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Shaunodon on 07 August 2020
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JWeinCom said:

Shaunodon said:

I was already predicting around 135-140mil lifteime. Rather than boost my prediction, this quarter really just helps me feel more comfortable it.

I still don't see much benefit in a mid-gen upgrade, and I can't imagine it giving Switch much more of a boost than the Pro/X models did for their respective systems.

What I see as the biggest factors is the amount of games Nintendo should release in the next couple calender years, while the next-gen twins are still barely off the ground. By all estimations, they shoud be stacked with software to release at any point.

Next E3, I'm expecting an E3 2014 level show, which this time won't fall on deaf ears with an actual growing install-base, with big games like MP4 finally shown for the first time, along with big new announcements. And as with E3 2014, I expect Nintendo (unlike certain counterparts who sell a dream of what's to come (years.. and years later)) to show games available in short order.

In particular though, the biggest possible game would be a new Mario Kart. A whole new Mario Kart that makes a notable jump from the now 6 year old Mario Kart 8, would be the best way to give Switch a second lease on life, and keep it's momentum steady for years.

Has Sony or MS said how many sales were mid gen upgrades? Famitsu has it about 1/5 of total sales, which is what Sony was originally reported. Of course, we don't know how many of those people would have bought a PS4 anyway.

But I think the Switch would benefit more from a mid gen update than the others, because it is portable. Because of that, the physical attributes of the system are far more relevant to consumers, so I think there's more reasons to give consumers to upgrade. Also, the upgrades to the PS4/XBox One targeted a somewhat niche market since they targeted 4KTV owners which I think just now is hitting 50% market penetration. By comparison, whatever they change on the Switch will presumably benefit any potential owner. 

If it's just about changes in form factor, particularly for handheld, the Switch Lite already fills that need. It's smaller, more comfortable for general hand sizes and comes with a d-pad. It's also easily compatible with OG Switch being able to transfer saves.

Theoretically though, if they were to have a drastic mid-gen change in form factor for the full Switch, I'd love to see a clamshell design worked in. It'd be nice to dock it with the screen closed in, and not have to worry about scratching it every time I un-dock.

Mostly though, my point is directed at the idea of the mid-gen power boosted Switch. It made some sense for Pro/X where the vast majority of software sales are third-party, and those new AAA games were struggling more and more on base systems. Whereas first-party games, particularly with PS4, were able to age fairly well on base systems. On Switch it's obviously not the same, and I doubt the market of people who won't buy Switch until it plays Cyberpunk is really worth chasing right now.