Yup especially considering the switch is on lace to have the best year of any console. It's outpacing the best year of the DS. And more realistically:

2021: 29/106

2022: 24/130

2023: 15/145

2024: 6/151

2025+: 2/153

The legs are really important but switch has given us no reason to think it'll suddenly fall off a cliff. I even sorta cut it's legs shorter than I actually think.

It's not "wishful thinking" because I'm not "wishing" anything. I'm glad the Switch is doing well and I think Nintendo's been doing their finest work in many years on the system, but I don't have a dog in the fight like some people do (it's just an expensive electronic toy like every other console ever, hardly deserving of tribalistic sentiment) and I don't think it's somehow downplaying the Switch's success by thinking that it might not be the new #1 system ever. I know a lot of people on this forum really don't like (and seem to take it personally) that A) I'm not all gung-ho on the idea that the Switch will destroy every record ever, and B) that the Switch owes a lot of its success over the past 13 months to outside factors, but that's their problem, not mine.

With that being said, Splatoon 1 was released a bit over 21 months before the Switch was. Its final DLC, update, and Splatfest were in 2016. Nintendo were already gearing up for the next game in the series, after all. Splatoon 2 has had better support (it got DLC and regular Splatfests until 2019, some two years after launch, and continued patches up to this year; Splatfests still happen, but are far more sporadic), but it was released quite early in the Switch's life and there will have been around 4-½ to 5 years between it and Splatoon 3. I can see them supporting Splatoon 3 with DLC for two years (and regular updates past that), but that doesn't mean the next Nintendo system can't come out at or before that two-year mark, especially if (fingers crossed) it's backwards compatible with the Switch.

And a lot of the games we know about are coming up within the next year or so. Are there going to be more blockbuster-tier titles in 2022 besides Pokemon Legends and Splatoon 3? We don't know. Nintendo could surprise us with Mario Kart 9, Mario Odyssey 2, new 2D Mario, and who knows what else (I'd love to see F-Zero return). Or they could continue to do what they've done for generations and slowly draw down support, with only a handful of blockbuster-tier titles left and an ever-dwindling selection of lower-tier titles over the next couple of years.

And I've already commented on the Pro, but to summarize, given the impacts of second (or third) major hardware revisions on other systems (e.g., the DSi, New 3DS), it's reasonable to assume the Switch Pro will provide only a short-term boost to sales.

And I've made it clear that the way it's selling now is not due to normal sales growth.

As of the end of 2020, there were 9.11M units shipped to markets outside the main three, less than half of what it had sold in Japan or Europe by that point. Even if it doubles that, it won't be enough to top PS2 sales outside the main three regions (~25M units). The Switch will definitely have a solid lead over the PS2 in Japan, and possibly a lead over the PS2 in North America, but it's likely going to fall well short of the PS2 outside those two regions. Even if the Switch hits, say, 55M in North America and 30M in Japan, it would still need 73M from Europe and RoW, well over double what current sales are.

Europe and RoW are glaring weak points in the Switch's chances of beating the PS2 globally. Nintendo will have to find some way to keep sales going at current levels until at least the end of 2023, and probably need to actually grow them in that span. I really don't see any possible scenario where that could happen, especially considering that the Switch's sales levels over the past 13 months are not due to normal sales growth.

The DS Lite and PS3 Slim were the first major hardware revisions for those systems. The first major hardware revision will often do a lot. Later revisions (e.g., the DSi, Super Slim)... not so much. I explicitly stated this before, but I guess I wasn't clear enough.

The GB Color is an unusual and totally unique case. The OG Game Boy saw the height of its popularity in the early 90s, but continued selling at low levels for years afterward with no replacement in sight even though the NES and SNES had since been replaced. The GB Color didn't come out until nine years after the original mode, and the market (well, at least the U.S. one) responded to it as if it were a completely new system, even though it was technically a hardware revision. It also helps that it came out right at the dawn of Pokemania.

Also, revisions that are spec upgrades have (except for the aforementioned GBC) never had a massive impact on sales. The DSi and New 3DS both had a very short-term impact on sales of their respective platforms. The PS4 Pro was far less popular than the Slim, and even the two of them together (they came out two months apart) had a far more modest impact than the PS3 Slim did on PS3 sales. Supposedly, the One X represented a better share of XBO sales than the Pro did of PS4 sales, but even then there's nothing to indicate it was the more popular model (I mean, it was $150 more expensive than the base model). While it does appear to the sole factor in producing the XBO's best Q1 ever in the U.S. and decent YoY gains in the April-Aug. period, it's worth pointing out in regards to the latter that that's in comparison to an absolutely lousy 2017 (plus there was a temporary price cut for both the base model and X in June, which helped). Past Q1, 2018 was an otherwise unremarkable year for the XBO's sales.

Given these facts, I don't see any reason to assume that the Switch Pro will cause some massive surge in Switch sales lasting many months. I mean, what are some people really expecting it to do? Keep the Switch going at current levels in 2023 and beyond?

