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Forums - Sales Discussion - All Rise for another BOLD Prediction: MH Rise 7mil+ in Japan


MH will be close to

4mil 4 10.00%
4.5mil 2 5.00%
5mil 5 12.50%
5.5mil 9 22.50%
6mil 11 27.50%
6.5mil 4 10.00%
7mil 5 12.50%

At first it doesn’t seem bold but let’s make things clear here. Only game to surpass 5mil that’s a non Nintendo game was MHP3 on psp and that was when MH peak.

MH4 on 3ds which was still a popular console manage to do 4.1mil 5mil seems like a good target, 6mil for you optimistic A-Whole$. 

I would of done 6mil but Rol would mock me and say I’m safe again so I went with the impossible 7mil. Mind you only 3 games ever reach a milestones. And I’m going for a third party to be the 4th

Ill be happy with 6mil but F it. Let’s go with lucky number 7

your thoughts 

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I say around 4.5 million.

My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

5.5 million max.

6 for me seems like an inevitability with the game being sold out everywhere and the digital version selling really well. What is more interesting in my eyes is the question how well it will sell in places like east and south-east asia as well es europe.

Do you mean 7 million physically or physical + digital ?

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IcaroRibeiro said:

Do you mean 7 million physically or physical + digital ?

Ship+digital so sales directly from capcom. 7mil physical would mean 10mil lifetime. ACNH hit 7mil retail this year

tbone51 said:

Ship+digital so sales directly from capcom. 7mil physical would mean 10mil lifetime. ACNH hit 7mil retail this year

And THAT would be a crazy bold prediction 

IDK, I still see 7 million shipments as something in the realm of possibilities. It's  unlike the Switch 200 million prediction I needed to challenge maths to make my shot work :p 

Anyway I'm IN. MH Rise will sell 7 million lifetime in Japan 

Wow it took you a while to get around to this thread. You made this prediction soon after it was announced I think.
It is indeed bold, but I think it has a legitimate chance assuming that it gets an expansion like MH World got Iceborne. Of course that didn't put World anywhere near 7 mil in Japan, but this is the Switch after all.

My intuition is still telling me that 5.5 or 6 mil seems more likely, but this is one time that I'm tempted to trust in your prophectic powers.

Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

Don't know if this is really "that" bold tbh because of the situation with the 3DS games as many people would wait for the second version of the games and the releases were more frequent as well so legs were often cut off by Capcom themselves. MH4 for example when both versions are combined equal like 8m sales then a year later Generations/Cross was released, Rise likely isn't going to have an enhanced version like the 3DS games or another game arrive after it (at least in the short term) it's more likely going to be like World where DLC and expansions are added meaning to get the new content the base game has to be bought.

7m in the long run wouldn't be as much of a surprise tbh as the series has been pushing 4-5m on individual releases, 7-8m if we combine iterations and Rise has a platform that accommodates both portable and home which for MH have mainly been two separate entities.

I expected more from you on this TBone.

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