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Forums - Sales Discussion - If Xbox Series S is 100$ cheaper than PS5 All-Digital, does Xbox have a legitimate chance of outselling PS5 this gen?

 

If Xbox Series S is 100$ cheaper than PS5, could Xbox Outsell PS5?

Yes, Xbox is the favorite to win 9 5.77%
 
Yes, it's possible 36 23.08%
 
Unlikely 60 38.46%
 
No chance 51 32.69%
 
Total:156
Intrinsic said:
DonFerrari said:

Several other "infant" services got a much bigger growth. Netflix as soon as readily available to several markets got fast growth, PS+ after changing from only discount and give games to paywall for MP grew very fast. People were very fast to accept they wouldn't play MP for free. If people see or think there is better value they will change. So again I won't dispute price or your preference, just that for the market right now GP isn't the value you think it is, in 3 years it may be, but right now it isn't.

As people said, Sony sold 50M consoles for 299-399 USD in the same timeframe MS convinced people to try GP from 1-15/month.

Well said.

Anyone outside MSpushing GP is ignoring one crucial detail. It only has value if you are only interested in MS published or partnered titles. Because those are the only games you get day one on the service. Outside that, any game that comes to the service would have been available for at least 1-3 years in the one market. 

And there lies the issue. Its great and all having lots of games to play, but how many of those games did you care enough for to actually buy when they were available? And if you wanted them that much, chances have you already bought them. Eg. two of the biggest star out games coming to GP in September this year are Resident evil 7 and Destiny 2. Resident Evil 7 has been $20 on the PS store since November last year and Destiny 2 is FREE on the PS store.

Until GP can get games like those on its service on day 1, then the service will never amount to much, even when it has a library that is 500 games strong. Cause by then,I am sure on the PS tore you would see game bundles (4-10 games strong) available for as little as $10 or something like that. And even if sony adopted the same strategy, it too would amount to nothing much since it won't be able to get those their party games on it on day 1.

This is like MS has BC thing all over again, people don't buy new consoles to play old games. I'll say it again if MS comes and announces GTA6 will be exclusive to GP for one year? then be released on the PS5 and PC? Sony might as well just stop making consoles.

Just gonna say games like RDR2, Witcher 3, and Minecraft climbed to the top of the charts when they released, despite being “old” games. We don’t speak for everybody, maybe other core gamers but that’s about it. There’s simply too many games to play these days. Backlogs pile up, games you want but just don’t get around to. It’s more common then you think. 



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

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zorg1000 said:
Runa216 said:

Parents can't tell the difference between Transformers and Transmorphers (The shitty no-budget copycat), what makes you think they're savvy enough to research console offering? And if they did, don't you think they'd know enough that Xbox's game offerings are kinda lackluster?

Parents can't tell the difference between Transformers and Transmorphers?

I don't know the difference lol (I have 4 kids...) I find the name "Transmorphers" cooler tho!



RolStoppable said:
At the current point in time it's pretty likely that Microsoft will sell more consoles than Sony in the USA and the UK. The PS5 should cost $499 and it wouldn't make sense for the digital edition to cost less than $399. Microsoft has the better low-end and the better high-end option than Sony.

Globally it's a different story, because Microsoft has the reputation of an evil American corporation. The UK has a long history of prefering to align itself more with the USA than mainland Europe, so Microsoft has a lot less problems there. But in other countries of the world Microsoft is more or less the poster child for what is wrong with America, so whenever possible, people tend to opt for the non-Microsoft option.

Does MS have the better high-end? From what i understood they both have their pros and cons which for the most part cancel each other out.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RolStoppable said:
zorg1000 said:

Does MS have the better high-end? From what i understood they both have their pros and cons which for the most part cancel each other out.

