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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Switch have the greatest selling console calendar year of all time?

 

Will the Switch have the greatest selling console year ever?

Yes (+29M Sold) 19 38.00%
 
No (Less Than 29M Sold) 31 62.00%
 
Total:50
wohufana said:
RolStoppable said:
I don't think so. I doubt that Nintendo has ordered production increases big enough to reach those heights, so the more important question if demand is actually high enough for 29m+ doesn't need to be answered to begin with. But I should tackle it anyway.

The DS's price was $130 in 2008, so price was of no concern to potential customers. Switch, on the other hand, still costs so much that its price, whether that is the hybrid SKU or the cheaper Lite, is still taken into consideration. Additionally, Nintendo runs very much a longterm strategy with Switch, so they'll prioritize profitability over unit sales, therefore there's no reason to expect any price cuts this year.

Secondly, the YTD comparison you posted in the OP compares plain normal DS sales to inflated Switch sales, because we can't sit here and pretend that COVID-19 lockdowns had no influence. While the DS had consistent momentum throughout 2008, Switch is now in the phase where its sales will have to make do without a corona boost. To add to that, Nintendo's first party lineup for Switch will be low-key until the holiday title arrives, so within the next three months it should become more obvious that Switch won't challenge the DS's peak anymore.

In order to beat the DS's 2008, Europe would need to see a sudden strong uptick in Switch demand. Sales in the region had been okay for three years before Animal Crossing and COVID-19 upgraded them to good, but to beat the DS, they will need to be great

Do you have a validated research stating that Switch sales skyrocketed this year because of COVID-19? This pandemic resulted to global economic crisis that led to mass lay-off of workers and unemployment. Game consoles are luxuries and the affected people here particularly those who are about to buy a console would rather buy necessities such as foods and give priority to monthly bills. Can't we just admit that Switch is a gaming phenomenon that happens once in a blue moon?

It's well documented that covid-19 has resulted in a boom to the games industry. People have been stuck at home and needed entertainment.

The other consoles have also seen increases in sales this year, which considering this is their last year is highly unusual and can only be attributed to the current circumstances.

PS4 Sales (March - July 2019)  =  4.75m
PS4 Sales (March - July 2020)  =  5.03m

XBO Sales (March - July 2019) = 1.18m
XBO Sales (March - July 2020) = 1.78m

"Generally, sales of video games have increased as a result of stay-at-home and lockdown orders from the pandemic, as people turn to video games as a pastime. The NPD Group reported that video game sales in North America in March 2020 were up 34% from those in March 2019, video game hardware up by 63%"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_the_video_game_industry

As for peoples personal finances, it must be remembered that money they would have been spending on eating out, leisure activities and other forms of entertainment is no longer being spent there. Money is being shifted from industries that are being closed due to the pandemic (cinema, restaurants, clubs, sport events) and instead in some cases being spent on video games.

Whether this video game boost eventually turns into a drought remains to be seen, as the economic damage really starts to take root. People at the start of the pandemic may have been happy to spend money on gaming, but the longer it goes on they might start feeling the pinch hard.

Update with more NPD stats:

(Money spent on gaming in the USA)

March - 34% higher spend than March 2019.
April - Highest spend for April on record. $1.5 Billion compared to previous record of $1.2 Billion in April 2008.
May - 52% more spent than May 2019, highest spending May since 2008.
June - 26% more spent than June 2019, highest spending June since 2009.

So April, May and June all saw the highest money spent in those months for over a decade, and April for all time.

Last edited by Barkley - on 13 August 2020

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Barkley said:
wohufana said:

Do you have a validated research stating that Switch sales skyrocketed this year because of COVID-19? This pandemic resulted to global economic crisis that led to mass lay-off of workers and unemployment. Game consoles are luxuries and the affected people here particularly those who are about to buy a console would rather buy necessities such as foods and give priority to monthly bills. Can't we just admit that Switch is a gaming phenomenon that happens once in a blue moon?

It's well documented that covid-19 has resulted in a boom to the games industry. People have been stuck at home and needed entertainment.

