damn this is going to be a thirsty holiday

PS4 finally falls below 50% market share.

Switch has another 400k+ week. I would say nothing special came out this week, but Super Mario 35 was released, and I've been playing it all week. I doubt it would affect hardware numbers though. It might affect Nintendo online subscriptions. This is the type of game that is worth getting a subscription for. Anyway, I digress....

Soon enough, switch will outsell PS4 and never look back. But for now, onwards and upwards to 3ds

Heh, thanks. 

I hope Nintendo says something about an uptick in subscriptions from Super Mario 35 in their next financial report (assuming this happened).  Technically, the report should only cover the quarter ending Sept 30, but sometimes they include extra information even if it happened after the end date. 

I love how 400k+ is just another week for the Switch nowadays.

Let's go all the way to 30mil mates

This week Switch is just under 17m.  Last week it was a little over 16.5m and that was the end of week 39.  (I'm going to round down to 16.5m to be a bit conservative.)  Nintendo very often has over 50% of it's annual sales during it's holiday quarter.

This year, I don't think there is any way that Nintendo can get over 50% of annual sales in the final quater.  However, I don't really think there is anyway it can sell less than 40% of annual sales either.  After all, it is the holiday quarter.  Here is a small breakdown of total sales vs. how much is in Q4.

I am very comfortable saying the Switch is going to land somewhere around 30m for the year.  If it sells really well then it might be a couple of million above 30m, or it could just as easily be a couple of million below 30m.  Either way, it is going to be close to 30m.  I think the only thing that could cut it short of this is if Nintendo is seriously supply constrained.  It might even sell less than 27m if supplies aren't there.  But Switch is currently on a sales trajectory to sell around 30m as long as Nintendo is capable of shipping enough out.

Holy crap! 13 million until Calendar 30 million, and we have all Autumn ahead.

Right now Switch is extremely competitive with the DS's best years.  It has a shot at breaking the annual sales record.  We probably won't know if it's going to happen or not until we get near the end of the holidays (or maybe even later if it's close and we need to look at adjustments based on Nintendo's official report).