That's the thing. We don't know. Will Nintendo continuing engaging in their old habits, or will they go back to the NES days when it comes to long-term support? It's anybody's guess. But old habits die hard, and until Nintendo proves that they're going to continue to offer real, meaningful support, meaning top-tier A-list blockbusters in addition to smaller titles, for at least another 2-3 years, I don't have any reason to think they won't do to the Switch what they did to every other system they've released since 1996. But apparently people that want the Switch to be the new #1 think otherwise. I guess we'll see how things pan out over the next couple of years, but until then I stand by my belief that past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior.

It's not "wishful thinking" because I'm not "wishing" anything. I'm glad the Switch is doing well and I think Nintendo's been doing their finest work in many years on the system, but I don't have a dog in the fight like some people do (it's just an expensive electronic toy like every other console ever, hardly deserving of tribalistic sentiment) and I don't think it's somehow downplaying the Switch's success by thinking that it might not be the new #1 system ever. I know a lot of people on this forum really don't like (and seem to take it personally) that A) I'm not all gung-ho on the idea that the Switch will destroy every record ever, and B) that the Switch owes a lot of its success over the past 13 months to outside factors, but that's their problem, not mine.

With that being said, Splatoon 1 was released a bit over 21 months before the Switch was. Its final DLC, update, and Splatfest were in 2016. Nintendo were already gearing up for the next game in the series, after all. Splatoon 2 has had better support (it got DLC and regular Splatfests until 2019, some two years after launch, and continued patches up to this year; Splatfests still happen, but are far more sporadic), but it was released quite early in the Switch's life and there will have been around 4-½ to 5 years between it and Splatoon 3. I can see them supporting Splatoon 3 with DLC for two years (and regular updates past that), but that doesn't mean the next Nintendo system can't come out at or before that two-year mark, especially if (fingers crossed) it's backwards compatible with the Switch.

And a lot of the games we know about are coming up within the next year or so. Are there going to be more blockbuster-tier titles in 2022 besides Pokemon Legends and Splatoon 3? We don't know. Nintendo could surprise us with Mario Kart 9, Mario Odyssey 2, new 2D Mario, and who knows what else (I'd love to see F-Zero return). Or they could continue to do what they've done for generations and slowly draw down support, with only a handful of blockbuster-tier titles left and an ever-dwindling selection of lower-tier titles over the next couple of years.

And I've already commented on the Pro, but to summarize, given the impacts of second (or third) major hardware revisions on other systems (e.g., the DSi, New 3DS), it's reasonable to assume the Switch Pro will provide only a short-term boost to sales.

And I've made it clear that the way it's selling now is not due to normal sales growth.

As of the end of 2020, there were 9.11M units shipped to markets outside the main three, less than half of what it had sold in Japan or Europe by that point. Even if it doubles that, it won't be enough to top PS2 sales outside the main three regions (~25M units). The Switch will definitely have a solid lead over the PS2 in Japan, and possibly a lead over the PS2 in North America, but it's likely going to fall well short of the PS2 outside those two regions. Even if the Switch hits, say, 55M in North America and 30M in Japan, it would still need 73M from Europe and RoW, well over double what current sales are.

Europe and RoW are glaring weak points in the Switch's chances of beating the PS2 globally. Nintendo will have to find some way to keep sales going at current levels until at least the end of 2023, and probably need to actually grow them in that span. I really don't see any possible scenario where that could happen, especially considering that the Switch's sales levels over the past 13 months are not due to normal sales growth.

The DS Lite and PS3 Slim were the first major hardware revisions for those systems. The first major hardware revision will often do a lot. Later revisions (e.g., the DSi, Super Slim)... not so much. I explicitly stated this before, but I guess I wasn't clear enough.

The GB Color is an unusual and totally unique case. The OG Game Boy saw the height of its popularity in the early 90s, but continued selling at low levels for years afterward with no replacement in sight even though the NES and SNES had since been replaced. The GB Color didn't come out until nine years after the original mode, and the market (well, at least the U.S. one) responded to it as if it were a completely new system, even though it was technically a hardware revision. It also helps that it came out right at the dawn of Pokemania.

Also, revisions that are spec upgrades have (except for the aforementioned GBC) never had a massive impact on sales. The DSi and New 3DS both had a very short-term impact on sales of their respective platforms. The PS4 Pro was far less popular than the Slim, and even the two of them together (they came out two months apart) had a far more modest impact than the PS3 Slim did on PS3 sales. Supposedly, the One X represented a better share of XBO sales than the Pro did of PS4 sales, but even then there's nothing to indicate it was the more popular model (I mean, it was $150 more expensive than the base model). While it does appear to the sole factor in producing the XBO's best Q1 ever in the U.S. and decent YoY gains in the April-Aug. period, it's worth pointing out in regards to the latter that that's in comparison to an absolutely lousy 2017 (plus there was a temporary price cut for both the base model and X in June, which helped). Past Q1, 2018 was an otherwise unremarkable year for the XBO's sales.

