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Slownenberg on 08 August 2020
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I had been predicting ~125 million. Now I've upped it to 130-140 million. I think falling right around 135 is likely.

They've still got likely one or two more new models in the future: Premium Switch and maybe a Switch Home that'll bring in some new people but also get some people who bought the Switch early on to upgrade. They have yet to do a price cut so they've got probably two real solid price cuts in the future. They have yet to start discounting first party games, which could help bring new people on board when they can get load up on the big games for $30 a piece (though this probably won't be for like another three years with how well evergreens are doing). They have BotW2 coming out presumably in the next 6 to 9 months I'd guess. They're finally starting to get more AAA third party support this year, granted its old games but I guess that's the best we can expect. They've still got a ton of AA first party games that have yet to come out. The system will continue to be THE place for indie games. Also they could have several more 15+ million mega selling titles coming out in the future other than BotW2 like a new 2D Mario, Mario 3D Collection of some sort this holiday, a new 3D Mario, one or maybe even two more Pokemon games, possibly even a new Mario Kart at some point though hopefully they'll do something a little different like a Smash-up style Nintendo Racer. Also if they are smart they'll bring out a few more Ring Fit games and a Wii Sports type game and maybe a Nintendogs type game to grab more of the casual and female base that Animal Crossing has energized. Also Switch right now is THE thing to have, and the AC craze is still going strong, if they can continue that with Mario anniversary collections, BotW2, new Switch model, new Pokemon, MP4, new Ring Fit, some more casual stuff all in the next 17 months they should still be going full tilt by the end of next year.

As long as they pump out the games and 2020 is just a slow year thanks to Covid they are in an extremely strong position for the next few years.