 don't outsell ps2.

Pokemon and BotW2 will be 20+ million sellers, and that's what we know is coming. Super Mario: Odyssey 2 and Mario Kart 9 would be other potential 20+ million sellers if they come out on this console.



Nintendo with the Switch:

AJNShelton on 29 April 2021
brute said:
SKMBlake said:

I'd like to add 2 things to the yes I didn't thought earlier:
- the Switch launched in China 2 years ago, we can def see the console reaching new hights there, unlike the PS2 (if I am not mistaken)
- the console market keeps growing, we're now 7.9 billion people on Earth, we were 6.5 billion during PS2's time, from now on successful consoles will sell way more than ever

There are more options to play nowadays then during the PS2 era. Additionally, consoles are becoming more and more reliable so people arent buying as many consoles nowadays (software sales support this).

Back then people would buy more than one PS2/X360 etc due to the defective issues.

What are the "more options" today than PS2 era ? Cause back then we had 4 home consoles, 3 handhelds, PC and mobile gaming. Now we have 2 home consoles, 1 hybrid, PC and mobile gaming.

And there is no correlation between software sales and reliability.

And do you really think PS2 reach 157 million on defective issues ?

I mean, every point you made is absolutely wrong, I don't know how it's even possible



numberwang on 29 April 2021

Rumors says there will be a Switch Pro with DLSS and all new chip set coming this year. If we count that as "Switch" it could pass PS2 sales.