My favorite thread on this website!

Definitely think the Switch will lose its lead in 2021 against 2020 briefly right before Switch OLED releases. Even without the new model, I figured it would lose its lead in September and then possibly regain it in October due to a stronger Sept 2020 and stronger Oct 2021. Still up in the air if 2021 wins, but the holidays definitely have to be better this year than last year in order for Nintendo to meet their forecast.

Shouldn't be too hard for October-December to be better considering we have a new Switch model, Metroid Dread, Mario Party, BDSP and Advance Wars VS Pikmin and Age of Calamity.

Week 25 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in Europe and the Rest of the World; Down in the United States and Japan; Down overall.

Week 26 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in Europe and the Rest of the World; Down in the United States and Japan; Down overall.

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We are officially at the halfway point of this year's Hardware Battle!

(Da-da-da-daa, Daa, Daa, Da, da-daaaaaa!)

As such, let's review what the story looks like for all 5 systems in this comparison:

PlayStation 4: The only region where it's really putting up a fight is the US region. It is on a 16 week winning streak in that region and continues to slowly chip away at its deficit and I'd say there's a good-likely chance that the PS4 might come out on top over the PS3 in the United States. Everywhere else, including worldwide? ...Not so much.

PlayStation 5: At the halfway point, the PS5 has a healthy lead over the PS4 worldwide (539k). That is largely do to building very sizable leads in Europe (307k) and the Rest of the World (158k). It has a rather slim lead in the United States (85k) given the size of that region. And it is actually down very slightly in Japan (-11k) although it is currently on a 13 week winning streak and is on the verge of taking the lead over the PS4. So it's only a matter of time before the PS5 is completely ahead and it's hard to foresee a scenario where the PS5 doesn't come out on top.

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Xbox One: Unlike the PS4, where it has one region going for it. The Xbox One has absolutely nothing going for it in its battle with its predecessor, the 360. It has not gotten a single win win in any region or worldwide and this is the 5th week in a row where the baseline has declined. This is about as one-sided as it gets. At this point, it's just about seeing how far it will drop.

Xbox Series: At the halfway point, the Xbox Series has officially crossed the magic mark of being 1 million units ahead of its predecessor. It's on a 15 week winning streak worldwide. It has won all but 2 weeks in the US region; All but 1 week in Europe; And thanks to the latest surge in Japan, it is quickly approaching the point where it will beat the Xbox One in Japan before it even launches over there. And it has not lost a single week in the Rest of the World region. This is shaping like a big win for Microsoft and that they are well on their way from putting the disappointment of the Xbox One behind them.

Nintendo Switch: By far the most anticipated match-up of this thread. It is the one that is putting up the biggest numbers, and yet it is the absolutely closest comparison. Following further downward adjustments for 2021, just 58k separates this year and last year on the worldwide comparison. And that is due to the fact that despite 2021 being ahead in the US, Japan, and the Rest of the World; It is FAR behind in Europe.

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I think the most recent week of data was considered to be part of July, since it ends in July. I noticed that you still had it part of June on the first post.

I'm starting to wonder if Series X is going to reclaim America. One thing is for certain, the gap is definitely shrinking from last gen just about everywhere.

This really is a great thread!  Here are some of my thoughts on what has transpired so far.

Switch '20 vs. '21
Switch is only down in Europe.  Why is that?  When you look at the data for Europe, we see that '21 lost major ground due to the release of Animal Crossing in '20.  Europe had more stock on the shelves when Animal Crossing released compared to other regions, so it didn't get short supplied nearly as quickly.  As a result '20 made the biggest gains on '21 in Europe.  Now that we are past the biggest part of the Animal Crossing juggernaut, '20 has nothing left to really compare to '21.  This year's Switch sales will pull ahead of '20, although we many not really see that until the OLED model releases.

PS3 2014 vs. PS4 2021
This is the comparison that I find the most interesting.  We know that PS3 sales were backloaded, so we expect PS3 to be ahead here.  But do we really expect PS3 to be ahead by this much?  PS4 legs really seem to be disappearing, but let's break it down by region:

PS3 2014 & PS4 2021 comparison (first 6 months)

Look at the regions that have the biggest % change: Japan and RoW.  They are not buying PS4 at all.  These are also the regions where the Switch is clearly dominating the whole market by a huge margin.  People are not buying PS4, because they are getting Switch instead.

People say that Playstation is not competing with Switch, but the data says otherwise.  It just didn't say it the moment the Switch released.  The impact doesn't happen instantaneously, because the average person does not buy a new system every year.  Instead people buy a new system every 6-7 years if they own one current system, or about every 3 years if they own two.  In the end though, Switch is eating into the PS4's legs very seriously in Japan and RoW.

I point this out, because I think this also is an indication of the PS5's fate, especially in Japan and RoW.  I expect PS5 to continue to sell well for the rest of the year in every region.  However, I don't expect PS5 to do nearly as well as PS4 in lifetime sales, especially in Japan and RoW.  These regions are dramatically going over to the Switch, and I don't expect them to switch back to Playstation.  Instead I expect PS5 sales to peak either this near or '22 in these regions.  Switch is most definitely competing with Playstation, but you have to look carefully to see it.

Week 27 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down in the United States; Up overall.

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It is Week 27 and the First Week of July! We are officially in the 2nd Half of the Year!!

The story remains the same for the PlayStation and Xbox consoles.

The Switch managed to get a win this week, snapping a 5 week losing streak, though I have a feeling that will change one way or the other depending on adjustments.

@PAOerfulone Shouldn't the most recent week of data be considered the second week of July? The prior week should be considered the first week of July because that week ends in July.

Nice to see the Switch up a bit, but I do definitely see it losing to 2020 before the Switch OLED releases. Even without it, I felt that the Switch would lose the lead by around the time September rolls around. There's nothing releasing on Switch this September to counter the 500,000 it sold last year when 3D All-Stars released.

No, because in the prior week the majority of the days were in June, 4 days to be exact, while the remaining 3 days were in July. Thus, since the majority of the days were in June, it counts as a June week. If the week ended on July 4th, meaning the majority of days were in July, THEN it’d be a July week, but that’s not the case.