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Forums - Sales - Danial Ahmad - PS5 sold 4,5m by Dec 31st 2020. + XSX/S ~3,1-3,3m

Sogreblute on 03 February 2021
RolStoppable said:

Looks like Sony is missing their targets. PS5 stock has been abysmal during the first half of January, so it will be difficult to ship 3m+ during the current quarter to outdo the PS4 during the same timeframe.

The PS4 was projected to ship 9m this fiscal year, but is only at ~5m through the first three quarters. This will be a clear miss that will even make it feasible that the PS4 falls short of 120m lifetime.

EDIT: 4.8m for the PS4 this fiscal year so far. This in turn means 6.2m shipped during calendar year 2020, a decline of more than 50% year over year. 120m lifetime aren't a sure thing anymore, not at this rate of decline.

It should be noted that Sony for their next fiscal are projecting 14.8 million PS5's. Nothing on PS4 obviously, but I predict no more than 3 million.



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PotentHerbs on 03 February 2021

PS4 definitely isn't hitting 130 Million lifetime lol, Sony has left it out to die without any price cuts, it might not even reach 120 Million at this rate. Although very good numbers overall for SIE.

PS5 is tracking in line with the PS4 despite a higher price point and supply issues. PS Plus subscriptions keep on growing, a total of 47.4 Million, with 87% of PS5 owners being subscribed. 18.4 Million first party games were sold in Q3 with Miles Morales accounting for 4.1 Million. I think Sony also set an industry record in terms of revenue with 23+ Billion for 2020. Sony is expecting 10+ Billion profit by the end of their fiscal year in March with Playstation accounting for 3+ Billion.

Another interesting tidbit is that Sony is looking to invest more in their entertainment divisions then they have in the past couple of years.

Last edited by PotentHerbs - on 03 February 2021

PotentHerbs on 03 February 2021
Sogreblute said:
RolStoppable said:

Looks like Sony is missing their targets. PS5 stock has been abysmal during the first half of January, so it will be difficult to ship 3m+ during the current quarter to outdo the PS4 during the same timeframe.

The PS4 was projected to ship 9m this fiscal year, but is only at ~5m through the first three quarters. This will be a clear miss that will even make it feasible that the PS4 falls short of 120m lifetime.

EDIT: 4.8m for the PS4 this fiscal year so far. This in turn means 6.2m shipped during calendar year 2020, a decline of more than 50% year over year. 120m lifetime aren't a sure thing anymore, not at this rate of decline.

It should be noted that Sony for their next fiscal are projecting 14.8 million PS5's. Nothing on PS4 obviously, but I predict no more than 3 million.

I believe that is the bare minimum they are aiming to ship. 



kazuyamishima on 03 February 2021

So almost 300 million PS4 games sold in calendar year 2020.

Is that a new record for a calendar year ??



Farsala on 03 February 2021
RolStoppable said:
Signalstar said:

Switch will definitely win. PS4 sales collapsed in 2020 while Switch sales skyrocketed.

Indeed, a very common expectation has been finally turned on its head during 2020: Switch was supposed to be the console with an early peak and a quick decline which would in turn make the PS4 the winner eventually. Instead Switch's lead grew even more in year 4 while the PS4's supposed better legs broke away even faster than the most pessimistic predictions.

Switch is set to beat the PS4 for the fifth consecutive year in a launch-aligned comparison with its 2021 sales, so then the PS4 would have to make up a 15m+ deficit with only a good 20m of its own lifetime sales left to go. That's why virtually all eyes have turned to the DS and PS2 by now, because all other consoles will be passed by Switch for sure.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9151486

@bold Nah, I am right on the money with the legs expectations. Everyone else though... Even you designated my prediction as troll.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9153567

This was in May 2020, when things were looking pretty clear too.

I have held this prediction for years, I just need to dig for it in one of Sony's Quarter shipments threads.



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Doctor_MG on 03 February 2021

Xbox Series X/S at 3.1-3.3M is honestly more along the lines of what I initially expected (3.5). They still need to increase production even more so than Sony does if they would like to get better market share. It is entirely possible some people interested in a PS5 would buy a Series X if it was "the one available". But, alas, MS is limited by the same thing Sony is, so this wont happen.

Sony "only" matching PS4 sales is disappointing by expectations from others, but fantastic by an actual metric that isn't hype. PS4 had great launch numbers, PS5 is continuing that success. Though, I may have to change my prediction this year from above 16M to around 15M. I'm still hanging on to it though until more information comes through.



Nautilus on 03 February 2021

Ps5 and Xbox X numbers are great overall.

It's just the PS4 numbers that are dissapointing so far. But it seems that Sony produced less of them, most likely to force people into adopting the PS5. Either way, they shoudl have kept producing more PS4, since not everyone will be able to shell out 500 dollars for their 9th gen system.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Jranation on 03 February 2021
Farsala said:
RolStoppable said:

Indeed, a very common expectation has been finally turned on its head during 2020: Switch was supposed to be the console with an early peak and a quick decline which would in turn make the PS4 the winner eventually. Instead Switch's lead grew even more in year 4 while the PS4's supposed better legs broke away even faster than the most pessimistic predictions.

Switch is set to beat the PS4 for the fifth consecutive year in a launch-aligned comparison with its 2021 sales, so then the PS4 would have to make up a 15m+ deficit with only a good 20m of its own lifetime sales left to go. That's why virtually all eyes have turned to the DS and PS2 by now, because all other consoles will be passed by Switch for sure.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9151486

@bold Nah, I am right on the money with the legs expectations. Everyone else though... Even you designated my prediction as troll.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9153567

This was in May 2020, when things were looking pretty clear too.

I have held this prediction for years, I just need to dig for it in one of Sony's Quarter shipments threads.

I voted less than 120mil probably as a troll too but that fact it might actually happen......



Pocky Lover Boy! 

thismeintiel on 03 February 2021

It's a shame Sony didn't push PS4 late in it's life like they did the PS2. A $199 price point and continuing shipments and it could have easily reached 130M. But, I guess to ensure PS5 has a good future, they are using profits from PS4 to cover PS5 HW losses, as well as slowly getting manufacturers shifted from making PS4s to PS5s. I understand it, especially since Covid is probably causing quite a bit of it, but still a shame to see it not sell to its full potential.



 

NoCtiS_NoX on 04 February 2021

One thing to point out on the PS4 debacle it seems PS4 is sold out. I mean in my country I am seeing more of Switch stocks than PS4 which is not normal. There's a lot of Deals and promotions for PS4 and when I went to my usual stores I cannot see any PS4 in stocks. The new deal now doesn't include PS4 units for the Chinese new year, Those deals was a lot last year. It's either PS4 is on it's way out or Sony is preparing for one last push by releasing the super slim with a price cut or they prioritize PS5 to be produced.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/where-to-buy-playstation-4-sold-out/