The other consoles have also seen increases in sales this year, which considering this is their last year is highly unusual and can only be attributed to the current circumstances.

PS4 Sales (March - July 2019)  =  4.75m
PS4 Sales (March - July 2020)  =  5.03m

XBO Sales (March - July 2019) = 1.18m
XBO Sales (March - July 2020) = 1.78m

"Generally, sales of video games have increased as a result of stay-at-home and lockdown orders from the pandemic, as people turn to video games as a pastime. The NPD Group reported that video game sales in North America in March 2020 were up 34% from those in March 2019, video game hardware up by 63%"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_the_video_game_industry

As for peoples personal finances, it must be remembered that money they would have been spending on eating out, leisure activities and other forms of entertainment is no longer being spent there. Money is being shifted from industries that are being closed due to the pandemic (cinema, restaurants, clubs, sport events) and instead in some cases being spent on video games.

Whether this video game boost eventually turns into a drought remains to be seen, as the economic damage really starts to take root. People at the start of the pandemic may have been happy to spend money on gaming, but the longer it goes on they might start feeling the pinch hard.

From a regional perspective, the Americas' labor market suffers the most. Recently, a New York Times article was titled  "7.7 million young people are unemployed." It also says "nearly 7.7 million American workers younger than 30 are now unemployed and three million dropped out of the labor force in the past month." 

Source https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-29/COVID-19-leads-to-dramatic-unemployment-young-people-suffer-the-most-QSUcPNPJ0Q/index.html

 

The so-called informal economy – whether migrant, agricultural, or shift workers in the developing world, or the gig workers and service-industry staff increasingly predominant in wealthier economies. The International Labor Organization found that COVID-19 had left almost all 2 billion of them finding it precariously hard to make ends meet.

Source https://www.csmonitor.com/World/2020/0506/No-jobs-so-what-future-Half-the-world-s-workforce-on-the-edge

The US unemployment rate has risen to 14.7%, with 20.5 million jobs lost in April, as the coronavirus pandemic devastated the economy.The rise means the jobless rate is now worse than at any time since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Source https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52591262

You cannot buy luxuries like consoles if you are unemployed. With these facts, I can say that consoles should have sold more if COVID-19 pandemic never happened. The increase in console sales is just minimal and therefore the 3 consoles should have sold more especially the Switch. Switch sales is simply a phenomenon, just admit it.



No, Switch wont.
Because a lot of "would have been christmas purchases" were made (without forsight) early due to the virus.
And given that governments of many countries continue to destroy their own country's economy,
I'd even bet that this year's christmas will be the weakest of all the years switch has been and will be on the market.
Companies filing for bankruptcy and the resulting rise in unemployment will make people think twice about spending money on video games.



Nintendo Switch:

... announced as a Home Console

... advertised as a Hybrid

... delivered as a Portable

wohufana said:

You cannot buy luxuries like consoles if you are unemployed. With these facts, I can say that consoles should have sold more if COVID-19 pandemic never happened. The increase in console sales is just minimal and therefore the 3 consoles should have sold more especially the Switch. Switch sales is simply a phenomenon, just admit it.

Literally posted showing figures showing that video game spending during the pandemic is the highest it's been in a decade and this is your argument still. Your figures that unemployment has gone up are completely meaningless compared to those. Clearly a discussion with you isn't worth continuing.

But for other people I will repost the point I made on why video game spending is going up:

"It must be remembered that money that would have been spending on eating out, leisure activities and other forms of entertainment is no longer being spent there. Money is being shifted from industries that are being closed due to the pandemic (cinema, restaurants, clubs, sport events) and instead in some cases being spent on video games."



Barkley said:
wohufana said:

You cannot buy luxuries like consoles if you are unemployed. With these facts, I can say that consoles should have sold more if COVID-19 pandemic never happened. The increase in console sales is just minimal and therefore the 3 consoles should have sold more especially the Switch. Switch sales is simply a phenomenon, just admit it.

