Q1 2020 FY

Hardware: 5.68M

Software: 50.43M

Shipped + Digital:

• New Horizon: 10.63M
• Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 1.97M
• Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition: 1.32M
• The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild: 1.19M
• Ring Fit Adventure: 1.17M
• Super Smash Bros. Ultimate: 1.15M
• Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics: 1.03M

Known figures

Q1 FY Nintendo Famitsu:

1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 749.362
2. Ring Fit Adventure - 528.581
3. Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 273.939(new)
4. Paper Mario: The Origami King - 256.899(new)
5. Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 219.575

NPD:

YoY Growth

• September : +55%
• August : +109%
• July : +35%

Leaked Software Sales:

• Super Mario 3D All-Stars: >1.1M physical

Predictions

Hardware: 7M

Software: 65M

Top 5: 

1. Super Mario 3D Collection: 5M
2. New Horizon: 4M
3. Ring Fit Adventure: 2.5M 
4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 2.25M
5. Paper Mario: 2M

Lots of money.


My prediction is correct.

What do I win?

I think:

- Hardware total will reach 68 million
- Super Mario 3D All Stars: 5 million
- Paper Mario: 4 million
- Animal Crossing: 25 million
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 32 million
- Xenoblade Remake: 2 million (or no figures at all)

Forecast: 25 million until March 2021

Hardware: 66.8 mil

Software: 455 mil

Team Evergreen:
MK8DX - 28.2 mil
AC:NH - 25.2 mil
SSBU - 21 mil
BotW - 19.7 mil
Sw/Sh - 18.9 mil
SMO - 18.7 mil
Ring Fit - 5.6 mil

Debuts:
3D All-Stars - 6.4 mil
Paper Mario - 3.1 mil

Hardware: 4.5 M

Software: 40 M

Super Mario 3D Collection: 5M
New Horizon: 3M
Paper Mario: 2.2M
Ring Fit Adventure: 1.5M
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 1.4M

When is Nintendo going to release the numbers?

Thursday, November 5th

[Hardware]
Switch : 5m+ / 66m+
3DS : ~100k / 75.88m

[Software]

(New Releases)
Super Mario 3D All-Stars : 6m+
Paper Mario: TOK : 3 to 4m

(Evergreen/Top 10)
Animal Crossing NH : 5m+ / 27m+
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe : ~1.75m / 28.75m
Pokemon Sword/Shield : ~750k / 19m
Zelda Breath of the Wild : ~1m / 19.5m
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate : ~1m / 21m
Super Mario Odyssey : ~700k / 18.8m
Super Mario Party : ~750k / 11.7m
Splatoon 2 : ~500k / 11.2m
NSMBU Deluxe : ~800k / 8.2m
Pokemon Let's Go : ~200k / 12.4m

(Others)
Ring Fit Adventure : 1.5m+ / 5.5m+
Xenoblade DE : ~300k / 1.6m
Clubhouse Games 51 : ~450k / 1.5m
Luigi's Mansion 3 :

For the quarter:

[NSW] 6,800K

[SM3DAS] 8,000K
[PMTOK] 3,000K

[ACNH] 6,000K
[MK8D] 2,000K
[RFA] 2,000K
[BOTW] 1,200K
[SSBU] 1,100K

The currently 36 number on the Wikipedia page here will become 37.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_Nintendo_Switch_video_games