Yes, they do. The PS5's only advantage is its faster SSD and that's something that most likely won't result in more than slightly shorter loading times in the majority of games. On the other hand, the XSX has the raw power advantage which will commonly result in more stable framerates and resolutions. Third parties will likely try to get a stable framerate on the PS5 with the compromise of a dynamic resolution, so the obligatory Digital Foundry comparisons will point out time and time again that the XSX version of a game has the better eyecandy. It won't be a big difference, but you know that every pixel counts in such discussions.

What the XSX has going for it can be easily used by third parties whereas the PS5's advantage will be first and foremost reserved for Sony's first party output. There's usually more time spent on playing a game than waiting for it to load, so it's safe to assume that most people will be willing to sacrifice a few seconds in favor of better performance. That is, in the USA and the UK.

I could have sworn the faster SSD offered more advantages than simply load times. O remember a bunch of devs talking about how it was a game changer and opened up alot of different opportunities.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic said:
HoloDust said:

They don't have to research anything - they'll either see them advertised for $25/$35 a month, with "over 100 high-quality games for one low monthly price". Sure, their kids can come and pester them for PS5, but if Sony doesn't have something similar, this monthly thing could be big.

And it's coming to 12 countries "this holiday":

  • Australia at Telstra
  • Canada at EB Games
  • Denmark at Elgiganten
  • Finland at Gigantti
  • France at FNAC
  • New Zealand at Spark
  • Norway at Elkjøp
  • Poland at Media Expert
  • South Korea at SK Telecom
  • Sweden at Elgiganten
  • UK at GAME and Smyths Toys
  • United States at Best Buy, GameStop, Target, Microsoft Store, and Walmart

I don't know how it works for you, or how you think these things typically go. But if kids are pestering their parents for something, the parent doesn't go and buy something else that the kid didn't ask for because "it's cheaper".

Furthermore, that market you are talking about doesn't even come into effect this year. The launch is seldom ever driven by parents wanting to get a new console for their kids. Its usually driven by the loyalist. The people in the know enough to have pre-ordered months in advance or go and stay in line days in advance. To be tracking multiple sites daily to see which has stock...etc.

Soccer moms and dads get in next year. If they get in this year, they would account for less than 5-15% of all sales.

Again, while you and I appear to agree in most ways, I have to say...this statement is so, SO wrong. Yes, parents DO buy cheaper things all the time. It's a well-known issue, one I dealt with many times myself and I know others have as well. To be fair, on the opposite side, parents today are the grown up versions of the kids that got this treatment so maybe they're better equipped? I dunno. 

all I know is that this IS a real issue, it DOES happen, and it'd be disingenuous to disregard that reality. 



My Console Library:

PS5, Switch, XSX

PS4, PS3, PS2, PS1, WiiU, Wii, GCN, N64 SNES, XBO, 360

3DS, DS, GBA, Vita, PSP, Android

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RolStoppable said:
At the current point in time it's pretty likely that Microsoft will sell more consoles than Sony in the USA and the UK. The PS5 should cost $499 and it wouldn't make sense for the digital edition to cost less than $399. Microsoft has the better low-end and the better high-end option than Sony.

Globally it's a different story, because Microsoft has the reputation of an evil American corporation. The UK has a long history of prefering to align itself more with the USA than mainland Europe, so Microsoft has a lot less problems there. But in other countries of the world Microsoft is more or less the poster child for what is wrong with America, so whenever possible, people tend to opt for the non-Microsoft option.

Again, I keep seeing this 'it'll do better in the US/UK' narrative, but I just don't see it being real. It wasn't the case at all for the last 7-10 years, Microsoft can't catch a break, they aren't even launching with a killer app in Halo Infinite, and so many other factors tell me (and many others) that they're on the downward trend. I'm sorry, even beating Sony in the US/UK at this point would be a shocking upset to anyone who's been paying attention. They didn't do it in Gen 6, they didn't do it in Gen 8, and while they did it in Gen 7, there's no denying a HUGE factor in that was that sony fucked up super duper hard. the Xbox 360 was the exception, not the rule. Why are so many people acting like it'll happen like that again? 

could it? Of course it could. will it? Seriously, not likely. 



