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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ring Fit Adventure shipped 5.84m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Ring Fit Adventure shipped 5.84m by September 30th. Lifetimes sales expectations?

Less than 8 million 92 16.17%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 66 11.60%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 63 11.07%
 
10.0 - 12.4 million 167 29.35%
 
12.5 - 14.9 million 50 8.79%
 
15.0 - 17.4 million 49 8.61%
 
17.5 - 19.9 million 11 1.93%
 
20.0 - 22.4 million 28 4.92%
 
22.5 - 25.0 million 6 1.05%
 
More than 25 million 37 6.50%
 
Total:569

Quite a few people in here are trolling, or at least I hope so.

Ring Fit Adventure was affected by COVID-19, but not in the way that most people believe. There was a notable negative impact on production capacities during the January to March period when Chinese factories were put on hold, so RFA's LTD sales are currently lower than they could have been.

It doesn't require a pandemic for a fitness game to sell, because too many people are out of shape on a regular basis and at the same time there are many fatties who are too ashamed to exercise outdoors or go to a gym. So home exercise will always be in demand.

This holiday quarter should bring RFA's LTD to ~8m, so afterwards is merely a matter if one believes that Switch sales on the whole will fall off a cliff or not. Those who do picked any of the ranges below 15m in the poll. Looking at you, @tbone51 



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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I totally agree with Rol, this from the same team that made Wii Fit - anything below 20 million lifetime, would be an underperformance from my POV

  • Switch will end up being more successful than the Wii
  • Especially in Japan and Asia, Switch already outsold the Wii
  • China had the official launch of Ring Fit Adventure in September of this year
  • Once it launched in China WW problems with the stock has been normalized but not resolved
  • We still don't know exactly where demand is for Ring Fit, because it has never satisfied since launching
  • In Taiwan and South Korea, the game has never really existed the Top 5 since Spring 2019
  • The game is currently #1 & #11 on Amazon.co.jp, so starting Week 50 we would actually see what sales will look like for the game during the holiday period
  • Ring Fit is a far better "gamification" of exercise than anything on the Wii


I saw one in my local Walmart on Friday. Almost bought it but it's not my type of game. I just know it's in demand so I felt like I kinda had to.



Twitter: @d21lewis

RolStoppable said:

Quite a few people in here are trolling, or at least I hope so.

Ring Fit Adventure was affected by COVID-19, but not in the way that most people believe. There was a notable negative impact on production capacities during the January to March period when Chinese factories were put on hold, so RFA's LTD sales are currently lower than they could have been.

It doesn't require a pandemic for a fitness game to sell, because too many people are out of shape on a regular basis and at the same time there are many fatties who are too ashamed to exercise outdoors or go to a gym. So home exercise will always be in demand.

This holiday quarter should bring RFA's LTD to ~8m, so afterwards is merely a matter if one believes that Switch sales on the whole will fall off a cliff or not. Those who do picked any of the ranges below 15m in the poll. Looking at you, @tbone51 

RFA2 will be coming holiday 2021 but if it does/doesn’t RFA should be closer to 15mil. This quarter will push it close to 9mil which for some reason flew over my head.

-15mil lifetime if RFA2 comes out in 2021/2022.

20mil if it doesnt



I think 20 million is a good possibility.

BQ: No... (Checks weight scale) I probably should though.



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I said 12.5 to 14.9 million. I assume sales will slow down next year post-covid, but I think it should sell about double whatever it is at at the end of this year. So probably right around 15 million. But it's possible it could keep these ridiculous legs and sell 20 million which would be awesome.

Bonus question: I have it, got it back in January of this year after playing it at a friend's house. Only played it a few times but that's cuz I live on the road and it's annoying to pull my tv out and set it up. Fun game though and a great cardio workout. If I was living in a home I'd play it plenty.

P.S. I really think Nintendo should turn this into a whole series and not just a standalone game. They could do multiple other genres in the Ring Fit style and allow owners of RFA to buy the new games at like $40 a pop since they wouldn't need to buy the ring again. Would be rewarding to those who spent the extra for the original RFA purchas and would rack up a lot more sales in the series. Plus they could release the whole thing as a collection on Switch 2 in 4-5 years.



Ring Fit Adventure Taiwan Q4:

1st; 1st; 1st; 1st; 3rd; 1st; n/a; 2nd; 3rd;

Ring Fit Adventure South Korea Q4:

1st; 1st; 1st; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 2nd; 1st;

Ring Fit Adventure Japan Q4:

3rd; 3rd; 3rd; 2nd; 5th; 2nd; 6th; 4th; 3rd

And the funny thing is that it's still not meeting demand, and there are un-tracked sales via the Official Nintendo store in Japan. 

Currently the supply is only normalized in the US across all other Amazon sites it's still being resold at a higher price:

JP: >¥10,900

FR: >115

DE: >110

IT: >110

UK: >£89

ES: >110

CA: >$119



tbone51 said:

RFA2 will be coming holiday 2021 but if it does/doesn’t RFA should be closer to 15mil. This quarter will push it close to 9mil which for some reason flew over my head.

-15mil lifetime if RFA2 comes out in 2021/2022.

20mil if it doesnt

I don't think they'll make a sequel. If they want to add more stuff, they will update the software.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Justifying Switch and it's software sales is getting tiresome now.

It's on the doubters to justify why it won't become the best selling fitness game of all time. It'll do 25m+ and beat Wii Fit and Kinect.

Never played Wii Fit so can't compare but RFA has been well worth the price. Not played the story mode much but as a local multiplayer game, it's great. Everyone feels like they've had a workout after trying to beat each others high scores on the different exercises. With Wii Sports, the fitness element came from how much unnecessary effort the player put into the game whereas RFA doesn't seem to have any shortcuts.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

picked 17.5 to 19.9.
I think this game will be bundled with switch eventually.