Literally posted showing figures showing that video game spending during the pandemic is the highest it's been in a decade and this is your argument still. Your figures that unemployment has gone up are completely meaningless compared to those. Clearly a discussion with you isn't worth continuing.

But for other people I will repost the point I made on why video game spending is going up:

"It must be remembered that money that would have been spending on eating out, leisure activities and other forms of entertainment is no longer being spent there. Money is being shifted from industries that are being closed due to the pandemic (cinema, restaurants, clubs, sport events) and instead in some cases being spent on video games."

Video game spending during the pandemic is the highest it's been in a decade? Yes that's right as we can see with the numbers you presented. But my point is, even without the pandemic we might also see the same sales numbers with the Switch and even much, much higher and can easily match or even surpass DS' 2008 sales because people did not lose their jobs and their purchasing power and that is simply my point of argument. I hope you got it

Last edited by wohufana - on 13 August 2020

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They increased production to 25 millions, I think it might get another increase. So yea I'm pretty sure it will beat out the Wii, but the DS not really. Feel like they weren't ready for such a high.



RolStoppable said:
I don't think so. I doubt that Nintendo has ordered production increases big enough to reach those heights, so the more important question if demand is actually high enough for 29m+ doesn't need to be answered to begin with. But I should tackle it anyway.

The DS's price was $130 in 2008, so price was of no concern to potential customers. Switch, on the other hand, still costs so much that its price, whether that is the hybrid SKU or the cheaper Lite, is still taken into consideration. Additionally, Nintendo runs very much a longterm strategy with Switch, so they'll prioritize profitability over unit sales, therefore there's no reason to expect any price cuts this year.

Secondly, the YTD comparison you posted in the OP compares plain normal DS sales to inflated Switch sales, because we can't sit here and pretend that COVID-19 lockdowns had no influence. While the DS had consistent momentum throughout 2008, Switch is now in the phase where its sales will have to make do without a corona boost. To add to that, Nintendo's first party lineup for Switch will be low-key until the holiday title arrives, so within the next three months it should become more obvious that Switch won't challenge the DS's peak anymore.

In order to beat the DS's 2008, Europe would need to see a sudden strong uptick in Switch demand. Sales in the region had been okay for three years before Animal Crossing and COVID-19 upgraded them to good, but to beat the DS, they will need to be great

Yes, Covid-19 has slightly inflated sales numbers for video game sales across the board. However, more evidence is showing that Covid-19 is far from the main reason why the Switch is selling 400K a week at this point and is up 92% YoY. While the PS4 and Xbox One did get temporary boosts of sales numbers when this pandemic first started, the sales numbers now are back to reality with the PS4 still going down YoY overall. It's obviously expected to be down YoY when the PS5 is around the corner, however if the corona boost was so major the PS4 sales should be up YoY and should be selling at least around 200K+ a week, but numbers are now back to reality for the PS4/Xbox One.

The Switch on the other hand is selling twice as much as the year before and selling 400K a week, no way Covid-19 was a major reason for that when the other consoles fail to replicate similar YoY growth. The far bigger reason people are buying a Switch is Animal Crossing, Animal Crossing has become a global phenomenon with many casuals purchasing the Switch just to play Animal Crossing, Animal Crossing shipped nearly 11M in Q1 alone which is mind-blowing. 



Very high achievement, but quite possible.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

javi741 said:

While the PS4 and Xbox One did get temporary boosts of sales numbers when this pandemic first started, the sales numbers now are back to reality with the PS4 still going down YoY overall. It's obviously expected to be down YoY when the PS5 is around the corner, however if the corona boost was so major the PS4 sales should be up YoY and should be selling at least around 200K+ a week, but numbers are now back to reality for the PS4/Xbox One.

Before the pandemic the PS4 was down 30% YoY (for Jan+Feb). But for the period of March-July the PS4 has been up 5.8% YoY. Sales aren't back to reality either both PS4 and XBO were both still up YoY in July.

Last edited by Barkley - on 13 August 2020

It's possible but I voted no because the supply just won't be there for 29m+.