I would be really surprised if Nintendo is keeping less supply for this holiday than last year...
They seem to be going for a second push for Animal Crossing this holiday to be the family game. We saw them bring back the Switch ACNH edition.
I also think they will do another bundle for this holiday, probably with MK8 again but maybe with a little discount this year. So yea, they did around 10 millions in Q4 last year, don't see why they would do less this year knowing they will have October and half of November higher than last year.

Supply is literally the only thing that can prevent a 30 million year at this point, and hopefully Nintendo realizes this and are doing absolutely everything possible to make and ship as many Switches as humanly possible.