Given these facts, I don't see any reason to assume that the Switch Pro will cause some massive surge in Switch sales lasting many months. I mean, what are some people really expecting it to do? Keep the Switch going at current levels in 2023 and beyond?

That's the thing. We don't know. Will Nintendo continuing engaging in their old habits, or will they go back to the NES days when it comes to long-term support? It's anybody's guess. But old habits die hard, and until Nintendo proves that they're going to continue to offer real, meaningful support, meaning top-tier A-list blockbusters in addition to smaller titles, for at least another 2-3 years, I don't have any reason to think they won't do to the Switch what they did to every other system they've released since 1996. But apparently people that want the Switch to be the new #1 think otherwise. I guess we'll see how things pan out over the next couple of years, but until then I stand by my belief that past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior.

Since 140 million is probably the minimum at this point it has a pretty decent shot right now.

2021: 25/102

2022: 19/121

2023: 12/133

2024: 5/138

2025+: 2/140

Even with this projection I'd say is really pessimistic it still gets to 140 so it just needs to do fairly better than that to beat the PS2 which isn't a massive ask.

It's a long post

I think that you hit the nail on the head.

If Nintendo ends up releasing a Switch Pro that has all the bells and whistles that we are hoping for such as DLSS and a significantly improved screen, then there is no question that 150M will be easily passed by the Switch and I even believe that 200M is realistic target.  That bigger question we need to ask as a community in this case, though, is whether this counts as a new console or is a refresh similar to what the New 3DS was.  Is backwards compatibility and a similar name and form factor enough to consider two pieces of hardware to be the same console generation even if the hardware capabilities are radically different?  The New3DS was not that much faster than the 3DS and a lot of people who had a 3DS did not re-purchase a New 3DS, but if the Switch Pro ends up using DLSS and is capable of 4K resolution then this puts it in new generation ballpark and a lot of people are going to want to have both models.

The question here comes down to a logistical one.  The momentum that the Switch currently has will land it somewhere close to 150M assuming that Nintendo does absolutely nothing in terms of hardware releases over the next 5 years, but this is highly unlikely in my opinion.  If Nintendo releases a vastly improved Switch pro in the next 1-2 years, then this will decimate the original Switch sales (maybe it peaks at 110-130M) but the new model is probably going to explode, especially if it is good as the rumors are suggesting right now.  In this case, it will come down to whether we consider the new Switch model a part of the original Switch generation.  In my opinion, if a ton of people are rebuying the Switch Pro for the radical enhancements it has then it doesn't seem fair to Microsoft and Sony in the console wars to continue adding up Switch sales.

Missed this one because I had my prior reply sitting unfinished since yesterday afternoon.

The Switch is not outselling the DS's best year, either globally or any specific region. And we need to look at things on a region-by-region basis.

In the U.S., the Switch did have a strong lead over the DS initially, but that's because the DS had a slow start. The Switch's lead over it has been declining since 2019, and has since turned into a deficit. The DS leads now in the U.S., and that lead will grow. There's no way in hell the Switch is going to be able to sell what it needs to sell to regain the lead over the next two years. The DS sold 19.75M units in the U.S. between 2011 and 2012. The Switch will need to keep going at 2020 levels for at least two more years just to avoid growing its deficit against the DS. Realistically, it's going to be running a deficit against the DS of over 3M units by the end of this year, and that's not including the DS's launch holiday (I'm just counting the DS's 2005-2009 in relation to the Switch's 2017-2021). That deficit is almost certainly going to grow even more next year, considering the DS sold 8.56M in 2011, nearly as much as the Switch did last year, probably more than it'll sell this year, and undoubtedly more than it'll sell next year (do you really expect three consecutive years of 8-9M units?). The only chance the Switch has of matching the DS in the U.S. is if its sales in 2023 and later are close to double what the DS's were in 2012 & later. That's not going to happen unless the Switch's successor doesn't come out until late 2025 or 2026.

In Japan, the DS peaked earlier than in the U.S., but what a peak it was. It sold 15.8M in the 2007-08 period, by far the best two-year period of any system ever in Japan. Like, nothing else was even close. The DS currently has a very significant lead over the Switch (and that's again not counting the DS's 2004 sales). The Switch will need to sell at least another 13.5M units in Japan just to tie the DS. That's actually possible, and the Switch's best odds of beating the DS in any one region is definitely Japan. But if it starts to slow down any next year, those odds diminish greatly.

In Europe, well, good God man, just look at the numbers. The Switch isn't even in the same league sales-wise as the DS was.

And if you think the Switch would be selling as well as it has over the past year without the pandemic, then you haven't been paying attention. Since at least this past summer, I've spent considerable time and effort in other threads going over this subject, with more than ample data to back up my arguments. I will not reiterate myself here, I will not argue over this subject anymore, and I'm just going to start ignoring people that simply object for the sake of objecting (i.e., not providing any backing evidence). If people can't deal with the facts, that's their problem, not mine.