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Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition: FINAL RESULTS!

Adjustments were recently made in Europe in light of the news of Nintendo having their biggest Black Friday ever in Europe.
NPD was also delayed to Monday, which should also be the same day Week 47 numbers come in, so I will withhold the adjustments and updates to the comparisons until then.

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The November NPD results are out and with them come adjustments!

The PS4 and Xbox One remain unchanged, therefore, no adjustments to them.

All three of the main systems have been adjusted down overall AND in the US.

Nintendo Switch:
The hybrid sees its worldwide Black Friday total taken down from a little over 1.7 to just under 1.5 million units. Still good enough for its 3rd best Black Friday total behind 2019 and 2020, so not even the likes of Pokemon BD/SP could get it up over 2020 like it was before adjustments, which is a shame, but that's what happens when you're unable to produce more shipments to catch up with demand after you expected hardware to be down from last year in the first place. Interestingly enough, the adjustments have it so that the Switch actually sold more in Europe than the US during Black Friday. Now we know where more of the shipments are going.
Furthermore, despite the downward adjustments, the Switch remains up YoY in the US over this point last year. (Next week will change that obviously, since that's when we get LAST year's Black Friday - Remember, 2020 was a 53 week year.) This is shaping up to be an interesting month of December for the hybrid.

Xbox Series:
Microsoft's pair of next gen systems were adjusted down by around 200k worldwide. Despite this, it is still well on pace to surpass the Xbox One's first year totals. In fact, it has already done so in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World! The US looks like it could come down to the last week. But with the massive advantage it will have in the other 3 regions, it should finish comfortably ahead in the Worldwide totals as well. So a big win for Microsoft in this regard.

PlayStation 5:
...Yikes. It would seem that out of the Big Three, Sony is the one who has been hit the worst by the shortages. Doing just over 400k, which doesn't even top the week before Black Friday of LAST YEAR. There's a strong chance that when the next numbers come in, it'll fall behind the PS4's 2014 totals, making the PS5's final 4 weeks an uphill battle. Where it will in all likelihood fall short. Even with the shortages in mind, this is a pretty disappointing result for the PS5 in my opinion. This tells me that Sony themselves wasn't expecting the PS5 to match the PS4 in its first year. Even with Microsoft being effected by the shortages, they still expected the Xbox Series to perform better than the Xbox One, and thus far, that has been the case. Not exactly an ideal position for the PS5 to be in. It will still be ahead of the Xbox Series overall. But Microsoft is definitely closing the gap.

Currently in the US PS5 is still ahead of X|S.  3.40m vs. 3.05m respectively.  Given that Series S is readily available and PS5 is not, I think this year is going to end up as a win for XBox in the US.  It will be close though.

DISCLAIMER: Pending adjustments - Liable to change:

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Duh duh duh duh duhhhh!
Duh duh duh duhhhhhh!


No? Anyone? (sigh) fine...

Week 48 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions

PlayStation 5: Down in all regions

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Down in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in Japan; Down in the United States, Europe, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.


We are now in the final month of the year, the Big One. December! And unfortunately, we're off to a bad start since this week last year and in 2014 was Black Friday week. As a result, all 5 systems in almost every region is down, with the sole exception being the Nintendo Switch in Japan. Let's start with the Switch while I'm on that system.

Nintendo Switch:
With just under 1.2 million units sold this week, the Switch was able to leap into the 21 million mark for 2021, whereas last year, it leaped into the 22 million mark. As it stands, the Switch trails last year by just over 1.2 million units. With this week's numbers, the Switch joins some exclusive company. It is now just the 2nd system in history to have yearly sales over 20 million units at least 3 times. The other system; the DS, which did it 5 times. By region, the Switch is just shy of 7 million in the US; just under 5.5 million in Europe; closing in on 5 million in Japan; And just shy of 4 million in the Rest of the World;

PlayStation 5:
Sony's new console took quite a beating this week compared to the PS4's Black Friday in 2014. So much so that it is now TRAILING the PS4 in 2014. But funny enough, it's still ahead in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; The only region where the PS5 is down is in the US, but it is down by quite a bit. So much so that the deficit in that one region alone outweighs the advantage it has in the other three. In all likelihood, the PS5 will come up short against the PS4's first year.

