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Norion said:

Since 140 million is probably the minimum at this point it has a pretty decent shot right now.

2021: 25/102

2022: 19/121

2023: 12/133

2024: 5/138

2025+: 2/140

Even with this projection I'd say is really pessimistic it still gets to 140 so it just needs to do fairly better than that to beat the PS2 which isn't a massive ask.

For fun let's compare to the DS.

Switch at 77m LTD at 3 years 9 months+ launch month. DS at 77.5m at 3 years 7 months (includes launch).

30.21

24.29

15.82

4.19

1.88