Agente42 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
You have changed the argument. I am not talking about the "Game Industry". I am talking about console gaming. The NES saved console gaming. We already agree that the NES revived console gaming in North America. European gaming in the early-mid 80s was being developed on computers. They were not developing any significant console worth mentioning. That just leaves Japan. I do think another company, like Sega, could have made a decently successful system in Japan, but it would mostly have just stayed in Japan. Nintendo had to do amazing things to revive console gaming in North America. And console gaming never became that big in Europe until Sony entered the market, which is a result of their temporary partnering with Nintendo on the Nintendo Playstation. Also console gaming, even in Japan, would be much smaller in Japan without the Famicom. The kinds of successes that the Famicom was having in Japan were amazing in their own right, before the rest of the world even enters the picture. The SMS could succeed in Brazil where there wasn't a significant movement in computer gaming, but not in North America or Europe. In a world without the NES, computer gaming becomes the dominant platform instead of console gaming. This is important, because the console market is naturally much bigger than the computer game market. The C64 succeeded in the absence of consoles and sold about 16m units. The NES sold about 4 times that amount a few years later. That indicates that the console market is about 4 times larger than it would have been with just computer gaming alone. Consoles are cheaper and more convenient than computers and that naturally leads to a much bigger gaming market. So yes, Nintendo and the NES did save console gaming. In a world without the NES, there is no reason to believe that people would have kept trying to make consoles when computer gaming had already proven to be successful. The PC would have become the standard instead of the console. And the most likely result is that the "Game Industry" would be about 1/4 of its current size. Gaming would still be a decent sized industry, but still much smaller than what it actually did become because of the NES. |
Yeah... the console market, in US, become other thing. Other scale, nothing you can measure and think. Only crazy dreamings without data or history to backup this premise. |
Only we actually do have data and history. The US had a few years where the console market died. During those years the home computer market filled in the void, especially the C64. The C64 sold about 1/4 of what the NES sold a few years later. Sure, I am speculating, but my speculation is based on what actually did happen.
There are also examples, from other media, that show what happens when a successful medium crashes. During the 30's and 40's, comic books were the most popular medium in the US, more than movies, TV, radio, anything. It started out as a superhero medium, but gradually it started branching out to other genres, especially as kids grew up and wanted more mature content. In the 50's, the government imposed heavy regulation on comic books via the Comics Code Authority (because of the mature content). The comic book market tanked. It did recover somewhat in the 60's with Marvel and Stan Lee, but it was never nearly as popular as it was before the government regulation, and the main genre has always been superheroes since the 60's. Contrast this with comics in Japan. They never had anything that seriously tanked their market. The result is they have a very robust manga market that represents a variety of genres. There actually can be key moments in the history of a medium that determine its fate permanently.
This idea that consoles would still exist, no matter what, is speculation that is not based on data. The easiest way to answer the "what would have happened" question is to ask "what actually did happen". In the absence of console gaming, computer gaming became the new norm. Consoles were seen as a fad, much like motion controls are seen today. Computer gaming was doing just fine. Why wouldn't it become the permanent standard?
The real question is, "why do consoles have to exist?" In a world without the NES, why would they have to exist. Someone please make an argument more compelling than "it has to be this way", or "consoles totally wouldn't exist, yeah right". Gaming would still exist, but it would find another medium. Outside of Japan, most gaming in the 80's was being developed for a computer. In Germany during the 80s, they were actually building a new board game market. Gaming would still exist. Why would it always have to be on consoles, when the console market appeared so unreliable?