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curl-6 said:

What makes Switch especially hard to predict in my view is the uncertainty regarding the length of its lifespan. Nintendo are very inconsistent when it comes to how long they support their systems for.

For this reason, while 140-150 million seems most likely to me, it's hard to nail down when I can see it being replaced anywhere from 2022 to 2024.

I think the early Splatoon 3 announcement was Nintendo's way of guaranteeing everyone there would be no Switch replacement in 2022.