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Forums - Sales - Famitsu Sales: Week 31, 2020 (Jul 27 - Aug 02)

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Agente42 on 08 August 2020
Kai_Mao said:
noshten said:

Just goes to show that despite everything football is still huge and Pro Evolution Soccer could be a big game on the Switch if Konami releases it next year.

Next year Konami could very well be the first Japanese 3rd Party to have a million-seller in Japan on the Switch. Momotaro Dentetsu sales in Japan are going to be huge this holiday, I don't doubt this will be the top-selling game in the franchise. It's months before the release and the game is still in the Top 5 at Amazon, there is also a 2nd version of the game at #77. And this is supposably a casual game that doesn't do the most pre-orders as the majority of people buying it do so at launch. Much like Super Mario Party, it will eventually get to 1M most likely at some point next year. 

Square's support on the Switch has always been good, they've been moving DQ audience there from very early on. They launched the second-most games from a Japanese 3rd Party behind Bandai Namco. With at least 8 games that have surpassed 50K physical sales. The main issue with Square has been supplied for their games, JRPGs are notoriously front-loaded and every time Square launches a JRPG on the Switch not named DQ they seem to underestimate demand. Octopath could have sold >250K physical if it wasn't impossible to find, Trials of Mana could have been around 150K, with the second-hand market they have surely missed some sales because of their approach. It will be interesting if they learned a lesson with Bravely Default 2. 

Bandai will have Pro Baseball Famista 2020 & Captain Tsubasa this year, coupled with a late port of Jump Force, people might complain about certain games missing the Switch but it's a matter of time before their entire pipeline is there. Bandai simply doesn't have much of a choice since the majority of the anime games they work on need to be on the device dominating the Japanese Videogame market. This year Switch has 87.47% of the hardware market... this won't change much with the PS5 launch. As outlined before even during the peak of Wii/DS Nintendo only had 66.7%:

  • 2016: 47.1%
  • 2017: 69.8%
  • 2018: 67.4%
  • 2019: 79.1%
  • 2020: 87.47%

Simply put the current situation is unprecedented and companies who haven't build up a good audience and brand awareness on the Switch are going to struggle to sell their games in Japan. 

At this point, I don't see much of the 3rd party support changing much, or at least for the better.

Atelier Ryza 2, SMT 3HD, SMT 5, NMH3, Bayonetta 3, Captain Tsubasa, Yokai Watch Y, Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles, and Bravely Default II appear to be some of the few games that are either:

- exclusive

- multiplats selling on the same day as other consoles

Square Enix does not seem interested in releasing any game from Nier on Switch and there appears to be rumors of the next Dragon Quest not coming to Switch.

Bandai Namco does not appear interested in release Soul Calibur VI, Tales of Arise, or any other high-profile game on Switch.

Capcom...we can count all of their new, original games on Switch with one hand at this point. Even have to kindly ask for more Street Fighter games, which leads me to believe the Switch will likely not get any of the upcoming fighting games. When SNK released more new fighting games (SNK Heroines and Samurai Shodown) on Switch compared to Capcom (USFII?), then you know something is off.

Sega..nothing new apparently is coming on Switch as of now outside of the SMT games. I wouldn't even be surprised after all the talk with Atlus after Persona 4 Golden's success on Steam that the Switch will get anything Persona outside of Persona 5 Scramble.

And I think I'm being reasonable with the games I'm expecting. I'm not expecting FFVIIR or RE2R. But if something like Astral Chain and Dragon Quest XI S can look and run great on Switch and succeed, then I have to wonder if anyone from these companies are seeing the sales success of the Switch.

bet against the market leader, increase price production, more expensive videogame and games, macroeconomics trends go down: the worst-case scenario. Likewise 7th generation, I believe, medium-size companies go down. 



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curl-6 on 08 August 2020

Barring some kind of miracle, it looks all but guaranteed at this point that PS4 is not going to reach PS3 sales in Japan.

Not even mainline Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest could avert the brand's decline there.

Even with every third party automatically helping them, PS5 will face an uphill battle.



noshten on 09 August 2020

Yep, even with a much larger investment into Anime games, Sony will still struggle to maintain 20% market share in terms of hardware which will lead to Software being lopsided in Nintendo's favor. Nintendo obviously sales the bulk of software on the Switch but that's mainly because of the subpar support. The rest of the year there is actually plenty of 3rd Party games releasing that could do very well. While on the PS4/PS5, I struggle to think of a game that's going to surpass 300K the rest of the year. Seemingly that Ghost of Tsushima will probably be the last game to reach 300K on the PS4 and I don't think any game revelaed this year on the PS5 will sale more than 300K, there is probably a cross-gen title that could do it on the PS4/PS5 

Software Market Share by Year(gamedatalibrary):

