PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition: FINAL RESULTS!

[The_Liquid_Laser]

This really is a great thread!  Here are some of my thoughts on what has transpired so far.

Switch '20 vs. '21
Switch is only down in Europe.  Why is that?  When you look at the data for Europe, we see that '21 lost major ground due to the release of Animal Crossing in '20.  Europe had more stock on the shelves when Animal Crossing released compared to other regions, so it didn't get short supplied nearly as quickly.  As a result '20 made the biggest gains on '21 in Europe.  Now that we are past the biggest part of the Animal Crossing juggernaut, '20 has nothing left to really compare to '21.  This year's Switch sales will pull ahead of '20, although we many not really see that until the OLED model releases.

PS3 2014 vs. PS4 2021
This is the comparison that I find the most interesting.  We know that PS3 sales were backloaded, so we expect PS3 to be ahead here.  But do we really expect PS3 to be ahead by this much?  PS4 legs really seem to be disappearing, but let's break it down by region:

PS3 2014 & PS4 2021 comparison (first 6 months)

	PS3	PS4	net change	% change
US	325,180	314,090	-11,090	-3%
Europe	797,809	598,430	-199,379	-25%
Japan	297,518	63,173	-234,345	-79%
RoW	527,052	168,749	-358,303	-68%

Look at the regions that have the biggest % change: Japan and RoW.  They are not buying PS4 at all.  These are also the regions where the Switch is clearly dominating the whole market by a huge margin.  People are not buying PS4, because they are getting Switch instead.

People say that Playstation is not competing with Switch, but the data says otherwise.  It just didn't say it the moment the Switch released.  The impact doesn't happen instantaneously, because the average person does not buy a new system every year.  Instead people buy a new system every 6-7 years if they own one current system, or about every 3 years if they own two.  In the end though, Switch is eating into the PS4's legs very seriously in Japan and RoW.

I point this out, because I think this also is an indication of the PS5's fate, especially in Japan and RoW.  I expect PS5 to continue to sell well for the rest of the year in every region.  However, I don't expect PS5 to do nearly as well as PS4 in lifetime sales, especially in Japan and RoW.  These regions are dramatically going over to the Switch, and I don't expect them to switch back to Playstation.  Instead I expect PS5 sales to peak either this near or '22 in these regions.  Switch is most definitely competing with Playstation, but you have to look carefully to see it.