Xbox Series:
Microsoft's new console also took a butt-kicking compared to the Xbox One's Black Friday in 2014. But it does little to slow down the inevitable victory for the Series S/X, which only needs to sell another 353,098 units to win in the overall Global comparison. Barring any severe shortages, it should do so comfortably next week. The Series S/X has also already outsold the Xbox One in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World. The only comparison that is up for grabs is the US comparison, with the Series S/X maintaining a slim lead of just 117k and needing to sell 1,151,418 units to top the Xbox One US in 2014. Just how readily available is the Series S? And will it be enough to bring home a clean sweep for the Xbox Series in all regions? We shall see.

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With 4 weeks to go, it's projection time!

But with a different kind of take. Instead of comparing the sales point of last year to its final yearly totals, I'm going to be taking the average weekly baseline of the Worldwide totals to see what the final worldwide projection is. Then, I am going to see what how the percentages of the worldwide total is broken up into the 4 regions. Finally, apply those percentages to the projected worldwide total and that should give us a rough estimate of the projected regional totals.

I'll use the PS4 as an example:


Current PS4 Worldwide Total: 2,087,666

PS4 Weekly Average: 43,493.04167

Percentages: US - 27.20248354%; Europe - 53.22992279%; Japan - 4.09663232%; ROTW - 15.47096135%


Projected Final PS4 Worldwide Total: 2,261,638

Projected Final PS4 US Total: 615,222

Projected Final PS4 Europe Total: 1,203,868

Projected Final PS4 Japan Total: 92,651

Projected Final PS4 ROTW Total: 349,897

PlayStation 5 Final Projections


Current PS5 Worldwide Total: 11,265,175

PS4 Weekly Average: 234,691.1458

Percentages: US - 31.31329074%; Europe - 41.9425708%; Japan - 8.20328135%; ROTW - 18.54084711%


Projected Final PS5 Worldwide Total: 12,203,939

Projected Final PS5 US Total: 3,821,455

Projected Final PS5 Europe Total: 5,118,646

Projected Final PS5 Japan Total: 1,001,124

Projected Final PS4 ROTW Total: 2,262,714

Xbox One Final Projections


Current Xbox One Worldwide Total: 775,854

Xbox One Weekly Average: 16,163.625

Percentages: US - 60.85715392%; Europe - 21.78219098%; Japan - N/A; ROTW - 17.33805587%


Projected Final Xbox One Worldwide Total: 840,509

Projected Final Xbox One US Total: 511,431

Projected Final Xbox One Europe Total: 183,084

Projected Final Xbox One Japan Total: 253

Projected Final Xbox One ROTW Total: 145,741

Xbox Series Final Projections


Current Xbox Series Worldwide Total: 7,207,670

Xbox Series Weekly Average: 150,159,7917

Percentages: US - 45.15137347%; Europe - 32.65468591%; Japan - 1.28934871%; ROTW - 20.90459191%


Projected Final Xbox Series Worldwide Total: 7,808,309

Projected Final Xbox Series US Total: 3,525,559

Projected Final Xbox Series Europe Total: 2,549,779

Projected Final Xbox Series Japan Total: 100,676

Projected Final Xbox Series ROTW Total: 1,632,295

Nintendo Switch Final Projections


Current Nintendo Switch Worldwide Total: 21,064,067

Nintendo Switch Weekly Average: 438,834.7292

Percentages: US - 33.19024289%; Europe - 25.73439877%; Japan - 22.36220574%; ROTW - 18.71315259%


Projected Final NS Worldwide Total: 22,819,406

Projected Final NS US Total: 7,573,816

Projected Final NS Europe Total: 5,872,437

Projected Final NS Japan Total: 5,102,923

Projected Final NS ROTW Total: 4,270,230