I know this question has probably been asked a million times in this website. However, I feel like these quarter's results gave us our first true idea of how major and huge Animal Crossing is for selling Switch's, big enough to where it warrants to ask this question again to see if you guys updated your sales predictions after the explosion of Switch sales no one saw coming.

For me, it definitely changed my complete prediction for the Switch's lifetime sales, as I kept changing it over the years constantly. Before the Switch launched I predicted a pessimistic 30Million LT total after the Wii U made me doubtful of Nintendo at the time. However, I changed my prediction to 113 Million right before this quarter's results came in, which is still amazing for a console to surpass 100M  by a marginal amount over the PS1 and Wii, even though I wanted to predict a higher amount sold I still chose a conservative number since I knew how much the Wii fell off the cliff. 

However, after these quarters results I decided to change my prediction from 113 Million Sold to 132 Million Sold, the Switch will blow past the Wii/PS1, beat the Gameboy and imo likely outsell the PS4 to become the 3rd greatest selling system of all time and 2nd greatest selling home console of all time.

Don't know. Nintendo is so weird sometimes it's hard to tell.

Nintendo definitely has the momentum, and I feel like the Switch is already so much weaker than other products that the kind of people buying it aren't going to be swayed by even better specs of PS5X.

They have a crazy foundation of evergreen games that are going to keep the console moving for a while... I think Nintendo's strategy actual gels really well with the social media generation where communities can form around these games and keep attracting new users for years to come (it'd help even more if Nintendo had better policies on that stuff).

But we still know like nothing about what they have in store for the future in terms of software or potential hardware revisions. And without that, idk. 110 seems like a lock, but beyond that I can't even guess.

I was already predicting around 135-140mil lifteime. Rather than boost my prediction, this quarter really just helps me feel more comfortable it.

I still don't see much benefit in a mid-gen upgrade, and I can't imagine it giving Switch much more of a boost than the Pro/X models did for their respective systems.

What I see as the biggest factors is the amount of games Nintendo should release in the next couple calender years, while the next-gen twins are still barely off the ground. By all estimations, they shoud be stacked with software to release at any point.

Next E3, I'm expecting an E3 2014 level show, which this time won't fall on deaf ears with an actual growing install-base, with big games like MP4 finally shown for the first time, along with big new announcements. And as with E3 2014, I expect Nintendo (unlike certain counterparts who sell a dream of what's to come (years.. and years later)) to show games available in short order.

In particular though, the biggest possible game would be a new Mario Kart. A whole new Mario Kart that makes a notable jump from the now 6 year old Mario Kart 8, would be the best way to give Switch a second lease on life, and keep it's momentum steady for years.

Has Sony or MS said how many sales were mid gen upgrades? Famitsu has it about 1/5 of total sales, which is what Sony was originally reported. Of course, we don't know how many of those people would have bought a PS4 anyway.

But I think the Switch would benefit more from a mid gen update than the others, because it is portable. Because of that, the physical attributes of the system are far more relevant to consumers, so I think there's more reasons to give consumers to upgrade. Also, the upgrades to the PS4/XBox One targeted a somewhat niche market since they targeted 4KTV owners which I think just now is hitting 50% market penetration. By comparison, whatever they change on the Switch will presumably benefit any potential owner. 

If it's just about changes in form factor, particularly for handheld, the Switch Lite already fills that need. It's smaller, more comfortable for general hand sizes and comes with a d-pad. It's also easily compatible with OG Switch being able to transfer saves.

Theoretically though, if they were to have a drastic mid-gen change in form factor for the full Switch, I'd love to see a clamshell design worked in. It'd be nice to dock it with the screen closed in, and not have to worry about scratching it every time I un-dock.

Mostly though, my point is directed at the idea of the mid-gen power boosted Switch. It made some sense for Pro/X where the vast majority of software sales are third-party, and those new AAA games were struggling more and more on base systems. Whereas first-party games, particularly with PS4, were able to age fairly well on base systems. On Switch it's obviously not the same, and I doubt the market of people who won't buy Switch until it plays Cyberpunk is really worth chasing right now.

I only believe in predictions made beforehand. I predicted 40M back in 2017, and I’m still pretty confident about it.

130-140 million

I had been predicting ~125 million. Now I've upped it to 130-140 million. I think falling right around 135 is likely.

They've still got likely one or two more new models in the future: Premium Switch and maybe a Switch Home that'll bring in some new people but also get some people who bought the Switch early on to upgrade. They have yet to do a price cut so they've got probably two real solid price cuts in the future. They have yet to start discounting first party games, which could help bring new people on board when they can get load up on the big games for $30 a piece (though this probably won't be for like another three years with how well evergreens are doing). They have BotW2 coming out presumably in the next 6 to 9 months I'd guess. They're finally starting to get more AAA third party support this year, granted its old games but I guess that's the best we can expect. They've still got a ton of AA first party games that have yet to come out. The system will continue to be THE place for indie games. Also they could have several more 15+ million mega selling titles coming out in the future other than BotW2 like a new 2D Mario, Mario 3D Collection of some sort this holiday, a new 3D Mario, one or maybe even two more Pokemon games, possibly even a new Mario Kart at some point though hopefully they'll do something a little different like a Smash-up style Nintendo Racer. Also if they are smart they'll bring out a few more Ring Fit games and a Wii Sports type game and maybe a Nintendogs type game to grab more of the casual and female base that Animal Crossing has energized. Also Switch right now is THE thing to have, and the AC craze is still going strong, if they can continue that with Mario anniversary collections, BotW2, new Switch model, new Pokemon, MP4, new Ring Fit, some more casual stuff all in the next 17 months they should still be going full tilt by the end of next year.

As long as they pump out the games and 2020 is just a slow year thanks to Covid they are in an extremely strong position for the next few years.

150 million