No, this year is the peak. 2021 will sell significantly less.

Yes

Next year line up is much stronger than this year, and with some system sellers. Also rumours of a new Switch version. I can't see how 2021 won't sell more than 2020

I thought maybe in Japan 2020 was sure to be Switch's peak, but now we have MH and MH is historically a game that makes people buy hardware

yes not the 50m i original expected but maybe 40+

Won't most people interested in Breath of the Wild 2 already have a Switch for Breath of the Wild 1?

It's hard for me to see a reasonable case for more sales in 2021 than 2020. If the pandemic slows down, people will be gaming less. If the pandemic keeps rolling along, the worldwide economy is going to run out of steam and money will be tight. "System sellers" don't sell as.many systems once the generation is well underway, because many of the people that would buy for those games have already done so.

A Pro version and/or a good price cut on the regular and lite could certainly produce some sales though. So, I do think it will be a strong year. It just won't be 2020 strong. I'm guessing 18-22 million.

I put 21-25 million. I think its hard to predict though. I say at least 20 million though. I think a pro is coming and the lite/og are going to get a price cut. Plus i predict 2021 will have the best lineup yet.

19 million is my guess.

Yes.

Better 3P lineup
Better 1P lineup
"Pro" Revision
Price-Drops for OG/Lite

29-31M shipped this FY (5.7/7.2/13.0/5.0)
32-34M shipped next FY (6.5/7.5/14.5/5.0)

The cliff?

How significant roughly?

I don't think it'll sell as much next year, but I think it'll still be around 25 million next year. This year could be like 29 million.

- Upgraded model is coming next year, which means likely a price cut at least on the original model. And the rumor is this will happen early in the year.
- Nintendo will have upped production a ton so there won't be the shortages we had this year.
- Mario 3D World will get sales going well in February. It's also possible we see a Zelda collection in February for Zelda's 35th anniversary.
- Monster Hunter Rise is coming in March which should be a huge game and spur on lots of sales in Japan.
- BotW2 will definitely come out next year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it launch with the upgraded Switch model, which could be March or April if the rumors about the new model coming early in the year are true.
- Every year 3rd party support is getting better and better and 2021 should be by far the best year for 3rd party games as Switch will finally start getting new AAA third party content, right now the most obvious of which is the aforementioned MH.
- Rumors say Nintendo is planning a huge year for 1st party content, which makes sense after 2020, likely delays from Covid, and the fact that they are bringing out a new model. I could see a Pokemon remake and 2D Mario coming out next holiday season, to add to 3D World, Zelda Collection, BotW2. And likely several more popular games.
- Next year 10+ million lifetime sellers confirmed/very likely to come out could be 3D World, MH Rise, BotW2, Pokemon remake, 2D Mario, maybe even Zelda Collection if they make it available from early in the year through the holidays and they don't skimp on it, and if they throw in a Wii Sports compilation or a new Ring Fit game those could also be 10 million sellers. That's a huge amount considering 2020 will probably only end up having two 10+ million sellers (or three if BotW fans go crazy for Hyrule Warriors).