My Console Library:

PS5, Switch, XSX

PS4, PS3, PS2, PS1, WiiU, Wii, GCN, N64 SNES, XBO, 360

3DS, DS, GBA, Vita, PSP, Android

Well shit.



Runa216 said:
DonFerrari said:

Xbox One had running promotions and deals that put it 100 lower than MSRP most of the year making it effectivelly 100 USD cheaper than PS4 in USA for most of the year. MSRP was the same since 2014 and then with these deals it was a lot cheaper almost ever since.

Will counter X360 being 200 cheaper than PS3 as well?

I'm all about honesty and truth and fairness, so while I'm totally on team Sony here...when Xbox was cheaper than PS3, it was regularly selling a tonne more; it wasn't until Sony went down to I think 299 that they really kicked up a storm. that plus all the exclusives they were getting around that time. but yeah, THAT much of a difference (Especially when coupled with all the other problems PS3 had) was certainly a factor. 

Actually not exactly right.

When you align from release PS3 was always ahead of X360 even with 200 price difference. Even if you consider calendar years PS3 outsold X360 all but one year. Only when you take cumulative without aligning that X360 was ahead until almost the end.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Runa216 said:

Again, while you and I appear to agree in most ways, I have to say...this statement is so, SO wrong. Yes, parents DO buy cheaper things all the time. It's a well-known issue, one I dealt with many times myself and I know others have as well. To be fair, on the opposite side, parents today are the grown up versions of the kids that got this treatment so maybe they're better equipped? I dunno. 

all I know is that this IS a real issue, it DOES happen, and it'd be disingenuous to disregard that reality. 

Fair enough, then I stand corrected.

Either way though, I don't see parents buying a console for their kids bein he ones doing the bulk of the purchasing during a launch window.

RolStoppable said:

This reminds me of seven years ago when people found it hard to believe that the PS4 could beat the XB1 in the USA, because the 360 outsold the PS3 by more than 15m units.

It's no surprise that Microsoft couldn't beat Sony during the past seven years because that's the timeframe of a generation where Microsoft had a garbage console. Microsoft messed up tremendously, but in the end the XB1 will be less than 10m behind the PS4 in the USA. That should tell you that Americans like to buy Xbox. So if the XSX|S happens to be the better console and the better deal, what's going to happen in the country that likes to shout "America first"?  They'll prefer the American box for sure. Not by as big of a margin as the 360 over the PS3 because Sony won't mess up with the PS5 like they did with the PS3, but Microsoft will be ahead nonetheless.

Honestly, it won't surprise me if PS5 loses to Xbox in NA, but I believe that at the very worst it would be close enough to be a tie. And maybe the UK too. That's saying that doesn't necessarily bode well for the Xbox. If Xbox sells as much as the PS4 sold this gen in both NA and the UK, that only raises their total sales at the end of next-gen by around 9M.

That's like saying what? Xbox sells 60M and PS5 ends up selling only 110M?

PAOerfulone said:

Well shit.

Fuck...

I was kinda expecting it though.



DonFerrari said:
Runa216 said:

I'm all about honesty and truth and fairness, so while I'm totally on team Sony here...when Xbox was cheaper than PS3, it was regularly selling a tonne more; it wasn't until Sony went down to I think 299 that they really kicked up a storm. that plus all the exclusives they were getting around that time. but yeah, THAT much of a difference (Especially when coupled with all the other problems PS3 had) was certainly a factor. 

Actually not exactly right.

When you align from release PS3 was always ahead of X360 even with 200 price difference. Even if you consider calendar years PS3 outsold X360 all but one year. Only when you take cumulative without aligning that X360 was ahead until almost the end.

Yup, you're right. PS3 outsold the 360 for all but one-year while it was out. Two years if you count the PS3s launch year.

The thing though was that the 360 already had a near 10M lead before the PS3 launched. It took the PS3 7 years to pull it back.