To give you guys context on how many Switches usually ship during the holiday season, Imma list down how well the Switch did the past 3 Holiday Quarters

Keep in mind the holiday quarter is the time period between October 1st-December 31st

Holiday 2017: 7.23 Million Shipped

Holiday 2018: 9.41 Million Shipped

Holiday 2019: 10.8 Million Shipped (Although I like to point out the Switch was slightly over shipped in the 2019 Holiday)

Also, Imma show how other successful Nintendo systems did during the holidays like the Wii and DS, since it may apply to your predictions:

2007 DS Holiday: 11.14 Million (The Year It Sold 30 Million)

2008 DS Holiday: 11.89 Million (Year It Sold 31 Million)

2008 Wii Holiday: 10.41 Million (Year It Sold 25 Million)

2009 Wii Holiday: 11.31 Million (Year It Sold 20 Million, NSMBWii also came out this holiday)

TBH I'm leaning towards the Switch selling 13 Million this quarter, that may be a bit optimistic since I don't think any console in history sold more than the 11.89 Million DS quarter. However, unlike the DS, the Switch has been struggling to meet demand all year round and I'm sure Nintendo has been saving a lot of stock for this Holiday to meet that unmet demand. While the DS was selling like crazy in 2008 it was still pretty easy to get in stores so the holiday numbers were less inflated since supply was their year round. Also, based off the past several Switch holiday seasons it seems like the Switch is a much better holiday console than the DS, not in terms of raw sales numbers, but in terms of growth. The Wii/DS's sales numbers between the regular season and the holiday season never really grew as exponentially as the Switch, so this makes me believe the Switch will sell much better than those consoles this holiday.

Voted 12M.
Seems like a decent enough increase over last year to be realistic. Crazy to think that if it does that it will actually break the record.

I'll risk and go for 13M even though 12M seems more likely.

Yes.

At least 12 million

I agree with the 12 million but want to point out that 145k in Japan is hardly doom & gloom. Japan's holiday period is typically later in December extending into January (shipped consoles for early January high sales should still be counted in this quarter)

I don't have Famitsu historical data to hand, but using VGC... looking at equivalent weeks in the past (final week of November) there have only been 5 times a console/handheld has done better than 145k (since DS):
Last year Switch did it, but this was shortly after Pokemon release (and not too long after switch lite)
before that it was 3DS in 2012
before that it was both DS & Wii in 2006 (this was Wii launch week)
before that DS in 2005

Due to excess shipments from last quarter, I will give it the same shipments as last year. Around 11m.

Yep around 12 Million, by then it would surpassed 3DS and GBA Lifetime Sales.