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Forums - Sales Discussion - March NPD 2021: Switch > 938k, PS5 > 473k , XBS > 234k

RolStoppable said:
mk7sx said:

Extrapolated ranges from ResetEra prediction results (Donny who runs the thread has actuals but cannot disclose them).

937k < Switch < 985k


473k < PS5


234k < XBS < 330k

(...)

With Switch down only 50-100k units year over year, it looks quite safe to expect the year 2021 to be even bigger than 2020. The USA is behaving similar to Japan.

Yes, expecting sales in the 10-12M range (after 9M in 2020).  High-end achievable if they supply a healthy amount of this upcoming revision (which I believe is an Ampere based device).  YoY the Switch is already up ~350K and after it loses the April battle to 2020, it will have favorable comparisons starting mid-May through August.  I expect May to be +0-10%, Jun/Jul to both be up >50%, and August to be +0-10% again.

If the Pro ends up being in short supply during the holidays, then next year holds up as another 9-11M year.  If its ample, next year drops to 7-9M.  



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Crazy how despite vgchartz estimating crazy sales numbers for the Switch every time, the Switch seems to always exceed their estimates expectations every time! Shows how crazy dominant the Switch is right now and will be for years to come.

However, the Switch may possibly deal with some shortages later in 2021 as a result of the semiconductor shortages thats been plaguing the tech industry since the pandemic started. Nintendo's president Shuntaro Furukawa recently stated that Nintendo is able to fulfill Switch demand for now but said that the Switch may deal with some shortages later in 2021 due to the ongoing semiconductor shortage. So that might prevent 2021 from overtopping 2020 if Nintendo can't meet demand due to shortages. We have to keep this possibility in mid when making our 2021 sales prediction. Because of that, I expect the Switch to pretty much remain flat YoY in 2021 and sell around 27-28M, but think switch could sell around 30M if Nintendo's able to meet demand. Really Nintendo's 2021 sales numbers will all depend on supply, not demand.



Everything saw big jumps from February. Even in terms of weekly averages (March being a 5-week month), all three systems looked to have grown somewhere in the 20-30% range month-over-month. That $1400 stimulus definitely did its work. March is rarely up from February in terms of weekly averages, and almost never anything this large. The only exceptions were the PS2 in 2001 (restocks), the GBA in 2003 (the SP and Pokemon Ruby & Sapphire), the Wii in 2008 (Smash), and all systems last March (the initial effects of the COVID bump, plus AC for the Switch).

And MS needs to get more Series X stock out. Hopefully they're easier to come across by time Halo Infinite comes out. At this rate, my prediction of a closer PS vs. Xbox race this gen won't pan out, though it's still very early and things could change as stock issues eventually get resolved and both systems get more games (and maybe some price cuts) under their belts.

I may update my charts, but it never feels right doing so without concrete numbers.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 28 April 2021

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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Shadow1980 said:

Everything saw big jumps from February. Even in terms of weekly averages (March being a 5-week month), all three systems looked to have grown somewhere in the 20-30% range month-over-month. That $1400 stimulus definitely did its work. March is rarely up from February in terms of weekly averages, and almost never anything this large. The only exceptions were the PS2 in 2001 (restocks), the GBA in 2003 (the SP and Pokemon Ruby & Sapphire), the Wii in 2008 (Smash), and all systems last March (the initial effects of the COVID bump, plus AC for the Switch).

And MS needs to get more Series X stock out. Hopefully they're easier to come across by time Halo Infinite comes out. At this rate, my prediction of a closer PS vs. Xbox race this gen won't pan out, though it's still very early and things could change as stock issues eventually get resolved and both systems get more games (and maybe some price cuts) under their belts.

I may update my charts, but it never feels right doing so without concrete numbers.

I don’t the stimulus check was really the reaason sales went up as high as they did. (Though they helped a bit)

Like everyone knows about the fact that all 3 currently sell everything they ship (Nintendo more so the OG model as I never see it at retail), and like you said 5week that avg jumped up from feb 4week by roughly 25-30%. Mar10 sales/MH Rise limited edition and release and of course the end of FY that probably made Nintendo ship out lot for March which demand still hasn’t been settled

Also I’m on the “stop using past trends” ship as NSW is literally doing its own thing which has never been seen before and add to the fact that this is Nintendo first system that is solely focused on instead of splitting resources like in the pasr

...

....



tbone51 said:

I don’t the stimulus check was really the reaason sales went up as high as they did. (Though they helped a bit)

Like everyone knows about the fact that all 3 currently sell everything they ship (Nintendo more so the OG model as I never see it at retail), and like you said 5week that avg jumped up from feb 4week by roughly 25-30%. Mar10 sales/MH Rise limited edition and release and of course the end of FY that probably made Nintendo ship out lot for March which demand still hasn’t been settled

Sure, all three companies could have had huge restocks for the U.S. market in March, which could be the primary factor.We did see Sony increase stock for the PS5 in March in Japan as well, and the PS2's big restock in March 2001 helped a lot, too. And while Monster Hunter isn't a system-seller in the U.S., limited edition consoles are, so that could have contributed for the Switch.

Still, that sort of increase had to have been at least aided by the stimulus checks. We know windfalls like that help, because February is almost always the best non-holiday month of the year in the U.S. (barring some big system-seller or price cut released later in the year) due to tax returns, plus last April saw huge gains for all extant platforms. The Big Three may have dumped a bunch of stock into the U.S. market specifically to take advantage of the stimulus for all we know (though the Switch isn't exactly hurting for stock, and systems are readily available despite its current popularity, unlike the PS5 & XBS). If we still got sales data for the PS4 & XBO it could provide further clarification, but unfortunately the last time we got any numbers for those systems was in October.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

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sorry for being extremely late had a lot of work to do, gonna be free for the next months!
Thread update incoming



If someone can help me out here, - I know the PlayStation sells more than MS at times when there are no shortages, but with all the consoles currently selling out, why isn't MS able to manufacture as many consoles as Sony can? Any answers to this question would be greatly appreciated.



Xbox 360 and Xbox One

Gamertag:  GamertagOz70

Ryng said:

Thread update incoming

Have there been any updates as of late? I would definitely like to update my charts with more concrete numbers



Also whats with the discrepancy between the NPD estimates and VgChartz numbers? VgChartz lists March sales at 784k, have they already been adjusted?



CheddarPlease said:

Also whats with the discrepancy between the NPD estimates and VgChartz numbers? VgChartz lists March sales at 784k, have they already been adjusted?

We have adjusted our numbers, but also March for VGChartz is 4 weeks, while it is 5 weeks for NPD. The number of weeks in each month is automatically set, so we have no way of changing them. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

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