Forums - Sales Discussion - Why some people underestimate the Nintendo Switch sales figures.

Earlier in the generation it seemed possible that the Switch might not get to 100M. But at this point 100M is a given. It should pass that milestone by a considerable margin. Still, as others pointed out, Nintendo systems tend to hit a wall, experiencing rapid drops in sales once Nintendo starts to slow down support for the current system and ramp up production and development for its replacement.

Even right now, the upcoming slate of Nintendo-published titles is looking sparse, with a few re-releases/remasters and mid-tier original titles. Almost all of the big guns have already been brought to bear, and that's been kind of the norm for Nintendo systems to have already gotten nearly all of their truly major titles within 3-4 years of release. Sure, we have a BotW sequel coming out, but what else? Metroid Prime 4 will certainly have fans, but Metroid has never been a major blockbuster franchise. I'm talking about the big marquee franchises. Will we see Mario Kart 9? Or another new mainline Mario game? Or another major Pokemon release? Will those be enough if they don't come soon enough?

The Switch is doing fantastic right now, no doubt about it. It should be able to get up to at least 120M units worldwide. But 150M+ like some people think? Unlikely. I still have my doubts that they can keep things going at this level for much longer without some major stimulative factor to help maintain the momentum. If not some huge game releases, then perhaps another major hardware revision and/or a price cut could work, but what kind of impact would those have on an aging system where those things have diminished impact the further you get into a system's life? If they're going to happen, they may need to happen soon. Otherwise, the idea that it has a realistic shot at beating the DS is still looking just as improbable as the idea that it might only sell 100M units. Could that change? Yes. Will it? I have my doubts.

And you know what? It's perfectly fine if it doesn't beat the DS. It's perfectly fine if it "only" sells 120M. That would still be enough to make it the #3 best-selling system ever, roughly tied with where the PS4 is likely to end up. It doesn't need to break records or become the new all-time #1 to be a success. It has more than proven already that it's a commercial success and that the hybrid design is a winning formula for Nintendo.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 17 October 2020

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I mean, who knows how sales will behave once children are consistently back to school after the pandemic.



 

 

 

 

 

Barozi said:

Yours is just a theory of many. There's no evidence for anything you just said. At least I was basing my assumptions off history.

Wii had 6 years before WiiU came out. In case of Switch that would be March 2023. That's in 2 1/2 years. Certainly not within your 3-4 years estimation. On top of that I proved how badly the Wii sold in 2012, the year WiiU launched. Only 5 million sales. WiiU was announced 1 1/2 years before it came out. Using the same time spans, Switch 2 will be announced in Fall 2021. That means Switch would have only 12 months of strong sales left and then could drop off completely in 2022.

Btw. the successor to N64 was released after 5 years and the successor to Gamecube was released after 5 years. Finally, the successor to WiiU 4 1/2 years later. Yet you expect 6 1/2 years to 7 1/2 years for Switch.

Switch is getting an upgraded version for next year, I don't see Nintendo teasing Switch's follow up before mid-2022



Barozi said:
Slownenberg said:

Huh? This is exactly what the OP is saying haha. "probably" will reach 100m?? It will probably reach 100m NEXT YEAR! It should end next year right around 100m. And the Switch 2 will still be multiple years away at that point. 120m is like the guaranteed bottom at this point. Like, if Switch died HARD and very soon it would still sell 120 million at this point. Again, this is what the OP is talking about, why do people still say stuff like this?

Maybe it's the talk of the new Switch model and some people seem to get confused and for some reason think it's a Switch 2 and not just another Switch model that is coming out soon. Switch 2 is yeeeaaaarrs away, 3-4 years away at this point. And in just over one year from now Switch should hit 100m. That's a hell of a lot of time to sell above 100m before the Switch is even replaced.

If Nintendo replaces Switch a little on the early side, like say holiday 2023, Switch should be looking at over 130m lifetime sales. If they replace it at what I think would be the perfect time, Spring 2024, it'll probably end up around 140 million. If they keep putting out good first party games for it in 2024 and don't replace it until holiday 2024 and the price is all cheap by then, then it could hit 150 million (49+29+24+17+14+9+5+2+1 = 150).

Yours is just a theory of many. There's no evidence for anything you just said. At least I was basing my assumptions off history.

Wii had 6 years before WiiU came out. In case of Switch that would be March 2023. That's in 2 1/2 years. Certainly not within your 3-4 years estimation. On top of that I proved how badly the Wii sold in 2012, the year WiiU launched. Only 5 million sales. WiiU was announced 1 1/2 years before it came out. Using the same time spans, Switch 2 will be announced in Fall 2021. That means Switch would have only 12 months of strong sales left and then could drop off completely in 2022.

Btw. the successor to N64 was released after 5 years and the successor to Gamecube was released after 5 years. Finally, the successor to WiiU 4 1/2 years later. Yet you expect 6 1/2 years to 7 1/2 years for Switch.

No, what I said is looking at things from the current context. You're trying to compare a system that is about to possibly have a 30 million YEAR, to systems that sold 13 to like 33 million in their entire lifetimes! And you're also trying to compare it to a system that was crazy hot for 3 years and then declined hard and was relied on non-gamers to become a super hot seller. It is extremely easy to point out how your arguments are very flawed and make no sense in the context of the Switch. Call my reasonable and common sense arguments "just a theory of many" if you want, what I'm saying is pretty obvious and I'm at least talking about the Switch, while you're trying to compare the Switch to N64, GC, and WiiU lol!



Because they dont know the numbers.
Recently I saw lots of people criticizing the NPD analyst saying that switch would be the best seller this holiday:
"This analyst must be drank, no way nintendo switch will sell more than PS5 this holiday."




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Barozi said:
Because Nintendo likes to kill off consoles early.
As someone already pointed out, the Wii was selling very well and Nintendo just happened to announce WiiU and not release any more big games for Wii. Wii sales then fell sharply.
It all depends on Nintendo. If they start releasing Switch 2 in 2022 and their games won't support cross-platform, then Switch might not get to 100 million sold.
Wii sold only 5m in all of 2012, which was the year WiiU came out (November 2012 to be exact).

IMO it probably will reach 100m but not more than 120m.

Another context. Wii and DS. Nintendo has two consoles to take care of: handheld and stationary.

Nintendo claims Switch will have a long lifespan.  



Fanboyism.

The same reason some people were saying the PS4 wouldn't get to 100m (even after it was already 90m+).



Bet Shiken that COD would outsell Battlefield in 2018. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8749702

I was once convinced that the Switch, if it was lucky, would sell up to 1 million units. I thought this was a very high, but fair, number for the Nintendo console. Imagine my shock when I was wrong.
I expect my next prediction to be far more accurate: 100 billion sales.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

I'm with Sean Malstrom on this. (Disagree pretty much on political side, but his market analysis in one the best)

The Myopia of Generations and Handheld Blindness



Agente42 said:

I'm with Sean Malstrom on this. (Disagree pretty much on political side, but his market analysis in one the best)

The Myopia of Generations and Handheld Blindness

Finding out that Malmstrom is a mask denier made my day. Thank you for that. 



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