  • 2016: Nintendo 52.7% vs Sony 47%
  • 2017: Nintendo 62.3% vs Sony 37.6%
  • 2018: Nintendo 58.4% vs Sony 41.6%
  • 2019: Nintendo 66.7% vs Sony 33.3%

Software Market Share 2020:

  • 2020 Q1: Nintendo 77.5% vs Sony 22.5%
  • 2020 Q2: Nintendo 71.8% vs Sony 28.2%
  • 2020 Q3: Nintendo 65.8% vs Sony 34.2%

Physical Software Sales 2020:

  • 2020 Q1: Nintendo Ecosystem 6.08M vs Sony Ecosystem 1.76M
  • 2020 Q2: Nintendo Ecosystem 4.43M vs Sony Ecosystem 1.74M
  • 2020 Q3: Nintendo Ecosystem 1.39M vs Sony Ecosystem 0.72M

TOTAL 2020: 

  • Nintendo 73.8% vs Sony 26.2%
  • Nintendo Ecosystem 11.9M vs Sony Ecosystem 4.22M

TOTAL without Animal Crossing: 

  • Nintendo 61% vs Sony 39%
  • Nintendo Ecosystem 6.57M vs Sony Ecosystem 4.22M
Last edited by noshten - on 09 August 2020

noshten on 09 August 2020

By week comparison after Q1:

  • Week 14: Nintendo 571.472 vs Sony 219.355(RE3)
  • Week 15: Nintendo 420.424 vs Sony 765.564(FFVII)
  • Week 16: Nintendo 395.747 vs Sony 104.561
  • Week 17: Nintendo 473.924 vs Sony 127.924 [Trial of Mana]
  • Week 18: Nintendo 490.929 vs Sony 96.392
  • Week 19: Nintendo 346.353 vs Sony 49.295
  • Week 20: Nintendo 237.727 vs Sony 30.031
  • Week 21: Nintendo 187.557 vs Sony 25.526
  • Week 22: Nintendo 322.243(Xenoblade) vs Sony 34.400
  • Week 23: Nintendo 291.081(Clubhouse) vs Sony 33.860
  • Week 24: Nintendo 224.396 vs Sony 13.495
  • Week 25: Nintendo 240.277 vs Sony 189.138(TLOU2)
  • Week 26: Nintendo 231.735 vs Sony 54.368
  • Week 27: Nintendo 178.719 vs Sony 24.243
  • Week 28: Nintendo 288.819 vs Sony 177.533(SAO) [eBaseball]
  • Week 29: Nintendo 344.065(PM) vs Sony 256.731(GoT)
  • Week 30: Nintendo 336.551 vs Sony 78.923
  • Week 31: Nintendo 242.250 vs Sony 185.640(MSG)

Switch Exclusives - 3

Playstation Exclusives - 6

Multiplat - 2

In the coming months, the majority of games will be multiplat.

Can't think of that many Playstation exclusives until the PS5 launches.

For Switch it's major exclusives aren't dated outside of Pikmin & Momotaro.



Agente42 on 11 August 2020

Amazon is not parameter but may be an indication  



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Agente42 on 11 August 2020
Marth said:

According to Chris on Era Switch restocks look to be very big across the board.
So this and next week (Obon) should be huge for Switch

But we sadly will have to wait for the Famitsu numbers.

`yeah, so sad



noshten on 13 August 2020

This Obon will be pretty interesting, I think it will likely easily outperform 3DS's best Obon where Nintendo dropped the price of the 3DS.

Expecting around 250-300K based on the data provided by Chris relating to different lotteries, what we've seen on Amazon.co.jp and other retailers. It would be very difficult in the current situation to envision Nintendo has enough Switch stock to provide more than 300K units but if they do, we might even see the Switch outperform the DS Peak years. 

  1. 2006 DS - 329K
  2. 2007 DS - 318K
  3. 2011 3DS - 218K
  4. 2012 3DS - 216K

The big winner will be Animal Crossing: New Horizon which will probably maintain around 70% attach rate. So around 175-210K sales for those two weeks. Ring Fit Adventure would be the other game that will see a big boost, it will probably get very close to those Animal Crossing numbers if there is enough stock. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Clubhouse, Paper Mario and Splatoon 2 are likely to the other top performers from a 1st Party Perspective. 

From a third party perspective eBaseball is looking like it will be the highest-selling 3rd Party game, and should be very close to 200K on the Switch after the numbers come out. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles might get close or even outperform eBaseball but depends on how many copies retailers ordered(let's see if Square again has stock problems for the Switch version).  It will be followed by the evergreens Minecraft, Fishing Spirits and Taiko. 



Chicho on 13 August 2020

Are they going to split the two weeks or are they going to lump then together? If they split, Will it be averaged of the two or actual week 32 week 33 numbers?



mk7sx on 13 August 2020

Obon week 1:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/media-create-sales-week-32-2020-aug-03-aug-09.267804/



MasonADC on 13 August 2020

That hardware number